...A Man About A Horse

keeneland april sale picks!

2010-03-30T09:59:00.001-07:00

Here are the baker's dozen that really stuck out to me! The TOP THREE definitely tower a bit above the rest, but who knows... they may run like elephants. Let's see how they sell...

139. DB.c. (4/27) Songandaprayer - Xtra Heat*Dixieland Heat

32. Ch.c. (4/25) Johannesburg - Houdini's Honey*Mr. Prospector (Coup de Folie)

112. Ch.c. (4/29) Mr. Greeley - Silver Tornado*Maria's Mon (Silvery Swan)

15. Gr.f. (1/1) Unbridled's Song - Fiery Pegasus*Fusaichi Pegasus (Baltic Sea)

164. DB.c. (4/6) Dynaformer - Changing World*Spinning World (Reach the Top)

84. B.f. (5/14) Forest Wildcat - Orate*A.P. Indy (Preach)

91. DB.f. (2/6) A.P. Indy - Pleasant Dixie*Dixieland Band (1/2 to Southern Image)

151. DB.c. (3/25) Dynaformer - Away*Dixieland Band

19. B.c. (5/5) Bernstein - Foundit*Seeking the Gold (Chaposa Springs)

23. Ch.c. (2/2) Afleet Alex - Giant Smile*Giant's Causeway (Broad Smile)

41. Gr.c. (3/10) Unbridled's Song - King Shooting Star*Storm Cat (Gone to the Moon)

14. DB.f. (5/5) Forest Wildcat - Feature Article*Seattle Slew (Glowing Tribute)

169. B.c. (5/15) Unbridled's Song - Clear Mandate*Deputy Minister

Weekend Review Feb 24, 2010

2010-02-24T11:32:00.000-08:00

Finally something to write home about! This past weekend we saw a throng of Derby preps that gave us a better idea of the contenders and dreamers galloping up to the big day. In Arkansas we saw Bob Baffert and D. Wayne Lukas put exclamations on their renaissance relevance on the Derby Trail. In California we watched a horse tower above his competition despite his evident greenness. In Louisiana we gazed as a blue-blooded colt teach a highly-regarded field that pace still makes the proverbial race. Lastly, in Florida we experienced the first ‘break-out’ race of the year by a sophomore, stamping himself as the top of his current division.

It must be stated, as many reports have fluffed upon, that the dangerous Todd Pletcher was victorious in three of the four states, and now holds what must be considered the strongest pre-Derby hand since D. Wayne Lukas’ 1995 trio of Serena’s Song, Timber Country, and Thunder Gulch (who would go on to finish 16th, 3rd, and 1st on the first Saturday in May). The most impressive of these was Eskendereya, who has been on top of my Derby list since September. Eskendereya’s style is similar to the aforementioned Derby winner, Thunder Gulch. He has enough speed and ease to place him anywhere they wish, and his grinding, devastating efficient action puts horses away before he even has a length in front of them. If you do not believe me, take a look at the 1995 Travers Stakes.

Eskendereya is a rarity in that he is exactly what his pedigree says. By Giant’s Causeway, he has the type of tenacity you would expect from a sire whose grit was only eclipsed by one horse (Tiznow) in his career. He is out of a Seattle Slew mare, meaning his cruising speed is ridiculous. The final, and perhaps most vital for the rest of his season, is his bottom female line. His second dam, Altair, is by Alydar. Alydar infuses into his progeny a push-button acceleration (see: Easy Goer, Alysheba, Criminal Type). Altair’s dam is Stellar Odyssey, a Northern Dancer (do we really have to explain that influence?) mare out of Queen Sucree, by Ribot. The last part is the most important. Queen Sucree is not only by the most influential cross-pond stamina influence (and one of the best racehorses in history) in Ribot, but she is a half sister to Halo. Halo is one of the most versatile sires in history, with his progeny winning on any surface or distance (see: Devil’s Bag, Sunday Silence, Saint Ballado, Glorious Song, Sunny’s Halo), wet or dry. So, there you have it, the perfect pedigree with the closest inbreeding being Northern Dancer at 4x4! Wow. Let’s hope he lives up to my hype. In the meantime, check out his domination of the Florida Derby here.

Another who impressed me this week was D. Wayne Lukas’ Dublin, who regained good form in his Southwest placing, behind Bob Baffert’s Conveyance. I have been hoping Lukas would take the pedigree hint (Dublin’s sire is Afleet Alex) and drop him back to make one run, and finally it happened! Conveyance may have won the race on pure speed and class, but Dublin ran like a horse who is going to be ready for a fruitful First Saturday in May. Check out the race here, and watch how Dublin drops back and makes a huge 5/16mile run.

In Louisiana, like Arkansas, the most intriguing finish was the place, not the winner. Tempted to Tapit has been highly regarded by this writer since his Maiden Special Weight romp at Aqueduct in January (earning a fantastic 100 Beyer Speed Figure). He was then put into arguably the toughest of this past weekend’s Derby preps, the Risen Star Stakes. A front-runner, he broke flat-footed, and had already lost position to eventual winner and pace dawdler, Discreetly Mine. David Cohen, his jockey, did a great job of relaxing the horse and teaching him how to rate, given the circumstances, and he made this giant jump in class look easy as he finished a valiant second. Watch out for him in his next race. When he is able to get the rail and dictate the pace, he is going to be one tough animal to run down. His only question mark is stamina. He may not be ready for ten furlongs at this moment in his development.

The last horse that caught my eye this weekend was back at Gulfstream in the Hutcheson stakes. Spectacular Bid Stakes winner A Little Warm made a fantastic effort to run down heavy the heavy favorite, D’Funnybone (see the race here). This colt seems to be screaming for more distance, but this seven furlong step was a necessary one, if they expect him to go two turns next out. His speed figures for his last two races were 100 and 97, so he is fast enough and has the right style. I would like to see Anthony Dutrow take him to the Tampa Bay Derby, and then give him a long stretch to look at in the Illinois Derby (1,320 feet of Hawthorne’s stretch is over 100 feet longer than Churchill Downs’).

As far as your three other winners, Connemara and Discreetly Mine proved that their class and pedigrees were, indeed, congruent, winning with everything going their way, despite some minor green habits by the former. D’Funnybone stamped himself as a possibly great miler this year, in a division that seems to only have one other possible great miler (Noble’s Promise). Lastly, Conveyance proved that he can move up the ladder, but also put fear in those who once thought he looked like a ten furlong horse.

My Current Kentucky Quatorze:
1. Eskendereya
2. Super Saver
3. Sidney’s Candy
4. Rule
5. Caracortado
6. A Little Warm
7. Dublin
8. Tempted to Tapit
9. Lookin’ At Lucky
10. Buddy’s Saint
11. Dave in Dixie
12. General Maximus
13. Discreetly Mine
14. Lentenor

pace makes the race

2009-10-19T18:06:00.001-07:00

Presious Passion is ready to go.

BC Marathon rankings

2009-10-15T22:47:00.000-07:00

1. Mastery 110

The horse to beat. Godolphin has been pointing him to this.

2. Septimus 106

Has been off for a while, but Ballydoyle is strong off a layoff.

3. Nite Light 105

If he gets an easy lead, he loves 14f. Looked great in last two.

4. Father Time 104

Has the closing kick and classy connection to contend.

5. Muhannak 102

Has apparently lost more than a step.

6. Alaazo 101

Love how he's coming into this race, and the distance is his strength.

7. Unusual Suspect 101

A return to his Cougar II win makes him tough. 14f a big question.

8. Eldaafer 100

Amazing bloodlines and a great horse, but has peaked this year.

9. Alcomo 99

On his best day, and if he adapts to the surface, he make the board.

10. Free Fighter 99

Could be a player, but needs to answer a lot of questions.

11. Rising Moon 96

A shipping Dick Dutrow is always tough, but he is merely ordinary.

12. Soldier's Dancer 95

Interesting play if he runs, but he is a step below the best.

13. Bold Chieftain 94

The distance is a question, despite great 9f Cal-Cup win.

14. Cloudy's Knight 102

With his breeding, the Pro-Ride should be perfect, but is running at KEE.

15. Temple City 93

In over his head. But, only slightly.

BC Mile rankings

2009-10-15T12:21:00.000-07:00

1. Goldikova 112
Extremely tough. Enough said.
2. Zacinto 110
Moving quickly in the right direction.
3. Ferneley 109
The most overlooked horse here. The best of the Americans.
4. Delegator 108
This has been his focus, and he had a nice break in the Summer.
5. Sight Winner 107
If they bring him, his HK Mile form is good enough to make top 3.
6. Justenuffhumor 106
On a hard surface, he will return to his brilliance- which is almost good enough.
7. Varenar 108
The Foret race was impressive.
8. Whatsthescript 106
He is classy and loves the course. He will be coming late and peaking here.
9. Cowboy Cal 105
Pace scenario is against him, and his finish isn't Euro-worthy, but he's consistent.
10. Sterwins 104.5
Loved his last two closing races.
11. Diamondrella 104
Has an impressive closing punch and looks like she will improve off her win.
12. Karelian 103.5
Excellent in the soft, but doubt he can do it on the hard going with these.
13. Court Vision 103
Looked really good, but is, as always, a step below the best.
14. Jungle Wave 102
If he doesn't go into the Turf Sprint, he is a classy, dangerous horse.
15. Battle of Hastings 101.5
Ultra-consistent, hard-turf loving type who will be trying.
16. Sweet Hearth 100.5
Not as impressive to me as her stablemate.
17. Mr. Sidney 100
He is consistent at this distance, and impeccably bred (for dirt), but is still slow.
18. Free Fighter 99
Good horse. Not good enough.
19. Cosmonaut 98
Always tough in a big race, but past his prime.
20. Courageous Cat 97
The horse to watch out for next year in this division (or on dirt).
21. Take the Points 96
Should stick with his division until he's fast enough for these.
22. Straight Story 95
Ditto.

Oak Tree Rantings

2009-10-09T09:37:00.000-07:00

Oak Tree is a well-oiled machine, it seems. After a few weeks here, I have come to notice that it is a boutique meet at a non-boutique track. Santa Anita, at first impression, is one of the proverbial palaces of sports. It, unlike Keeneland or many east coast tracks, is completely designed for the spectator. Despite all the amenities and high-end availabilities, this track has no air of elitism. Being in the L.A. area, on top of that, makes it even more impressive.

To follow my adventures in L.A., in photos, CLICK HERE!

BC Classic rankings

2009-10-07T15:46:00.001-07:00

Rank Horse ASP Comment

1. Rip Van Winkle 115

It scares me how confident O'Brien is in this one.

2. Sea the Stars 115

The class.

3. Quality Road 113

Love him on the synthetic, pedigree-wise.

4. Zenyatta 112.5

Will be coming.

5. Mastercraftsman 112

Slight edge, speed and pedigree-wise over the big favorite.

6. Summer Bird 111

Always trying; a cut below the top 5.

7. Richard's Kid 110

Improving and in the right barn.

8. Rail Trip 110

If he returns to his summer speed, he's tough.

9. Tiago 110

Will. Run. Well.

10. Einstein 109

Fresh and dangerous off a 9 week break.

11. Furthest Land 109

Loved his race and his # in the last one.

12. Gio Ponti 108

Good on Pro-Ride; knows how to win; loves 10f.

13. Colonel John 108

Better on turf.

14. Gone Astray 108

Sneaky good runner; getting better.

15. Mine That Bird 107

Great closing kick may love Pro-Ride

16. Parading 106.5

Always there; better at 9 than 10f.

17. Chocolate Candy 106.5

A cut below the best.

18. Misremembered 106

Getting better, but is probably better suited to the Dirt Mile.

19. Regal Ransom 105

Could set the pace and hang on for a piece of it.

20. Tres Borrachos 105

I could actually repeat the above sentence for this one, too.

21. Awesome Gem 102

Returning to great form; is better in slop than synthetics.

22. Nite Light 104.5

Loved his last race in the slop at Hawthorne.

23. Bullsbay 104

Off an injury; could be a nice wild card.

24. Macho Again 104

Looks to have peaked.

25. It's a Bird 104

Classy, but too many question marks.

breeders' cup analysis/top 10 (JUVENILE)

2009-09-09T10:45:00.000-07:00

It's the first 10 days of September... you know what that means?! Yes, it's BC Juvenile crazy time!

Let us first say that Dublin was good but not impressive. The same can be said for Lookin' at Lucky on the West Coast. The big factors here, though, are they are trained by horsemen who are being slyly conservative with their charges. Aikenite and Aspire were impressive, but took advantage of a hot pace.

Backtalk, the previously undefeated winner of two graded stakes, was impressive in defeat. As he is a certified grinder who never changed leads in the stretch, he ran on to finish well, considering that. One has to wonder if he may be a better horse closer to the pace with his grinding style. I think, around two turns, you will see him closer to the pace. Had he changed leads, I believe he would have easily secured second, despite his 5-wide trip from the outside post. Still none of these colts are in my top three juveniles of the moment.

Believe it or not, the three I place first have yet to go over 6.5 furlongs, but I believe they will progress quickly. My rankings (with links to pedigrees and sire/damsire lines):

1. Sidney's Candy (Candy Ride - Storm Cat)

So impressive in his last two races. SO impressive. And, you know my adoration of all Candy Rides... especially those whose granddam was the brilliant and sturdy Exchange.

2. General Maximus (Freud - Good and Tough)

My favorite debut of the year (July 5f Belmont). Screamed speed and distance abilities. 93 Beyer.

3. Discreetly Mine (Mineshaft - Private Account)

Bred to be something special (half to Discreet Cat). Watch him next out in the Futurity. The best bet to upset D'Funnybone.

4. Dublin (Afleet Alex - Storm Bird)

Knows how to win and has a trainer hungry for a comeback. Best bred of these.

5. Lookin' at Lucky (Smart Strike - Belong to Me)

Knows how to win, already. Reminds me of so many other Baffert slightly-above-pars.

6. Backtalk (Smarty Jones - Affirmed)

Grinder who may be better on synthetic, or equally as good (much like his half sister Bsharpsonata).

7. Bulldogger (Dixie Union - Tricky Creek)

Speedy Baffert charge who is bred to be a miler. May be a good colt up to 8.5F.

8. Aspire (Tale of the Cat - Southern Halo)

A great effort in his second start. Pletcher is always dangerous.

9. Liston (Storm Cat - Metfield)

Look for a big rebound next time out for this half brother to super-impressive Country Star, out of a Kentucky Oaks runner-up (also an Ashland-G1 winner).

10. D'Funnybone (D'Wildcat - Woodman)

Looks like a true miler with a sprinter on top of a 10f bred (Woodman/Roberto) mare. With Roberto and Lyphard in there, he is bred to adore the synthetic. May be able to stretch on there, as well. Watch out for him next out. Should go to CA instead of the Futurity (for both the distance and to avoid Discreetly Mine), but I doubt he will.

woodward '09

2009-09-05T13:14:00.000-07:00

3. Rachel Alexandria 112

6. Asiatic Boy 108

4. Macho Again 107

5. It's a Bird 106

2. Bullsbay 105

7. Past the Point 104

1a. Cool Coal Man 103

1. Da Tara 98

I expect Rachel to bounce slightly out of that brilliant win, last out. Still, she will be nearly impossible to beat if she gets into a nice stalking rhythm. The big danger is Asiatic Boy. He has proven to be a ridiculously talented individual who can stalk and burst away from a field. His UAE Derby win was more than impressive, and he looks to win if she does not. Macho Again and It's a Bird have been aimed for this race, but I think Macho Again is the better bet, being that he is second-race-off-layoff. Bullsbay could repeat his last race and win or place second in this race, but I doubt it. I think he likes the track, but is in a much tougher race this time. Past the Point is now, apparently, a closer. This will help him today, but I have yet to see him beat anyone that wasn't easy to outrun or run down. Da Tara and Cool Coal Man are within a couple lengths of these on their best days, but I doubt they will be able to repeat their best feats here.

forego '09

2009-09-05T11:53:00.000-07:00

5. Riley Tucker 106

2. Kodiak Kowboy 106

4. Peace Chant 103

6. Gold Trippi 102

1. Pyro 101

7. Driven by Success 99

10. My Pal Charlie 98

12. Keep Laughing 97

11. True Quality 96

9. Law Enforcement 95

8. Multitude 93

3. Ready's Echo 91

My Pal Charlie is a better 8-9 furlong horse. He will be tough, but is still in over his head. In this race, with it being this deep, I must say that the two horses that stick out to me are Kodiak Kowboy and Riley Tucker. True, I think Peace Chant, Gold Trippi and Pyro will be right there, but the two who seem to be perfectly suited to this race are the aforementioned. Of the two, Riley Tucker is a very hot longshot. Trained by my favorite trainer, Baffert, and ridden by my favorite jockey, Prado, it is hard to go against him. Peace Chant is a tough one, as we do not know, YET, how good he is. He has had too many physical issues to show it. O'Neill has proven he can win Saratoga races (see: Maryfield), which helps his cause. He is the best-bred sprinter in the field, by brilliant dual-surface miler War Chant, out of champion sprinter Safely Kept. What a race!

Wilkes' day to Shine - picks for Travers Day

2009-08-28T20:45:00.000-07:00

Race 2:

Much Rejoicing, though not trained by someone known for his juveniles, is a brilliantly bred filly by Distorted Humor, out of Soaring Softly, a champion turf mare (who had a decent dirt pedigree).

Race 3:

#1, Great Crusade, if he drops back and makes one run, could prove a great bet at 20-1. His mother, Victory USA, was a really talented runner. His father, Awesome Again, is known as a late developing sire. #2, Eagle Strike, comes from one of the best families in the country. He is by the Capote mare, True Flare, who has produced a great deal of dirt stakes winners. He is the horse to beat.

Race 4 , Lure Stakes:

If it stays on the turf, and is wet, #9 is the horse to beat. He's trained by Saratoga danger, Mott, and won last out under these same conditions when it was yielding. Leparoux is the last piece that makes me look past everyone else.

Race 6:

If it goes off the turf, #3 The Roundhouse is the horse to beat. He has never had a chance to go 9 furlongs (which is what it'll be on the dirt), and is bred to love it.

Race 7 , Victory Ride-G3:

1. Bold Union 94

7. Selva 92

8. Sara Louise 91

4. Sky Haven 90

6. Step Out Smartly 89

3. Reforestation 88

5. Juliet's Spirit 87

1a. All of Her Twist 86

2. Trix in the City 84

Race 8:

One to watch is #8 Moonlark, who is part of that Thoroughbred Legends Racing experiment. By Gone West, out of a Phone Trick mare, he may be a rare first-out winner from Lukas. His horses from the TLRStable have been firing, like Dublin. Phone Trick being on the damside is a real kicker for me. Plus the mare, Laptop, was a good one. Otherwise, #1 Bulldogger is the horse to beat, and #4 Kajiwara is right behind him.

Race 9 Ballston Spa Hcp:

1. Rutherienne 100

7. Cocoa Beach 99

2. My Princess Jess 97

3. Closeout 96

6. Captain's Lover 96

8. Salve Germania 94

5. Teamgeist 91

4. Dyna's Lassie 90

I hope Rutherienne, still one of my favorites, destroys this field... and she just might if she has a good ride and clean trip.

Race 10 Ballerina:

4. Indian Blessing 105

3. Tar Heel Mom 98

1. Music Note 97

2. Informed Decision 97

5. Modification 93

6. P.S.U. Grad 90

Tar Heel Mom is the best chance at upsetting the favorite. Music Note will be coming late, and informed decision needs it to be sloppy in order to run well. Still, she's a couple lengths slower off the synthetic. It's Indian Blessing's race to win or lose, but if she can't get by her, the upset chance is Tar Heel Mom.

Race 11 King's Bishop:

3. Capt. Candyman Can 108

2. Munnings 107

8. Big Drama 106

1. Vineyard Haven 101

7. Flat Bold 100

1a. Everyday Heroes 98

5. Despite the Odds 97

4. Not for Silver 96

6. Prince Joshua 94

Munnings has peaked, but is faster than most these. I think Capt. Candyman Can will be peaking today and get the best of him. This is THE toughest race of the day.

Race 12 Travers:

3. Warrior's Reward 108

6. Summer Bird 107

4. Quality Road 107

2. Charitable Man 105

7. Kensai 104

5. Our Edge 102

1. Hold Me Back 95

If it's a little wet and this pace sets up as it seems, the one horse who will get first jump (and be fast enough to take on) Quality Road is Warrior's Reward. I love the way Summer Bird is coming up to the race, as well. Personally, I doubt Kensai will get the distance, and I think the first four here are bred for the classic races, while the last three are a few lengths behind. 3-6 exacta box should pay well.

rachel alexandra the great

2009-08-12T10:22:00.000-07:00

Rachel Alexandra worries me. She just peaked. Her last two races were of astounding brilliance. It's that kind of bold speed that you can't keep running, no matter how good a trainer is at honing it. Curlin had three brilliant wins and should have had more of a break to get him back to that point, but he didn't. He kept on running and racing, and slowly but surely becoming less impressive, despite being victorious.

Granted, Dubai can take some starch out, but that is why you need more than three months off. You need 6 months, minimum. The only horses I have seen exit Dubai as better animals were Victory Gallop and Formal Gold. I cannot explain those horses. Perhaps they were the leggy, light types that ship well and don't turn a hair. Or, in Formal Gold's case, perhaps he was just rounding into form and about to turn into a freak on us. Either way, they are the exception. All in all, I would rest her a few weeks and run her in the Jockey Club Gold Cup to close out her year.

a lotta zenyatta

2009-08-11T13:41:00.000-07:00

Zenyatta, once again, showed that she doesn't care for the synthetic as much as people would like to think. She is bred distinctly for regular dirt. Street Cry's offspring always handle the synthetics, but excel on the dirt. For those of you who think that she won't be able to catch a horse like Rachel Alexandra in a dirt race with innately speed-favoring tendencies, think again. It's true, personally I think Rachel Alexandra on her best day is better than Zenyatta's best, but it's a lot closer on a dirt track, and her owners are stupid for not sending her to the surface on wh

ich she looked her absolute best (her devastating Apple Blossom and subsequent highest career Beyer of 110).

the commentator has left the building

2009-08-10T13:22:00.000-07:00

Commentator finally bit the big one. He was slowing down, so it is good to see him go out in-the-money at Saratoga. He ran

his race, but he has yet to compete at the same level of his Mass Cap win from last year. Live and let die, I say. He has had enough rests and comebacks to know that we actually have seen his best, and he falls into the enviable category of one of the few to break the 120 Beyer mark in more than one two-turn event.

This gelding really was talented. He had that cruising rate that would burn others into the ground, but always was tough on the horse, himself. High cruising horses have brute muscle strength, and that wreaks havoc on the rest of the body. This is one of the reasons he was seen so sparsely throughout his career.

His best race, in my opinion, was his first Whitney win versus Saint Liam. He not only had to blitz fractions, but he had to fight to win the race on a track that often will favor a horse with Saint Liam's mid-pack style.

He was a fast mother, and I look forward to seeing what happens now that he is gone. Who will be the next horse running Candy Ride-style Beyers.

Del Mar: Bing Crosby

2009-08-08T10:22:00.000-07:00

Bing Crosby

1. Zensational 107

6. Talkin to Mom Roo 103

4. Delta Storm 99

5. Hurry Up Austin 94

2. Bahama Breeze 93

3. Global Hunter 89

Talkin to Mom Roo looks like a very sly bet here. I can easily see Delta Storm and Bahama Breeze taking the race to Zensational to disallow the feisty sophomore an easy lead. If the soften the big favorite up at all, Roo is the way to go. He has actually run equally as fast as Zensational, but the difference is we have yet to see how fast the Zen is. Best Bets: Zensational & Talkin to Mom Roo.

Saratoga: Test & Whitney

2009-08-08T10:05:00.000-07:00

Test

2. Cat Moves 98

6. Flashing 98

5. First Passage 93

4. Heart Ashley 90

7. Reforestation 89

8. All of Her Twist 88

1. Pretty Prolific 87

3. Olde Glamour 82

Flashing had the heat put on her in the Mother Goose, and that 9 furlong sprint should have her wound pretty tightly for this race. I think she is the best bet to beat Cat Moves. Otherwise, Cat Moves is a tough filly to beat. Tony Dutrow comes from the school of Frankel, and that means that their horses run at a top-level race-after-race... not just one huge peak performance. First Passage wins this if she repeats her last race, but I doubt a 10 length jump in her last race will not beget a bounce. Even with the bounce, she's really well-bred and her sire-given grit and overall class will keep her near the front at the end. Heart Ashley needs to learn to rate to win this, and the rest are very closely bunched in talent. Best Bets: Cat Moves & First Passage.

Whitney

4. Macho Again 108

7. Commentator 107

1. Smooth Air 106

6. Dry Martini 103

3. Bullsbay 100

5. Tizway 98

I can see Commentator going out to his customary lead, but being run down by the relentless Saratoga-loving Macho Uno. This horse always seems to beat me when I count him out, so let's hope some faith helps me. Smooth Air and Dry Martini will be coming, as well. I do fear that Commentator has lost a step. Best Bets: Macho Again & Smooth Air.

Arlington stakes picks

2009-08-08T06:38:00.000-07:00

Secretariat

9. Black Bear Island 96

10. Giant Oak 94

1a. Driving Snow 92

4. Laureate Conductor 92

5. Oil Man 91

7. Take the Points 91

8. Reb 89

3. Proceed Bee 86

6. Quite a Handful 85

1. Cliffy's Future 80

2. Hoosier Kingdom 76

Black Bear Island, if he runs like his Dante win (at 10.5 furlongs), wins this. Giant Oak, if he doesn't regress again, runs well, and Driving Snow looks to be something special. Clement is always dangerous at this meet, so watch out for Laureate Conductor. Oil Man, Take the Points, and Reb are great bets to be in there for the exotics, but none seem to have a stronger punch than the previous four. Best bets: Black Bear Island and Laureate Conductor.

Beverly D

5. Mad About You 101

7. Dynaforce 100

1. Alnadana 99

2. Pure Clan 99

4. Black Mamba 98

8. Denomnation 96

3. Points of Grace 95

6. Tizaqueena 90

Really tough race. If the real Dynaforce shows up, she can dispose of Tizaqueena on the corner and open up on this field. Mad About You, if she returns to her form of last year, has the class to draw away from this field, and Pure Clan & Black Mamba will be coming, no matter what. The safest bets are Pure Clan and Mad About You.

Arlington Million

8. Cima de Triomphe 109

6. Gio Ponti 108

7. Gloria de Campeao 107

1. Einstein 105

4. Stotsfold 104

3. Just As Well 102

2. Presious Passion 101

5. Mr. Sidney 99

9. Recapture the Glory 90

Cima ran fourth to the top 3 turf horses in the world in his last race. Enough said. Gio Ponti is going to be there no matter what, but I think he may have peaked in his last race when winning easily at a distance that should have been slightly out of his range. Gloria de Campeao loves the left-handed course and distance, and will be sitting in the proverbial catbird seat. I love Pascal Bary, his trainer, and respect the hell out of his ability to ship winners over here. Einstein is always a good bet for in-the-money, but his numbers are a length or two too slow for the top three. Best Bets: Gio Ponti and Gloria de Campeao.

Weekend Stakes - Fri/Sat

2009-07-31T10:54:00.000-07:00

Lake George Stakes
This is as wide open a race as you will find. The filly who looks the most promising is the wonderfully-bred Lady Shakespeare. There are also a couple fillies in here who look like they will go off at a decent value (Mary's Follies and Strike the Bell), and then there is the crowd favorite, Shug McGaughey's Consequence. I could go on and on, but I will make a quick prediction. Kiawah Cat is trained by Mott and moves to the arms of Julien Leparoux. Leparoux is amazing on horses with her come-from-behind style.

1. Kiawah Cat

2. The Best Day Ever

3. Consequence

4. Lady Shakespeare

West Virginia Derby

It's hard to pick against Mine that Bird, especially in this field, but I have to say that the pace scenario is dead-against him. I will take a shot and pick the Canadian, Monty's Best, who is a really quality colt. He ran a great second in the Iriquois in his lone dirt start last year. Since then he has won both his starts back at 6 and 8.5 furlongs over Woodbine's Polytrack. He may be better on

conventional dirt, though, and his pedigree can stretch to the distance. He should do well sitting right off Big Drama and Soul Warrior and out sprinting Mine That Bird to the wire.

1. Monty's Best

2. Mine That Bird

3. Big Drama

4. Soul Warrior

Diana Stakes

It will take something huge to stop Forever Together from winning this race. Rutherienne may go to Monmouth to avoid her, and Criticism would have to set a :52 half on firm turf to win this over the Champion. Look for the other Clement filly to run well, also.

1. Forever Together

2. Rutherienne

3. Criticism

4. Carribean Sunset

Jim Dandy Stakes

Charitable Man gets a pace set-up and distance that fit him. He's a talented horse and if he's right, he wins this- no matter how good Kensai is getting. The six pound distance between Warrior's Reward and Kensai will come into play, though, and Convocation is improving

quickly enough to make some noise.

1. Charitable Man

2. Warrior's Reward

3. Kensai

4. Convocation

Thoughts on the Man o' War-G1

2009-07-11T12:53:00.001-07:00

MAN O' WAR STAKES
BELMONT PARK
11 Furlongs - Turf
Grade 1

The feeling here is that it is a lot tighter than it seems. I think Marsh Side and Quijano are being overlooked. To me, Dancing Forever is the horse to beat, not Gio Ponti (as the odds will tell you). Additionally, Grant Couturier is really dangerous if he is in better shape than his trainer is letting on. Midships is a wild card, but I doubt he will run to his lofty expectations here. For value's sake, I would throw Marsh Side on top and see if he floats up to 10-1.

4. Marsh Side
8. Dancing Forever
9. Gio Ponti
3. Quijano
2. Grand Couturier
7. Midships
5. Interpatation
6. Chinchon
1. Musketier

Fasig Tipton Saratoga Top Picks

2009-07-10T17:12:00.000-07:00

From the upcoming Saratoga Select Sale:

My top 4 hips to watch for this sale are as follows:

1.) Hip 7 Ch. f. 08 (Henny Hughes-Sass Me*Carson City) (4/30)

This daughter of the first crop of speedster Henny Hughes (by Hennessy), comes from a sire who could carry his speed around one turn up to 8.5 furlongs (second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Belmont), while coming from a dam whose half sisters are two of the fastest female sprinters we have seen in quite some time: Madcap Escapade and Dubai Escapade. The former was able to carry her speed up to a mile around two turns, and was also a daughter of Hennessy, making this filly a very close relation. Add to this the bold precociousness and damsire prowess of Carson City (arguably the in the best three juvenile sires of our time, along with Meadowlake and Phone Trick... and he is also the damsire of Barbaro), and you have a filly who looks like she will absolutely fly. And, fly early.

2. Hip 66 B.c.08 (Mr. Greeley-Angel's Nest*Storm Cat) (3/14)

Mr. Greeley always shocks me with his quality as a sire. He was a stellar sprinter/miler his entire career, but never flashed the kind of brilliance that hinted at his chances as a stallion. He tends to beget good milers with high cruising rates, on all three surfaces. Add to this the best-bred dam in the sale, Angel's Nest (Storm Cat-Miesque), and you have a colt who is bred to run on anything, and be a superior miler. Miesque has given her offspring the same brilliant turn of foot that she had, and Storm Cat adds speed, grit, and classic brilliance to his offspring. This colt should be the sale topper, but Mr. Greeley still is not as flashy as the A.P. Indys and Unbridled's Songs.

3. Hip 110 DB.f.08 (Giant's Causeway-Dancethruthestorm*Thunder Gulch) (2/15)(ONT)

This filly has Queen's Plate written all over her. By Giant's Causeway, from the great Sam-Son family of Dance Smartly, with the endurance and classic grittiness of Thunder Gulch added. This filly will run on everything short of broken glass. Enough said.

4. Hip 221 Gr.c.08 (Unbridled's Song-Pure Symmetry*Storm Cat/Serena's Song)(3/15)

What has to be the second-best bred colt in the sale is this son of Unbridled's Song, out of Pure Symmetry (Storm Cat-Serena's Song). Not only was Serena's Song an amazing racemare, but she has passed on her genes to produce multiple G1 and G2 winners. If you add in the Unbridled's Song influence, you have a colt with a similar genetic makeup as MGSW Harlington (Unbridled-Serena's Song), but with more speed with the addition of Storm Cat, and more scope (Trolley Song/Caro). This colt has classic distance and tactical speed written all over him.

DERBY DAY STAKES PICKS (w/ ASP)

2009-05-02T08:46:00.000-07:00

ADOLPHSON SPEED RATINGS

PICKS - Saturday (DERBY Day)

Race 6 - The Churchill Downs Sprint
1. My Pal Charlie 103
3. Kodiak Kowboy 102
2. The Roundhouse 99
9. Sok Sok 98
5. Spotsgone 97
4. Ide Like a Double 94
6. Accredit 93
8. Silver Edition 92
7. Hewitts 88

This is the always-important 2nd-race off a layoff for My Pal Charlie. Kodiak Kowboy will be flying late along w/ The Roundhouse, and Sok Sok will be setting a rapid pace. This sets up for My Pal Charlie.

Race 7 - The Eight Belles Stakes
1. Just Jenda 94
4. Four Gifts 93
10. Auspicious 92
7. Loveyou Everybody 88
3. C.S. Silk 86
5. Warrior Maid 85
8. Lady's Laughter 84
2. She's Extreme 72
6. Dave's Revenge 72

Four Gifts and Auspicious are coming up to the race really well for Asmussen (trainer), but Just Jenda has been pointed for this race for a while. She will be tough.

Race 8 - Churchill Distaff Turf Mile
2. Visit 98
9. Elusive Lady 94
10. Rustic Flame 92
1. Lemon Chiffon 92
11. Dawn After Dawn 91
7. Ballymore Lady 91
6. Sugar Mint 90
3. Tizaqueena 90
5. Zee Zee 85
8. Stealin' Kisses 85
4. Rasierra 82

Visit and Elusive Lady are the mares to beat. Visit is the better of the two... she just needs a good trip. If she gets that, she'll run them into the ground and nip them at the wire.

Race 9 - Humana Distaff
9. Game Face 102
5. Secret Gypsy 101
4. Bear Now 99
7. Royale Michele 96
2. Dubai Majesty 95
3. Informed Decision 95
1. Tiz to Dream 90
8. Modification 89
6. Temple Street 79

Secret Gypsy is the fastest and Game Face is the most reliable. At 7 furlongs of distance, I pick the latter, especially after her last race looked so good.

Race 10 - Woodford Reserve Turf Classic
8. Cowboy Cal 105
6. Einstein 103
3. Proudinsky 102
4. Court Vision 102
9. Zambezi Sun 102
1. Artiste Royal 100
5. Yate's Black Cat 99
2. El Caballo 98
10. Thorn Song 96
7. Furthest Land 95

Einstein is the horse to beat and Proudinsky is really reliable. Court Vision and Zambezi will be flying late, but prefer longer races. The overlooked horse in the race is Cowboy Cal, who is fast enough to compete, and is always tough to run down. I think he will hold off Einstein and outsprint the rest. If not, Zambezi Sun is the wild card. He is faster than all of them-- but he needs more distance.

Race 11 - Kentucky Derby
13. I Want Revenge 111
7. Papa Clem 107
15. Dunkirk 106
6. Friesan Fire 106
16. Poineerof the Nile 105
1. West Side Bernie 104
12. General Quarters 104
19. Desert Party 103
2. Musket Man 103
17. Summer Bird 102
20. Flying Private 100
10. Regal Ransom 99
11. Chocolate Candy 98
5. Hold Me Back 97
14. Atomic Rain 97
3. Mr. Hot Stuff 96
18. Nowhere to Hide 94
8. Mine That Bird 93
4. Advice 92
9. Join in the Dance 90

In a fairly run race, I Want Revenge is the fastest. Papa Clem is going to be great odds, and is a tough tough tough competitor. Dunkirk will be flying late but needs a fast pace, which is not a given. Friesan Fire is in peak shape, and will be right there. He was my #1 for a long time, but he has to outkick I Want Revenge- which is impossible if I Want Revenge is in peak condition. The wildcard in this race is Pioneerof the Nile. He has never run in dirt, but is brilliant. If he likes the dirt, he is in the top 2, and maybe even beats them all. I Want Revenge is the safest bet.

Stakes Picks for Oaks Day

2009-05-01T09:45:00.000-07:00

ADOLPHSON SPEED RATINGS
PICKS - Friday (Oaks Day)

Race 6 - Aegon Turf Sprint
6. Chamberlain Bridge 100
2. Smart Enough 100
5. Due Date 98
7. Cannonball 97
3. Hewitts 95
4. Captivating Cat 94
8. Accredit 94
1. Chitoz 88
9. Jazz Nation 88

Chamberlain Bridge will be hard to run down, but the only horse who looks good enough to do it is Smart Enough. They are my 1-2. Due Date will be coming late and Cannonball will be right there.

Race 7 - The Louisville Distaff
4. One Caroline 105
2. Zenyatta 104
1. Swift Temper 98
8. Unbridled Belle 98
3. Miss Isella 92
6. Modification 91
5. Unforgotten 88
7. French Kiss 86

Zenyatta (HUGE favorite) is vulnerable in a race with a front-runner, One Caroline, who has run numbers just as fast as her, and will have very little competition on the pace.

Race 8 - Edgewood Stakes
7. Magical Affair 89
10. Laragh 88
11. Diamond Tags 87
1. Excelente 86
4. Abbott Hall 86
8. More of the Best 84
3. Banker's Choice 83
2. Fleet Streak 79
6. Complicity 77
5. Walloon 75
9. Mein Fraulein 72
12. Kiss Mine 69

Magical Affair has the right running style to run down the front-running Laragh and Diamond Tags, while Excelente and Abbot Hall should be right in the mix.

Race 9 - Alysheba Stakes
8. Dr.Pleasure 104
1. Macho Again 103
5. Bullsbay 102
3. Mambo in Seattle 102
10. Informed 100
2. Ready Set 96
4. Cool Coal Man 94
6. Star Guitar 93
9. Prom Shoes 92
7. Shift in Power 86

Dr. Pleasure, like his mother, is putting it all together at late age. Macho Again is the horse to beat, while Maryland horse (woohoo!), Bullsbay is looking like he is in peak form.

Race 10 - American Turf
3. Battle of Hastings (GB) 94
5. Skipadate 93
6. Bittel Road 92
1. Stormalory 91
2. Jack Spratt 88
7. Turfiste 85
9. Orthodox 82
8. Bunker HIll 80
4. Bruce N Autumn 79

If Skipadate and Bittel Road return to their old forms, they will be 1-2. Otherwise, Battle of Hastings is the horse to beat.

Race 11 - Kentucky Oaks
6. Rachel Alexandra 107
8. Flying Spur 104
5. Justwhistledixie 100
7. Nan 96
4. Gabby's Golden Gal 94
2. Be Fair 92
1. Tweeter 85
3. Stone Legacy 70

Flying Spur is dangerous, and Justwhistledixie is tough, but Rachel Alexandra should win. She is just the best.

DERBY COMMENTARY 4/30/09

2009-04-30T13:20:00.000-07:00

I really want to, form-wise, throw Desert Party in my top 5... but I can't trust a horse that Dettori did not follow over when they don't have a big horse for the 2000 Guineas. Right now, I think General Quarters and Friesan Fire have the perfect running style for this race. General Quarters outsprinting (last 3/8) all the synth horses in their last respective races (while also having awesome dirt form) is pretty enticing. I choose GQ over FF because of his post (to FF's outside) and his jockey, who is patient and will outsmart Saez & Talamo @ CD. I don't like Papa Clem to win, but he is too well-bred and ran in the most Derby-esque race, last out. He has the will, but I doubt he's fast enough. I worry that Talamo will be too confident (and drop him too far back) on I Want Revenge in his horse and won't be able to run down the top two from mid-pack. I cannot trust the closers in a race where I predict that the pace will not be too insanely fast. Of the two speed horses, they're side-by-side (which means they won't be rushing to clear from the outside), and Alan Garcia on Regal Ransom will be happy to take off the flank of Join in the Dance (I wouldn't be surprised if his running is being subsidized by Coolmore). Flying Private won't be hurt by the outside, because he has natural stalking speed and posts 15-18 will be drop-back closers. At least, that's what I believe. I think if the horse has any great talent AT ALL, it will be squeezed out of him by the same connections that shocked everyone with a brilliant 2nd place with Proud Citizen (who had a similar running style). The BIGGEST factor in this race, in my opinion, is whether or not Regal Ransom relaxes off Join in the Dance. If he does, which I doubt, he vaults to the #4 spot for me.

Current (often changing) top 5:
1. General Quarters
2. Friesan Fire
3. I Want Revenge
4. Papa Clem / (Regal Ransom)
5. Flying Private

Hating leaving these guys out... but you have to do it to someone...
6. Dunkirk (pace needs to be hot to outrun the top 3 late)
7. Hold Me Back (dirt doubts)
8. Chocolate Candy (unreliable jockey won't use his natural tractibility)
9. Desert Party (post position)
10. Poineerof the Nile (what running style will help him? is he that good?)

Big doubts
11. Musket Man (post position and endurance)
12. West Side Bernie (post position will kill him and drop him too far back)
13. Regal Ransom (not sure he can rate and relax)
14. Mr. Hot Stuff (will to win)
15. Summer Bird (believe he's brilliant, but in experienced and needs pace)

In need of wings
16. Atomic Rain (may be an AQU lover)
17. Nowhere to Hide (Just a Coincidence would have been a better entrant)
18. Join in the Dance (refer to #6)
19. Advice (synth runner)
20. Mine that Bird (a G3 horse)

Current Derby Top 10

2009-04-29T10:32:00.000-07:00

Here are my top 10:

1. Friesan Fire
2. I Want Revenge
3. Desert Party
4. Dunkirk
5. Poineerof the Nile
6. General Quarters
7. Chocolate Candy
8. Flying Private
9. West Side Bernie
10. Regal Ransom

I think the difference will be pace in this race. There are two pace-setters, but both are trying to win it, not be rabbits. This sets up for stalkers, and the stalkers in this race are VERY good (Friesan Fire, I Want Revenge, Desert Party, General Quarters) and will get the jump on (perhaps just as good but half as lucky pace-wise) closers (Dunkirk, Pioneerof the Nile, Win Willy, West Side Bernie, Chocolate Candy). The wild cards are pace-setter Regal Ransom and peaking Lukas-colt Flying Private. The former can put away Join in the Dance and finish in the money, while the latter may run well with a savvy Albarado in the silks, and a pace scenario that sets up for his stalking style. But, I see neither outpacing Friesan Fire or I Want Revenge home. I last-second threw out Win Willy because I don't like a novice jockey on a closer in the Derby.

looking back - initial Derby picks

2009-04-08T14:48:00.000-07:00

It seems that my Original Kentucky Quatorze, from back in early winter (late November), has actually been holding form.
1. Flying Pegasus
2. Break Water Edison
3. Charitable Man
4. Skipadate
5. Old Fashioned
6. Regal Ransom
7. Indygo Mountain
8. Royal Vindication
9. Hello Broadway
10. Trinity Magic
11. Midshipman
12. Capt Candyman Can
13. Vineyard Haven
14. Well Positioned

And then, again, on January 6, as the year turned, here were my projections:

1. Charitable Man
2. Break Water Edison
3. Quality Road
4. Old Fashioned
5. I Want Revenge
6. Indygo Mountain
7. Flying Pegasus
8. Hello Broadway
9. Trinity Magic
10. Shafted
11. Silver City
12. Chocolate Candy
13. Square Eddie
14. Vineyard Haven

I stand by Break Water Edison, Vineyard Haven, and Well Positioned near the top. Something is amiss with them; hence him being out of action. I Want Revenge, Old Fashioned, Regal Ransom, Hello Broadway, Charitable Man, Quality Road and Flying Pegasus will all (or have already) proven their worth.

On a side note, I do think Charitable Man and Theregoesjojo (if they like the surface) are going to give the rest all they can handle in the Blue Grass. Charitable Man is still the most talented of this generation, until proven otherwise. Also, General Quarters is your best long-shot bet in that race. Time to enjoy racing!

My Current Ky Derby Quatorze (with Adolphson Speed Projection Rating)

1. I Want Revenge 111
2. Quality Road 110
3. Theregoesjojo 109
4. Charitable Man 107
5. Dunkirk 107
6. Freisan Fire 106
7. Flying Pegasus 105
8. Win Willy 104
9. Chocolate Candy 104
10. Old Fashioned 102
11. General Quarters 102
12. Pioneerof the Nile 101
13. Regal Ransom 101
14. Hold Me Back 99

WORLD CUP/ FLA DERBY weekend A.S.P.

2009-03-27T10:09:00.000-07:00

ADOLPHSON SPEED PROJECTIONS

Godolphin Mile
13. Gayego 107
4. Two Step Salsa 105
11. Informed 100
15. Dijeerr 99
3. Summer Doldrums 99
12. Lucky Find 98
8. Tiz Now Tiz Then 98
2. Don Renato 97
6. Kalahari Gold 96
1. Cat Junior 95
10. Art of War 94
5. Green Coast 93
9. BraveTin Soldier 92
7. Al Morhij 91
14. Golden Arrow 90

Gayego ran his best beyer at nine furlongs last year, and is increasing distance after an easy win over Diabolical at six panels. Two Step Salsa is another true miler, and I think this will be a Godolphin showdown, with Gayego gunning after the latter. The peaking, Informed, will fly late with Lucky Find, Tiz Now, Don Renato, and Summer Doldrums (remember him?). Summer Doldrums is bred to adore the sandy course at Nad Al Sheba. If it turns up wet, he gets even more of a chance, but in the end, Gayego and Two Step Salsa are lengths better than these. Dijeerr has finally found the dirt, and improved immensely (duh!), and his pace is probably the reason I am picking Gayego over Two Step Salsa.

UAE Derby
1. Regal Ransom 97
5. Desert Party 96
11. Soy Libriano 95
10. Jose Adan 91
6. Redding Colliery 90
7. So Shiny 89
3. Lelah Dorak 88
12. Naval Officer 87
2. I Am The Best 86
13. Paso de Gloria 85
9. Balcarce Nov 85
8. Ra Junior 81
4. Muy Ponderado 80

I have loved Regal Ransom since his first race. He is starting to grow, and will actually get a pace to run at this time. His quick turn of foot can get the jump on Desert Party, who may be stuck in traffic. If he has turned the corner, then he is just as good, or better, than Desert Party. His debut showed me that he was special, and he could very well destroy this field. Everyone has forgotten about Soy Libriano, who could move up after winning the Al Bastakiya, at this course and distance. Jose Adan ran really well, as well, and has that Cryptoclearance blood of running from off the map to win big races. Watch out. Redding Colliery is a classy colt who can win if it falls apart, and will be right there the entire time.

Dubai Golden Shaheen
3. Diabolical 107
12. Indian Blessing 106
2. Big City Man 105
7. Marchand d'Or 103
6. Black Seventeen 102
4. Lucky Quality 100
9. Machismo 100
1. Force Freeze 98
8. Balthazaar's Gift 97
10. Hammadi 95
11. Bamboo Ere 92
5. Change Alley 91

Weak race. The "X" factor is whether Marchand d'Or likes the dirt. He loves heavy and soft courses, so he probably will like the dirt, despite a turf pedigree. I think Indian Blessing is the fastest, but if she goes head-to-head with a primed Diabolical, she will lose in a dogfight. Black Seventeen would be 8 points higher (4 lengths or so) if he did not have all the setbacks this week. If he's healthy (a miracle), he is my #1, but I have to believe that he is lacking right now.

Dubai Duty Free
10. Archipenko 111
12. Lady Marian 110
15. Jay Peg 109
13. Paco Boy 108
8. Balius 107
3. Vodka 106
5. Hyperbaric 106
6. Creachadoir 105
7. Kip Deville 105
2. Gladiatorus 105
16. Presvis 105
4. Niconero 104
14. Charlie Fanrsbarns 104
1. Bankable 103
9. Alexandros 101
11. Tuesday Joy 98

Tough, tough race. Archipenko and Jay Peg will be the two to beat, but Lady Marian is classy enough to win this. Paco Boy, if the race was a mile, is the winner. Kip Deville is not as good at nine furlongs (especially in this field), and Hyperbaric is tough, but in the deep end. Vodka and Balius are super classy, and will have something to say. I expect a blanket finish, with one of the top three winning.

Dubai Sheema Classic
6. Youmzain 109
13. Doctor Dino 108
15. Macarthur 107
10. Quijano 107
7. Purple Moon 106
12. Red Rocks 106
4. Spanish Moon 105
8. Marsh Side 104
14. Kirklees 104
1. Front House 104
2. Eastern Anthem 103
5. King of Rome 101
11. Kings Gambit 99
3. Russian Sage 96
9. Deem 92

Youmzain is the best horse in the race, but always is softer in the beginning of the season. Perhaps he has grown up enough to win this, but you never know. Still, he is the fastest, and must be respected. Long shot, Macarthur, is going to go off at HUGE odds, but is your sneaky bet of the day. He's classy, but has yet to find his stride. If he's in here, it means perhaps he has, and de Kock is smiling. Purple Moon and Red Rocks, if they run their races, are right there, but both are volatile. Marsh Side, like Hyperbaric, looks great but is in over his head.

Dubai World Cup
8. Casino Drive 110
4. Asiatic Boy 108
10. Albertus Maximus 107
12. Anak Nakal 106
2. Arson Squad 106
7. Well Armed 106
14. My Indy 105
5. Happy Boy 104
9. Joe Louis 103
6. Gloria de Campeao 102
11. Muller 101
3. Snaafy 101
1. Muhannak 96
13. Paris Perfect 94

What a sub par version of the world's richest race. What happens when subpar G1 races happen? A Japanese horse wins them. Ten furlongs is the optimum distance for Casino Drive, and Asiatic Boy is the horse to beat. Albertus Maximus, Arson Squad, and Well Armed will be super tough, but I think Anak Nakal will come flying out of the clouds for a piece of it. I will, honestly, be cheering for Anak Nakal, as I would like to see Nick Zito win the world's richest race (despite him being in Florida). My Indy is in over his head, but if it falls apart, is primed to win it.

Swale
5. Brave Victory 99
1. This Ones for Phil 98
6. Big Drama 96
2. B Z Warrior 94
4. Custom for Carlos 93
3. Sabi Sabi 83

Brave Victory was one of my favorite juveniles, and has been given the time to grow into his giant stride. Two works back he smoked 55 other workers, and looks to be primed to run down the pacesetters, if the pace is honest. Custom for Carlos looks good, but may bounce off his last, while Big Drama will not be cranked the entire way. This Ones for Phil is the fastest, but could still be feeling the effects of the insane 116 Beyer two starts back. B Z Warrior is the best longshot bet, as he has the Pletcher factor; a trainer who is always great at placing a horse's first stakes race.

Florida Derby
6. Theregoesjojo 109
2. Quality Road 107
4. Dunkirk 106
7. Danger to Society 99
1. Toby the Coal Man 96
5. Sincero 91
9. Stately Character 83
3. Casey's On Call 80
8. Europe 75

Putting the numbers together for this one surprised me. I expect Quality Road to regress slightly, but still run 'big.' Dunkirk will move up about four lengths from his last race (especially since Pletcher is under the Coolmore gun to make it into the Derby), and Danger to Society should run MUCH better than last time. The surprise is that Theregoesjojo's pattern states that, if he gets the distance,he will outrun the top two to the wire by two lengths. The funny thing about this race is that the royally bred rabbit, Europe, works more in Theregoesjojo's favor than Dunkirk, and actually helps give Quality Road something at which to run. Danger to Society will have something to say about the pace, but I feel he will be outrun late. The only thing I dislike here is that I feel Desormeaux's riding style does not match Theregoesjojo. I would much rather see Prado, Albarado, or Leparoux on him. Despite that, his speed projections scream "peak performance approaching."

Appleton
1. Passager 100
3. Kiss the Kid 99
5. Bold Start 96
2. Vanquisher 94
6. Avanti Avanti 92
4. Granizo 80

Kiss the Kid looks to be the classiest, but I believe Passager will hit his best stride to catch him at the line. Bold Start is classy and tough, and I expect McPeek to have him ready to run a huge race.

A GREAT WEEKEND OF RACING!!!

Adolphson Speed Projections - Turfway 3/21

2009-03-21T10:17:00.000-07:00

Rushaway Stakes
2. Ziegfield 85
5. No Inflation 84
3. Fitzaslew 83
4. Cliffy's Future 81
1. Ninth Client 75
6. Summer's Empire 73
8. Toccet Rocket 70
7. Sundays Baby Grand 69

Lane's End
3. A.P. Cardinal 96
2. Bittel Road 95
4. West Side Bernie 93
6. Parade Clown 90
1. Hold Me Back 87
5. Jack Spratt 86
8. Orthodox 85
10. Flying Private 83
7. Bruce N Autumn 83
9. Loch Dubh 81
12. Proceed Bee 80
11. Dynamite Bob 55

kentucky quatorze 3/17/09

2009-03-17T15:12:00.000-07:00

1. Quality Road
I picked him in the FOY, and now he moves right back up to the top. Bet him in the Florida Derby- I have a feeling that he will be the Derby favorite afterward.
2. Charitable Man
After six works, the usually conservative McLaughlin is thinking Blue Grass. This colt was screaming for two turns as a juvenile, so the jump will be no problem. Watch out for him, he was my original #1.
3. Theregoesjojo
Most exciting kick of any horse.
4. I Want Revenge
So impressive that he may scare everyone away from the Wood. He’s fast, explosive, and has that wonderful low-head action of his sire and grandsire.
5. The Pamplemousse
Looked impressive, and simply needs to do the same on dirt.
6. Hello Broadway
He ran up charging on the outside only to spin his wheels. I hold out hope that he’s as brilliant as he seems. He will be incredibly tough in the Wood/Ark Derby.
7. Flying Pegasus
Talented and improving. Throw out his dirt excursion- his sire hated the wet. He was bound to bounce a bit after a brilliant comeback. Watch out next time. Will probably wind up in the Wood, or wait a week for the Arkansas Derby. I doubt they’ll try him on synthetic this late in the game.
8. Friesan Fire
Keeps improving. My only worry is over-racing. He is definitely a slop-lover, but his race made me think that he is possibly peaking too early.
9. Old Fashioned
Once again looked less like the brilliant closing quarter of the Remsen (after a :50 half, mind you). Despite this, we should see him at near peak in the next- then we’ll know what we’re dealing with.
10. General Quarters
Love that he lost- now he’s a wonderfully overlooked horse. His race 2 back was impressive enough to keep this position.
11. Take the Points
Loved his race in the Sham. Earned my respect. Would like to see him taken to the Illinois Derby and win easily, or earn his keep in the Wood.
12. Dunkirk
A bit of a loper, but full of natural talent. Still, he has to show a quick turn of foot and a devastating win vs. extremely talented colts in the Florida Derby.
13. Imperial Council
Needless to say, he is the epitome of dangerous in the Wood.
14. Break Water Edison
We have yet to hear what went wrong. I still think the world of him, and I refuse to accept his last two. I think he hated the raceday track. I think he hated the blinkers, and I think he got crap rides in both races. Take him back up to the Wood Memorial and let him run on a surface he loves.

Speed Projections 3/14/09

2009-03-14T08:42:00.000-07:00

FG Oaks
3. Rachel Alexandra 99
5. Flying Spur 98
2. Four Gifts 94
4. African Skies 87
6. War Tigress 85
1. Our Dahlia 73

N.O. Handicap
6. Wishful Tomcat 103
10. Honest Man 103
14. My Pal Charlie 103
12. Richard's Kid 101
1. It's a Bird 101
8. Good and Lucky 100
4. Dry Martini 100
2. Golden Yank 99
11. Macho Again 99
9. Slew's Tiznow 98
5. Brothers Nicholas 97
7. El Caballo 95
3. Secret Getaway 94
13. Star Guitar 94

Muniz Hcp
10. Nownownow 101
13. Proudinsky 100
6. Soldier's Dancer 99
4. Golden Yank 98
12. Transduction Gold 97
1a. French Beret 96
8. Corrupt 96
9. El Caballo 95
5. Wesley 95
2. Brass Hat 94
1. Windward Islandsf 94
11. Demarcation 94
3. My Happiness 92
7. Sir Whimsey 87

La. Derby
8. Papa Clem 98
5. Flying Pegasus 97
9. Friesan Fire 96
3. Patena 96
10. Nowhere to Hide 95
4. Terrain 94
6. Giant Oak 93
1. Free Country 92
7. Uno Mas 92
2. Soul Warrior 88

San Felipe
2. Pioneerof the Nile 93
4. Shafted 91
6. Kelly Leak 90
7. New Bay 89
3. Feisty Suances 86
5. Jeranimo 84
1. He's Really Big 83

Tampa Bay Derby
4. Hello Broadway 100
6. Sumo 98
8. General Quarters 98
2. Musket Man 97
9. Bear's Rocket 95
5. Warrior's Reward 94
3. Nowhere to Hide 93
7. Join in the Dance 89
11. Top Seed 85
10. Justdontcallmejeri 80
1. Perfect Bull 73

Rebel
8. Silver City 98
1. Old Fashioned 97
3. Poltergeist 96
5. Wise Kid 87
2. Hamazing Destiny 86
9. Win Willy 82
6. His Greatness 81
7. Captain Cherokee 80
4. Pointing Home 78

3/7/09 Stakes Speed Projections

2009-03-04T23:48:00.000-08:00

SA Handicap
11. Court Vision 104
1. Matto Mondo 103
12. Zambezi Sun 102
8. Einstein 102
13. Champs Elysees 101
4. Monba 101
7. Blue Exit 100
5. Colonel John 100
14. Stream Cat 100
2. Cowboy Cal 99
6. Magnum 99
9. Dansant 96
3. Heroi Do Bafra 89
10. Cause 88

SA Oaks
3. Miss Silver Brook 92
1. Stardom Bound 91
2. Burg Berg 90
8. Beltene 87
4. Hooh Why 86
10. Acronym 86
6. Nan 83
7. Will O Way 83
9. Third Dawn 82
5. Stormy Slew 80

Kilroe Mile
11. Gio Ponti 102
1. Ventura 101
9. Global Hunter 101
6. Artiste Royal 100
2. Mast Track 100
7. Dixie Chatter 99
10. Becrux 96
3. Monterey Jazz 96
4. Hewitts 94
5. Wise River 94
8. Mr. Napper Tandy 93
12. Victory Pete 93

Toboggan
9. Ah Day 108
1. Driven by Success 107
5. Lucky Island 106
2. Eternal Star 104
6. West Coast Flier 100
8. Grand Champion 100
4. Joey P. 99
3. Place Your Bet 95
7. Saint Daimon 95

Gotham
8. I Want Revenge 96
5. Mr. Fantasy 95
3. Masala 94
7. Imperial Council 92
6. Haynesfield 91
2. Russell Road 90
1. Naos 89
4. Axel Foley 87
9. Giant Ryan 68

This Week's Kentucky Quatorze

2009-03-02T12:05:00.000-08:00

My Derby 14

1. Hello Broadway
Next race will be a breakout.
2. Flying Pegasus
Talented and improving.
3. Quality Road
I picked him in the FOY, and now he moves right back up to the top.
4. Charitable Man
Guess who is back on the work tab? My original #1. He has enough bottom on him to run twice and make the Derby.
5. Theregoesjojo
Short horse last out is dangerous in the Florida Derby.
6. The Pamplemousse
Looked impressive, and simply needs to do the same on dirt.
7. Old Fashioned
His Southwest was underwhelming, but I think he's all class and deserves this exact spot.
8. Friesan Fire
Keeps improving. My only worry is over-racing.
9. I Want Revenge
Moves to AQU this week. I would like to see a break out performance versus the likes of Imperial Council.
10. General Quarters
Overlooked, improving, and beautifully bred.
11. Take the Points
Loved his race in the Sham. Earned my respect.
12. Dunkirk
A bit of a loper who doesn't have the flash of the top few here- but has a huge amount of natural ability.
13. Imperial Council
Could be anything. I loved his last two, and I think he'll make I Want Revenge and Haynesfield work for every stride in the Gotham.
14. Pioneerof the Nile
Baffert remains his best asset.

Speed Ratings for FOY & Sham

2009-02-26T18:01:00.000-08:00

Fountain of Youth
11. Quality Road 105
9. Capt. Candyman Can 103
8. Break Water Edison 101
2. Theregoesjojo 100
12. This Ones for Phil 99
4. Take the Points SCR (99)
3. Notonthesamepage 98
10. Taqarub 96
6. Rocketing Returns 95
7. Beethoven 95
1. Bee Cee Cee 93
5. Jack Spratt 84

Sham
7. Mr. Hot Stuff 100
5. The Pamplemousse 99
12. Take the Points 96
10. Mark S the Cooler 89
9. Ventana 88
2. Smart Bid 87
1. Hi Flyin Indy 84
8. Bourbon Bay 85
4. Lifeline 83
11. Unbridled Roman 82
3. Tiz True 80
6. Balfour Park 70

southwestern oracle

2009-02-15T13:50:00.000-08:00

In the Southwest, it should be a gray trifecta. I think the race may wind up being the race of the season, so far. I suspect that if a pace battle develops between Old Fashioned and Silver City, I actually think Silver City will come out on top. But, I do not think he will win if he is "in battle." I think the best money is placed on Poltergeist, who will probably go off around 5 or 8-1.

Flat Out completes the exotics. If Poltergeist does not run his race, I am all over Silver City. Not only because I am anti-bandwagon (Old Fashioned), but I am convinced this horse will wind up being a miler or 9-10 furlong horse, he just has more speed than he knows what to do with. The biggest thing going against him is that Dominguez is perhaps the savviest pace rider in America, behind Prado and Pino. Those three are amazing at getting horses to either set or sit right off the pace if they're on a speedy animal. If Old Fashioned wins with all this happening, then he gets my respect.

1. Silver City
2. Old Fashioned
3. Poltergiest
4. Flat Out

Other big predictions coming up? Well, even though I am often wrong, here is me being an oracle:

-Quality Road will win the Fountain of Youth, granted he is in it.
-Sumo will win the Tampa Bay Derby.
-Hello Broadway will win the Wood Memorial.
-Flying Pegasus will turn the tables on Freisan Fire in the Louisiana Derby.
-I Want Revenge will turn the tables on rival Pioneerof the Nile in their next meeting.

2009-02-09T09:40:00.000-08:00

An Updated Kentucky Quatorze

1. Theregoesjojo
Still the most promising I have seen.
2. Old Fashioned
May be head and shoulders better than these, but I have to see it.
3. Flying Pegasus
Justified my faith at FG. He is dangerous and talented.
5. Hello Broadway
Along with Flying Pegasus, he's looking like the next race will be a breakout.
6. Silver City
I do not buy that he is a sprinter. Runs with a lot of class.
4. Friesan Fire
Looked good Saturday. Let's see him run away from an improving Flying Pegasus.
7. I Want Revenge
Was too close to the lead at SA. I think the blinkers worked against him.
8. Break Water Edison
Do not count him out. He is built to be a Triple Crown horse, and is very fast.
9. Pioneerof the Nile
Finally gained some of my respect this weekend, and half of that is Baffert.
10. Quality Road
Looked good in a work this week, and I think he is already being overlooked.
11. Poltergeist
I expect him to
12. Musket Man
Talented, tough runner who is undefeated and has run a 90+ beyer while looking to stretch out.
13. Capt Candyman Can
If the Derby was a mile, he would be in the top two. His last was stellar.
14. Indygo Mountain
I will not quite give up on him yet. He is still talented and deserves respect.

The first Super Weekend of '09

2009-02-07T08:37:00.001-08:00

My favorite picks this weekend are definitely Magnum in the San Antonio on Sunday, and Flying Spur in the Silverbulletday on Saturday. Both look to be much better than they are getting credit, and Magnum especially will be a huge price. I loved his San Pasqual run, and he used to be able to run 112 Beyers, which would be better than anyone else in the race. Flying Spur ran a huge number last out, and has the pedigree (Giant's Causeway - Lakeway) to be a huge filly. I project she will be one of the top three fillies by the end of the year.

This Weekend's Graded Stakes Picks

Aqueduct - 8th - Whirlaway Stakes
1. Peace Town
2. Haynesfield
3. Zooger
4. Hehasnosay

Fair Grounds - 6th - Mineshaft Hcp
1. My Pal Charlie
2. Grasshopper
3. Good and Lucky
4. Honest Man

FG - 7th - Fair Grounds Hcp
1. Jimmy Simms
2. French Beret
3. Corrupt
4. Windward Islands

FG - 8th - Silverbulletday Stakes
1. Flying Spur
2. Just Jenda
3. War Echo
4. Four Gifts

FG - 9th - Risen Star Stakes
1. Indygo Mountain
2. Flying Pegasus
3. Friesan Fire
4. Dumar

Santa Anita - 6th - Las Virgenes Stakes
1. Haka
2. Toro Bonito
3. Century Park
4. Stardom Bound

SA - 7th - Thunder Road Hcp
1. Matto Mondo
2. Monterey Jazz
3. Yankee Bravo
4. Monba

SA - 8th - Robert B. Lewis Stakes
1. I Want Revenge
2. Brother Keith
3. Pioneerof the Nile
4. Bittel Road

SA - 9th - Strub Stakes
1. Wishful Tomcat
2. Gio Ponti
3. Medjool
4. Cowboy Cal

Sunday

Santa Anita - 8th - San Antonio Hcp
1. Magnum
2. Informed
3. Marchfield
4. Tiago

2009-02-06T14:48:00.000-08:00

An Updated Kentucky Quatorze

1. Theregoesjojo
2. Old Fashioned
3. I Want Revenge
4. Break Water Edison
5. Quality Road
6. Poltergeist
7. Flying Pegasus
8. Indygo Mountain
9. Silver City
10. Hello Broadway
11. Musket Man
12. Shafted
13. Friesan Fire
14. Pioneerof the Nile

Thoughts from last weekend:

Nicanor looked good and strong until something obviously went awry with him. I was worried that he would have the action of an ordinary horse, but the way he ran was exceptional until the incident. Watch out next time.

Gulfstream was a sandbox of a deep surface, with nothing moving from the back of the pack. This should especially make (my pick in the Donn) Great Hunter's run look that much better. He and Capt Candyman Can were two of the few horses I saw making up any ground on that course.

In the Hutcheson (which I am so glad that it is back in its traditional late January position), Capt Candyman Can proved once again that he's a very, very classy miler. I will be very surprised if he stretcheds beyond 8.5 furlongs, but I am often wrong. Candy Ride, his sire (of whom you know that I am a big fan), looked the same way and could run up to 10 furlongs. He has his sire's fast, efficient action, but his female family is laden with sprinters and milers.

The real story of this race was Hello Broadway. He becomes a huge shot after running on the lead, and obviously being a closer. What I liked was his grit in defeat. He was out of place and still ran credibly. I doubt Broken Vow's sire stamina influence, but I'll give this colt a lot of credit. Something was obviously amiss with my (previously #1 Derby pick) Break Water Edison. Nothing has surfaced in the press, but I am sure something was wrong. Even before, when running poorly, there was a huge excuse for him. I'll keep him in my top tier.

C.S. Silk, who ran one of the most impressive juvenile filly races last year, looked once again like a horse who disliked the track in the Forward Gal. Perhaps it was that she was stuck back in an unfavorable position, but I am prone to think that she likes it on the lead on a synthetic course. Frolic's Dream proved once again that under 7 furlongs is her turf in the division. That is, until she rematches with my projected best filly sprinter of 2009, Elusive Heat, who ran off the screen on January 29th.

In the Holy Bull, Beethoven ran credibly, but I worry still about his endurance capacity. The race was one of the more boring Derby preps I have ever seen, but there were a few horses who are definitely dangerous next out. Most notably, West Side Bernie, who kept coming, despite the distance being too far too soon.

The Donn Handicap was nearly as boring as the Holy Bull, with a miler wearing down a sub-par pacemaker. As mentioned, Great Hunter ran a credible race, and Einstein proved again that he is not a fan of Gulfstream. He needs more to grab ahold of, and that course was obviously very loose and slow.

Kip Deville proved once again that American turf horses are sub-par, when winning at what is not his optimal distance. He looks about 2 lengths slower at 9 furlongs, and his number reflected it. Court Vision, who has always been a bit overrated, ran well, but was poorly ridden. He should have been dropped to the tail of the field and given a wide run. The big disappointment was that Red Rocks, who has the best kick in the field, did not show up. He ran like a bothered horse, but will be tough next out if all is well.

On the west coast, the beautiful Jibboom ran a better race than she got credit for when being passed by her outstanding stablemate, Ventura, but digging in to chase her hole and lose by a length. They drew off from the field and really put on a nice show of talent.

Top 25 Stallion Values

2009-01-27T18:31:00.000-08:00

Top Stallion Values
Stallion
Location / Fee / Farm / Sire and Damsire

1. Candy Ride
KY $12,500 Hill 'n' Dale Ride the Rails/Candy Stripes
2. Benchmark
CA $4,000 River's Edge Farm Alydar/Danzig
3. Hat Trick
KY $12,500 Walmac Sunday Silence/Lost Code
4. Hurrican Run
IRE $25,963 Coolmore Montjeu/Serumu
5. Dehere
KY $20,000 Coolmore Deputy Minister/Secretariat
6. Louis Quatorze
MD $6,000 Murmur Farm Sovereign Dancer/On To Glory
7. Doneraile Court
KY $7,500 Stonewall Seattle Slew/Stop the Music
8. Skimming
CAN $3,253 Pacific Stud Nureyev/Lyphard
9. Discreet Cat
KY $25,000 Darley Forestry/Private Account
10. Cougar Cat
KY $5,000 Richland Hills Storm Cat/General Meeting
11. Easing Along
KY $10,000 Claiborne Storm Cat/Alydar
12. War Front
KY $12,500 Claiborne Danzig/Rubiano
13. Repent
KY $7,500 Vinery Louis Quatorze/Cipayo
14. Ivan Denisovich
IRE $5,193 Coolmore Danehill/Kris S.
15. Eavesdropper
PA $5,000 Walmac PA Kingmambo/Secretariat
16. Mingun
KY $5,000 Lane's End A.P. Indy/Nureyev
17. Lion Hearted
MD $5,000 Northview S.S. Storm Cat/Alydar
18. Stephen Got Even
KY $7,500 Lane's End A.P. Indy/Cox's Ridge
19. Seeking the Dia
KY $10,000 Hill 'n' Dale Storm Cat/Seeking the Gold
20. Political Force
KY $12,500 Claiborne Unbridled's Song/Glitterman
21. Astronomer Royal
FR $10,385 Reboursiere/Montaigu Danzig/Easy Goer
22. Jeremy
IRE $10,385 Irish National Stud Danehill Dancer/Arazi
23. Good Reward
KY $10,000 Three Chimneys Storm Cat/Seeking the Gold
24. Invasor
KY $28,000 Shadwell Candy Stripes/Interprete*ARG
25. Macho Uno
KY $25,000 Adena Springs Holy Bull/Blushing Groom

Kentucky Quatorze : Kentucky Derby Top 14, as of 1/26/09

2009-01-25T23:13:00.001-08:00

1. Break Water Edison
2. Theregoesjojo
3. Old Fashioned
4. I Want Revenge
5. Musket Man
6. Quality Road
7. Poltergeist
8. Flying Pegasus
9. Indygo Mountain
10. Silver City
11. Hello Broadway
12. Dunkirk
13. Shafted
14. Friesan Fire

Knocking on the Door
Chocolate Candy
Trinity Magic
Square Eddie
Patena
Tranquil Manner
Pioneerof the Nile
Notonthesamepage
Cliffy's Future
The Pamplemousse
Keep Thinking

Break Water Edison inherits the top spot this week, as his half brother Charitable Man has disappeared from the work-tab since October due to injury. The Pamplemousse normally would not get a nod from me (given how everything went his way at Santa Anita), but I respect anything that hits the track from the Julio Canani barn. He is one of the top five trainers in the United States and must be respected.

Chocolate Candy ran exactly like everyone expected in northern California. He is a talented colt who needs to run faster than he has. His pedigree screams natural dirt, so it is nice to see that he can perform well on the rubber carpet. Patena being purchased by IEAH is a smart move on their behalf. This colt is extremely well-bred, and has a great deal of room for improvement.

The horse who needs to be respected right now is Silver City. This colt ran away with the Dixieland Stakes, making it look like a $30,000 public workout. This colt is no doubt a serious racehorse with a fantastic cruising rate, as well as closing kick. His connections and his critics doubt his stamina, but my gut says he not only will get two turns, but could possibly get 10 furlongs. He is raw talent, and we have only seen a few as impressive as he has been. On the note of his pedigree, he is by Unbridled's Song, the sire of Old Fashioned, out of a Mt. Livermore mare. Mt. Livermore was a sprinter whose progeny were best as milers (Eliza) and sprinters (Housebuster), but Silver City's granddam is bred very similarly to Storm Cat. In this, we see a Storm Bird mare out of a Secretariat-sired full-sister to brilliant turf router Academy Award. Throw in classy Mr. Prospector Blood farther back, and this pedigree is stacked in every direction. This horse is Derby material until I am proven wrong. I would love to see him thrown into the Fountain of Youth at a mile (a nice step up from 5.5 furlongs) and then a two-turn race.

A maiden to be watched intently is Keep Thinking. This colt has raced (very greenly) twice, and has always come running at the end. He has finished second and fourth in his two races (at Belmont and Hollywood). If he puts two and two together, he will be one of the best of his generation. He is by A.P. Indy out of the beautiful Denebola (Storm Cat-Coup de Genie), and was purchased for a session-topping $2.4 Million. Speaking of big sale toppers...

The big movers are $3.7 Million purchase Dunkirk, Theregoesjojo, Musket Man, Poltergeist, and Cliffy's Future. Dunkirk proved to be a colt worth every penny when easily winning his 7 furlong debut at Gulfstream, this week. He is a strapping son of Unbridled's Song out of the galloping Kentucky Oaks winner, Secret Status.

Theregoesjojo, despite his questionable name, looks like a very talented horse with a very strong finish. He also seems to have much more available than his races have shown us, and I look forward to his tangle with my #5, Musket Man. The latter is undefeated and runs in a very push-button fashion. His sire, Yonaguska, was very much the same way, but this colt looks to be able to outrun his pedigree. The 7 furlongs of the Pasco Stakes win (1/17/09) looked well within his range, as he galloped past the leaders and easily turned back a challenge from the outside.

Poltergeist looked like he finally had a chance to stretch his legs in his first attempt at two turns. He pulled out a huge win and a 95 Beyer, tied for the best two-turn speed figure this year by a sophomore. He is a gorgeous gray colt who looks like a cross between his red-hot sire, Tapit, and his damsire, Relaunch. His running style is much more like the former, but the way he lowers his head and stretches his stride is much more like the Relaunch side of his family. Watch out for this colt trained by Donnie Von Hemel. He has never been off the board in 5 starts and is on the improve. Also, I love his name. (There, I said it.)

Cliffy's Future ran a very unlucky second in an allowance at Aqueduct to a very classy and speedy colt, Pitched Perfectly, who had previously finished fourth to Haynesfield in an uncharacteristically dull performance. Pitched Perfectly is talented, but must show he is more than a speed horse to be genuinely considered. Cliffy's Future, on the other hand, darted from the tail end of the field, went through an opening at the rail and nearly ran down a tough counterpart. He seems to be putting it all together and, as expected with offspring of The Cliff's Edge, is excelling around two turns. Watch out for him in the Gotham.

There Goes Jojo / Indygo Still a Go

2009-01-11T23:12:00.000-08:00

A quick reaction to the big races this past weekend:

Indygo Mountain had to have everything his way in order to show how good he was in the LeCompte Stakes, but instead he slammed the gait, was left behind, and was defeated by another son of A.P. Indy. That colt, Friesan Fire, ran a superb race, thanks to a handy ride by Gabriel Saez. The runner up, Patena, ran a really great race, as well. He is one to watch, as he was gaining late on the winner, and is by Seeking the Gold out of an A.P. Indy mare whose dam was a full sister to Touch Gold. This all screams late-running grinder, as well as a huge amount of stamina. I really liked Indygo Mountain's mid-race move, where he was stuck in last and decided to go between horses and move toward the leaders before the final turn. He was a short horse for the race (not quite as fit as his connections wanted), so such a move after a traumatic start was destined to fail. Yet, the move, itself, makes me really like the colt. I will keep him in my top contenders until he throws a bad race. Friesan Fire moves up, especially after showing push-button ability with the new blinkers. Obviously, in his game first-time dirt performance, so too does Canadian stakes winner Patena.

At Gulfstream, one of the highest regarded sophomores in the land, Quality Road, failed in his first attempt in open company. This was a bit of a surprise, but the horse who beat him ran a huge race, and must be talked about. His name is Theregoesjojo, and he ran a really professional seven panel race. He sat mid-pack, approached the leaders (two highly regarded horses: the aforementioned along with Obligingly, a Pletcher/WinStar colt). Af the eighth pole, these three talented colts lined up, and it was a sprint to the wire. Quality Road and Obligingly were both visually being asked by their jockeys, but Kent Desormeaux merely shook the reigns of Theregoesjojo, and he went by them with ease and trotted under the wire 2 lengths ahead. This horse catapults to the top, as he is well-bred, comes from an able barn, and ran like a talented horse. His winning Beyer speed figure, along with the way in which he earned it, make me think that he can reproduce this performance around two turns.

I get excited once in a while, but I will point out pretty quickly, that this colt is special. I have seen all three of his races, and the only time he lost is when he had a hole shut off at the 1/8 pole in the Bashford Manor. His maiden win before that, where he ran down a fast horse (Mine All Mine) in a five furlong race, as well as his push-button win in the allowance this weekend, show me that he is something worth watching. More interestingly, is the fact that he finishes his races with a very high, easy, and quick action. This to me means that he's simply running down what is in front of him, and is not even close to reaching his potential. His action reminds me of Street Sense.

His sire, Brahms, was meant to be a dirt horse, but only got the chance once and ran a huge race (and speed figure) when placing in the Stephen Foster. He, himself, is out of a champion mare (Queena), who won big races on both turf and dirt. Theregoesjojo's dam, Slewie Blues, and bred for two-turn speed. By Seattle Slew, who needs no introduction, and out of a Cure the Blues mare, one can expect her to produce very fast animals. If you look farther back in his pedigree, you'll see that his great grand-dam is be Le Fabuleux out of the Phipps Stable black-type mare, Her Prerogative (a daughter of Buckpasser and Queen of the Stage, a champion juvenile filly). One interesting thing to note is the cross of Blushing Groom (through Queena's dam Too Chic), Northern Dancer (through Danzig, Brahms' sire), and Le Fabuleux. There are not many horses with that combination, and the last one I can think of is Arazi, whom I consider to be the greatest horse never to show us his full potential. He, too, had an explosive finish. Exciting!

In other news, Bob Baffert proved he is a thumbs-up waving weapon, no matter his odds at Santa Anita with Century Park in the Santa Ysabel. Also, Todd Pletcher's Cowboy Cal ran the race we thought he could on a synthetic course, in the San Pasqual. The more intriguing story, to me, is the bang-up closing race that the runner up to Cowboy Cal, Informed (owned by the Bob & Beverly Lewis Trust), as well as classy comebacker Magnum running a huge race to be third. I expect another good race from both, but I especially warn bettors to really consider Magnum in any upcoming race, especially from 9-10 furlongs. He, when healthy, can run up to 109-112 on the Beyer scale, and that is faster than any horse currently stabled in California has shown.

It's a Free Country

2009-01-09T18:08:00.000-08:00

A few horses really caught my attention this week, and are worth the in-depth look.

Kenny McPeek sent out two colts this weekend that ran well to win nine-furlong allowances and both remain undefeated. The first, Free Country, ran a gutsy race to win his allowance. He ran his last 1/8 about a length faster than Danger to Society won his race, but the latter was throttled down in the process. Free Country is a son of Big Country, a colt that I once met up-close-and-personal while working barn crew at Rood & Riddle Equine Hospital. He was a giant horse who was built like a class act. This was no surprise, considering his father was A.P. Indy and his mother was Flanders. I had, a few months prior on Thanksgiving Day weekend, seen him fail to break his maiden at Churchill, despite being bet odds-on. Something was amiss while racing, so he was retired after a record of 13-2-1-2. Then, for one reason or another (a mistake), Overbrook Farm sold him at the 2004 Keeneland Sale, where he was purchased for $120,000 and now stands at Bona Terra Farms in Georgetown, Kentucky.

Free Country has the scope and stride of his sire, but he has the dark look of his mother's side. Smyrna, his dam, is by Wild Again out of Baldski mare, Baldski's Holiday. The latter was a four-time Canadian stakes winner, winning 10 of 30 starts and nearly $300,000. She also is a really smart cross of Baldski, Nijinsky II's speediest son, out of a Ribot/Pia Star cross. Ribot is the epitome of staying class, on top of a world-record setting miler in Pia Star (also the grandsire of brilliant stakes winners Matty G and Star of Cozzene, who both excelled at 8-10 furlongs). This female side is perfectly balanced with speed and staying power. It also has very little, if any, tendency toward sprinting. This horse is a real player, if he is brilliant enough. Perhaps my favorite thing about him is the way he made a way to win in both his races. At Churchill he veered through horses with a great deal of steam, and was not afraid to be maneuvered throw traffic in the mud. At Gulfstream (while making a giant jump from six to nine furlongs), he sat behind horses and darted through a hole on the rail. He has the Wild Again "bulldog" mentality, it seems, with a stride-out that reminds me of Seeking the Gold (Flanders' sire, who was no slouch in a fight, himself).

Kenny McPeek's other colt, Danger to Society, appeared a more impressive winner, but the feeling here is that his field was slightly less accomplished. I believe he is equally as talented, though, and runs like a horse with a lot of room for improvement. Danger to Society also has a fantastic pedigree. He was bred by Starlight Stables that later sold his mother, Elrose, for $1,250,000 at Keeneland November, in 2007. Starlight also campaigned his multiple Grade 1-winning sire, Harlan's Holiday, who was originally trained by the talented McPeek. Danger to Society seems to have more natural speed, or is simply more comfortable sitting closer to the pace, than his stablemate. He is also a half to the gritty turf mare, Super Freaky, who won two turf stakes and $400,000 in the process. The gritty most likely part comes from the fact that their dam, Elrose, is a half sister to the toughest horse of my time, Silver Charm, who was nearly impossible to beat eye-to-eye.

A third horse that caught my eye this week was the Fair Grounds filly, Flying Spur. By Giant's Causeway, out of four-time Grade 1-winner Lakeway, this filly looks like a true runner. Bill Mott has definitely been taking his time with this one, and I loved they way she lowered her head and ran away from her field, recording a winning Beyer of 94 for the mile event. That is the same number Stardom Bound recorded in her Breeders' Cup score two months ago. Interesting. Do not be surprised if this Mike G. Rutherford homebred has something to say about the end of year champions of 2009.

Lemons Anyone? - Kentucky Quatorze

2009-01-06T02:24:00.000-08:00

As we get ready for the first two substantial sophomore races, let us review my current Kentucky Quatorze: Michael's Top 14 Derby Horses. I have also taken the liberty of tacking on the remainder of my Top 30, in order.

Rank-Horse-Comment
1. Charitable Man - I hope he gets on the work-tab soon; still the classiest of the '08 juveniles, despite my juggling of the top 10.
2. Break Water Edison - The 2nd half of my Lemon Drop Duo.
3. Quality Road - The most auspicious debut of 2008, while out of a full sister to Ajina.
4. Old Fashioned - Beautiful finish, but after a :50 half.
5. I Want Revenge - The best finish of any juvenile this year, in defeat.
6. Indygo Mountain - Beautiful colt should win the LeCompte, despite the class jump.
7. Flying Pegasus - I am this horse's one-man fan club, especially after this race against #1.
8. Hello Broadway - Tagg will get rid of his greenness.
9. Trinity Magic - Something was amiss with this special colt at DeD; do not forget him.
10. Shafted - Brilliant allowance winner by Mineshaft out of Twist Afleet, with a great kick.
11. Silver City - Easily won a one-turn allowance with class; if he stretches with the same ease, he will catapult to the top.
12. Chocolate Candy - I believe he will improve by leaps on regular dirt.
13. Square Eddie - Still could be better on real dirt, and has a great trainer in his corner.
14. Vineyard Haven - Dubai is his worst enemy.

Worth the Look:
15. Midshipman - Ran well in the BC, but didn't blow me away; Dubai works against him.
16. Haynesfield - Runs like a miler.
17. Fiddler's Afleet - Tough NY-bred colt has been running really well against the best.
18. Unionize - The maiden I think will be known in the next month or two.
19. Tranquil Manner - A.P. Indy son of Composure who is figuring it out.
20. Point Encounter - Gaines-trainee ran a 1:14.87 6.5 furlong debut; unheard of by a Point Given.
21. Pioneer of the Nile - I fail to be impressed by him, despite the hub-bub.
22. Capt Candyman Can - A gritty, well-trained, feisty, fast and classy MILER.
23. Giant Oak - Loafed along to run well in the KYJC; should improve.
24. Beethoven - Perfect trip worked out in his favor; must show that special something to be taken seriously.

Respected, But I Would Be Surprised:
25. Azul Leon - Had a bad trip in the CashCall, but this miler still closed well.
26. Royal Vindication - Runs big numbers in defeat; needs to finish.
27. West Side Bernie - A genuine two-turn horse who can run on real or synthetic.
28. Notonthesamepage - HUGE #'s and a relaxed stride with a miler's pedigree still make you a miler.
29. Atomic Rain - May have the most room for improvement of any here.
30. Toulouse Lautrec - A maiden with a hot head who will be tough up to nine furlongs.

2008

2008-12-24T23:57:00.000-08:00

As we come to the last major stakes weekend of the year, I would be remiss if I did not reflect on the ups and downs of 2008.

Sure, there was great sadness in Eight Belles, but there was even more depravity in how the press treated her connections. Yes, there were additional, supposedly safer, synthetic racetracks developed, but there was also a serious lack of research going into making more tracks safer dirt courses like those in Japan, or such as the Fair Grounds, Tampa Bay Downs or Hawthorne.

Now, for the simply stellar.

The real story of 2008 was Curlin. His victory in the Dubai World Cup, that made the world believe in his talent, was the first major exclamation point of 2008. His follow up victory in the Stephen Foster, a race in which so many Dubai destroyers had nobly failed before him, put him in a separate category. That race, to me, makes him Horse of the Year over the undefeated filly phenom, Zenyatta. Yes, Zenyatta was undefeated. I concede her dominance over her own sex. But, the only way a female horse wins "HOY", in my book, is if she beats the opposite sex at the top of their game, or there is simply no standout in any other division. If Curlin would have only performed on conventional dirt, he would have been undefeated with wins at Churchill, Belmont, and Saratoga in American Grade 1's, and not one, but TWO wins overseas against the best international competition. This is not a case for Curlin, but a statement of record that he annexed territory that had yet to be completed successfully.

The story of Big Brown was one that made us once again believe in an exceptional talent, and then have them revealed to be the very flesh and blood of the predecessors. Such is the life of the American Thoroughbred Superstar. In Europe, Zarkava proved to have the best kick that I have seen since Pientre Celebre. Since fillies usually peak at four, it would be incredible to see what might have been next year. I cannot fault her connections, though, for putting her away after she had won the biggest race in Europe as an undefeated sophomore. What a filly!

Horses to watch in 2008? Look no farther than this weekend's big races. The Malibu features a fantastic group, including the talented Mandella-trained Into Mischief, who will most likely go off as a slight favorite over Travers and Santa Anita Derby winner Colonel John. The horse who will come out of this race as the most likely winner, in my eyes, and possibly with the brightest future (at least on the racetrack) is Georgie Boy. If they are lined up at the eighth pole, he will out kick the entire field, hands-down (see him here at the track and distance beating Into Mischief). After this race, expect to see him lighting up the Santa Anita meet, and possibly taking his act east.

Though I am tempted to say he has been over-raced this year, Gio Ponti is a horse with a huge future if he keeps improving. He is the best horse in the Sir Beaufort field, and should only lose if he has an awful trip, again. He may have won the Hollywood Derby, had he any luck at all. Also, cutting back in distance will help this colt, whose best distance is probably 8.5 to 9 furlongs.

Indian Blessing is the star in the La Brea-G1, but do not be surprised if it is that official coronation of a new queen of racing, Country Star. This filly has had her troubles, but should keep improving with age, as she is incredibly well-bred. Her dam, the very talented Rings a Chime, was good enough to win the Ashland and place in the Kentucky Oaks, both on conventional dirt courses (beating champions Cash Run and Spain). A great deal of her talent was in her deceptively deep pedigree. Her no-name sire, Metfield, was a son of Seattle Slew out Inca Queen. The latter was, in turn, a daughter of Hail to Reason (sire of greats Roberto and Halo), out of Silver Spoon (a Citation-sired champion who is one of only two fillies to sweep both the Santa Anita Oaks and Derby).

Rings a Chime (pictured beating the ultra-fantastic producer Zaftig in the Ashland)'s dam was a gritty stakes winner named Outofthebluebell and her damsire is Red Ryder. Not familiar to you? Well, he just so happened to be the only full brother to Mr. Prospector, and was sent to South Africa in 1990. He was unraced, and his influence is few and far between in the U.S., but beware of him in pedigrees. He and his much more famous brother were bred for speed, speed, a dash of two-turn grit, and more speed.

Do not be surprised if Country Song has all her chinks patched up and is ready to eventually take on, I dare say it, Zenyatta?! I do dare.

The last star in the making to watch this weekend is Baffert's filly, Internallyflawless. This Giant's Causeway, out of a Seeking the Gold daughter of the great producer, Korveya, will have something to say about 2009. She is bred to run on everything, so do not be put off if she gives the two big IEAH/Tapit fillies a run for their money in the Las Virgenes and S.A. Oaks. Her race in the Miesque was not mind-blowing, but she just kept coming. She's a grinder who just might develop into a much more blinding closer. Seeking the Gold's influence is often just that- his horses often go from useful to flashing the closing fortitude of I Am The Game, Concern or Looming.

My biggest predictions for 2009, though, are human ones. I think Edgar Prado will take his reign back as the top jockey in America from Garrett Gomez. Rafael Bejarano will get the best rides of the year, but still will fall just short of the top two. Ramon Dominguez will be the big surprise. He will jump up into the top 3 or 4 jockeys, and may possibly win a classic race.

2009 may be the year that Bob Baffert returns to his rightful position on top of the sport. He is arguably the best all-around trainer in the game, and the most talented big-race trainer in the country. It will take a great deal to knock off the scary momentum of Steve Asmussen and Dick Dutrow. Do not be surprised if Larry Jones has an amazing year, as well. He is looking stacked for 2009, despite calling it quits at the end of the year. Proud Spell, Old Fashioned, and Solar Flare look to come back big time for the tough grass-roots trainer.

Cheers, everyone, and happy new year! Let's keep this sport together, progressing, and taking care of its people and animals.

Your $600 Worth

2008-12-07T23:36:00.000-08:00

There was one eye-catching performance this weekend, and it was not from any winners. In Louisiana, Calder-based Big Drama won a battle with West Side Bernie for the lucrative win at Delta Downs. Though both were impressive, and both ran great numbers, the most impressive race was from third-place finisher Stimulus Plan. Launching his bid from about 15 lengths off the pace after a quarter, the Jump Start colt ran to within two lengths at the wire. More impressive was that Delta Downs has a very short stretch that all but disallows any closer from running a winning race.

If you examine Stimulus Plan's pedigree, it is no wonder that he has improved with both age and distance. His sire, Jump Start, was a star on the rise as a two-year-old until he was prematurely injured and sent to stud. Called one of D. Wayne Lukas' best juveniles ever, this son of A.P. Indy was an impressive winner of the Saratoga Special, as well as runner up behind one of the two-year-olds I have ever seen, Officer, in the Champagne. Out of a Storm Cat half sister to Miswaki, this stallion is bred to produce anything on any surface that can go a distance of ground. There is not a great deal of electrifying speed on this side, but there is on his dam's side.

Stimulus Plan's dam, Dutchess Alexandra, is by Judge Smells out of Courting Days by Bold Lad. First, it must be said that Courting Days is impeccably bred, herself. By Bold Lad, the champion juvenile and second best horse (behind Secretariat) ever produced by Bold Ruler, out of the Hail to Reason mare, Admiring, she was bred to run long and run often. Add to that the speed of Judge Smells, an undefeated pace-setting winner of the Hollywood Prevue Stakes from the blatantly speed-laden In Reality line, and you have a nice balance of a colt who will run better with age, distance, and experience. Oddly enough, there are also a great deal of horses with many starts in Stimulus Plans' pedigree, which is refreshing to see with the current fragile state of racing.

1. 1. 2. Break Water Edison
2. 2. 5. Old Fashioned
3. 3. 3. Charitable Man
4. 4. 1. Flying Pegasus
5. 5. Silver City
6. 6. Quality Road
7. 7. 7. Regal Ransom
8. 8. 7. Indygo Mountain
9. Stimulus Plan
10. 9. 8. Royal Vindication
11. 10. 9. Hello Broadway
12. West Side Bernie
13. 13. 11. Midshipman
14. 14. 12. Capt Candyman Can

This colt has raced four times and never finished worse than third. I expect big things and catapult him to #9 on my Kentucky Quatorze: Top 14 Derby Prospects. Runner-up in the Delta Jackpot, West Side Bernie, ran well enough to merit moving into the #12 spot, while Big Drama has to prove that he can win a similar race over a longer stretch and distance. Any colt by Montbrook out of a Notebook mare is new Florida speed on top of old florida sprinter speed. Any ability to go two turns is an influence from Damascus, Tom Fool, and Prince John far back in his pedigree enough to only take him 'but so far.' Also, his stride is very much a miler's stride, while those of the previously mentioned colts make us want to see them go longer.

Coming up we have the CashCall/Hollywood Futurity, as our last big juvenile race of the year. This race is being hyped as a clash between Zayat Stables' highly touted Pioneerof the Nile, whose name makes me cringe, and Sid and Jenny Craig Estate's Chocolate Candy, a son of my favorite freshman stallion, Candy Ride. The latter won the Real Quiet Stakes at the course and distance, but as a student of the game, I must say that this race is most likely going to be won by a newcomer, as neither of the top two have run numbers that make them anywhere in the vacinity of the term, 'standout.' Watch out for anyone that renowned late-developing juvenile trainers such as Neil Drysdale, Richard Mandella, Eoin Harty, Bob Baffert, or Doug O'Neill throw in this race.

Kentucky Quatorze: My Top 14 Derby Prospects

2008-12-01T12:01:00.000-08:00

Ranking / Previous Week’s Ranking / Horse
1. 2. Break Water Edison
2. 5. Old Fashioned
3. 3. Charitable Man
4. 1. Flying Pegasus
5. Silver City
6. Quality Road
7. 7. Regal Ransom
8. 7. Indygo Mountain
9. 8. Royal Vindication
10. 9. Hello Broadway
11. 4. Skipadate
12. 10. Trinity Magic
13. 11. Midshipman
14. 12. Capt Candyman Can

On the Edge:
15. 13. Vineyard Haven
16. 14. Well Positioned

The story this week was breakout performances by horses who looked primed to do so. Old Fashioned made everyone take a second glance after his tour de force in the Remsen. I see a great deal of potential in this colt, but I do see his damsire, Meadowlake, as a liability. Meadowlake is notorious for young runners, especially juveniles, who develop early and very rarely improve after the midpoint of their sophomore years. To be fair, Unbridled’s Song’s offspring do well at younger ages as well. This makes me wonder if, despite his few races, he is simply more physically developed than his counterparts. On the other hand, we have another new gray superstar budding in Silver City, who flew Alysheba’s famed colors to a sharp victory at Churchill. Watch out for this colt and his stablemate, Indygo Mountain. Another big debut was Quality Road in an Aqueduct maiden. This Jimmy Jerkins-trained colt is beautifully bred with Elusive Quality on top and a full sister to feisty champion, Ajina, on the bottom. Ajina was a talented, tough stalker who could put up some big numbers. She was also a great deal more aggressive than her stablemate, Escena. Perhaps that is why she was a bit less consistent. In this, do not be surprised if Quality Road is equally as spotty.

I am still waiting to see what will come of the Nashua’s top three (Break Water Edison, Hello Broadway, Royal Vindication), but all three bode pedigrees that force us to take a second look at their chances in the Big Dance. I do see Break Water Edison developing really well in the future. His sire, Lemon Drop Kid, improved with age. Also, he has some great classic influence with Risen Star, Secretariat, and Ack Ack on his damside. It is also a good thing that they are giving him some time off, as he ran a great deal already this year (five times), including a quick two-week wheeling after a gritty second in the Saratoga Special.

I am still waiting to hear about Regal Ransom, but I am still a big fan of this colt with a wonderful high cruising rate. Hopefully he is still here in the U.S. and not training in the U.A.E. with the rest of Darley’s first string. I get the feeling that Charitable Man will be a late-comer in the sophomore Derby trials, as he is slated to return to training in early January.

Many of you may be wondering who in the heck Flying Pegasus is. He’s the tough once-beaten colt who finished second in the Futurity to Charitable Man. He showed so much talent that day, that I have to keep him in my top tier. He has a beautiful energy-saving stride and a great cruising rate. Do not be surprised to see Skipadate move his very game efforts from grass to dirt. He is bred for the dirt and has his sire’s signature high knee action. Trinity Magic has shown some impressive numbers, but simply has to prove that he can do it around two turns this week in the Delta Jackpot. Midshipman and Vineyard Haven are low on the list because he is going to Dubai. Captain Candyman Can ran gamely, but must run like less of a miler and more of a stayer if he is to ‘stay’ on this list. The other two colts who finished with him in the KJC, Giant Oak and winner Beethoven, both failed to truly impress me. Let us see them do it again and in faster numbers. Lastly, Well Positioned is still on here because I believe he will jump up and impress more people than myself. He is bred to get better with age and love a distance of ground.

Here’s to the Derby Trail!

Charity Break

2008-11-24T23:25:00.000-08:00

Back in the summer I was touting two juveniles that I thought could be huge threats in subsequent months and (possibly) years. Both of these sons of Lemon Drop Kid have made their marks.

I do not believe Charitable Man, the winner of the Grade 2 Futurity Stakes, and Break Water Edison, winner of the Grade 3 Nashua Stakes, will have gone by the wayside when we recollect the crop of 2006. The former will be a force if he is healthy in 2009, and the latter will most likely win the Remsen this weekend. Let the games begin...my current Kentucky Derby Fabulous 14:

1. Flying Pegasus
2. Break Water Edison
3. Charitable Man
4. Skipadate
5. Old Fashioned
6. Regal Ransom
7. Indygo Mountain
8. Royal Vindication
9. Hello Broadway
10. Trinity Magic
11. Midshipman
12. Capt Candyman Can
13. Vineyard Haven
14. Well Positioned

The Curlin Show is Closing

2008-11-19T10:13:00.000-08:00

Big surprise. Though it was a gesture of great sportsmanship, it was ultimately a mistake to run him in the Breeders' Cup. The interesting part is that Big Brown probably would have won that race, considering the winning speed figure of Raven's Pass and the nature of the racetrack. What might have been?

In any case, Curlin retires now as the richest Western Hemisphere racehorse in history. This is quite the feat, as he did so in only 16 starts and in a very similar purse structure to Cigar. Despite never running over a 119 Beyer, he retires as one of the most impressive animals I have seen. His races in the Dubai World Cup (where I am fairly sure a Beyer rating would have had him at about a 122-124) and Stephen Foster stick out as his most impressive. The former because of the sheer force he was while peaking, and the latter considering the shipping and curse of previous Dubai winners in that very same race. Also, the Preakness was a brilliant showing over a rival that proved to be just a notch below him, the radiant Street Sense.

Curlin was great for racing. Hopefully he adds to the sport what Jess Jackson has been hoping: strength, scope, soundness and stamina to a breed going in the opposite direction on all accounts. The Curlin show is closing, but every time a big horse leaves, an equal emerges from the dust. Here's hoping.

A Sweet Departure

2008-11-14T08:18:00.000-08:00

Despite the floundering economy’s affect on the racing industry, I remain with a smile on my face. Still, there are many horses running who are exciting and interesting. I would like to focus today on a stallion that a lot of people did not expect to do well, except me. His name is Candy Ride, and he is showing signs of very big things.

In 2002, Candy ride began his career in South America where he won three races in amazing style, including a one-mile world record in an unworldly 1:31. That is not a typo. This horse was serious business. He was snatched up by Sid and Jenny Craig and brought to America to be under the watchful eye of Ron McAnally in 2003. In the U.S. he would go on to win his first start impressively, an allowance, and then ran away much the best in the grassy All-American(G2) at Hollywood Park. This was no small feat, considering he beat one of the best milers of the last ten years, Special Ring, at his own game in the process. His winning Beyer Speed Figure was approximately a 107.

Next came an ambitious challenge for the bay son of Ride the Rails- a handicapping behemoth named Medaglia d’Oro. At the time, Medaglia d’Oro was the top-ranked older runner in America. With Jerry Bailey in the irons, Medaglia d’Oro dictated the Pacific Classic for seven furlongs until a patient Julie Krone let out what must have scared Bailey out of his stirrups. Candy Ride not only took the race to Medaglia d’Oro with over three furlongs remaining, but he waltzed past him with 3/16 to go and won easily. In a four horse race, left in the dust was Fleetstreet Dancer, who would go on to win the $2.4million Japan Cup Dirt, and Milwaukee Brew, who won consecutive Santa Anita Handicaps. Candy Ride won with a massive Beyer of 124, and did it in an effortlessly perfect style that I have only seen one horse come close to since. That horse was Ghostzapper, a mere one year later. What a match up that would have been! Alas, that’s a story for another day.

Candy Ride is the offspring of Ride the Rails, who had the misfortune of bumping heads with a very difficult crop of 1991. He beat the champion, Dehere, in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park, then went on to clash with Halo’s Image, Holy Bull, Go for Gin and Patton. In an extremely talented group of Florida-based sophomores, he held his own. He was bred for the dangerous combination of endurance and closing speed. Cryptoclearance, his sire, is famous for providing horses with a vicious turn of foot (e.g. Victory Gallop, Traitor, Crypto Star, Volponi, Strategic Maneuver, Cryptocloser and Millennium Wind) and was famous, himself, for looping entire fields with an effortless stride. He definitely passed that fluidity on to Candy Ride. Candy Ride’s female side is Candy Stripes/Blushing Groom brilliance on top of Argentinian grit. What that leaves you with, if the chemicals react perfectly, is a fluid, fast-closing, brilliant, high-cruising, gritty colt. It worked perfectly.

Candy Ride was unlucky enough to injure himself before he would have to tangle with his last expected hurdles: Congaree and Pleasantly Perfect. Those two would go on to win the last two big races for older horses, the Breeders’ Cup Classic and Cigar Mile. Though brilliant, I am fairly certain Candy Ride would have beaten both. He retired with a perfect 6-for-6 and an empty feeling of what might have been left in his awed fans, including myself.

Now a stallion, his first offspring are hitting the ground running, despite him not getting a great deal of commercial attention. What I find interesting about him is that his breeding works perfectly with the two most prolific American Stallions: Storm Cat and A.P. Indy. Actually, his current big runner (Capt Candyman Can) is out of a Storm Cat mare. With the abundance of those two lines out there, paired with Candy Ride’s fantastic outcross, I expect HUGE things in the future for this stallion.

Classic

2008-10-25T12:49:00.000-07:00

The Big Dance.

Here comes Curlin. He is the most accomplished horse in the field, and now he has to go against the best 10 furlong horse in Europe, over a surface that is equally novel to both. I see this race, despite all of the other accomplished, tough animals, as a match between these two beasts. Curlin is big, muscular, flowing, and graceful in his approach, while Duke of Marmalade is maneuverable, tall, and loves to outclass his rivals by many lengths.

This race may lack Big Brown, but I doubt he could have measured up to these two champions. Between them they have twelve G1 wins; Enough said.

BUT, will they take to the surface? Will they be able to hold off the brilliant synthetic specialists? Go Between will run well, but will it be good enough? The same goes for Tiago.

If I am to bet one horse in this race that will run well on the surface, it is none of the above. He has one race over the surface, and he should have won it. He is a full brother to multiple turf champions, his kick will be comparable to any horse you will see in any of these races, and comes from arguably the best stable in the world.

His name is Champs Elysees, and he is coming up to this race like the only horse capable of running down the two big champions, if traffic works in his favor. I think the distance is his best and he will give a good showing of himself.

Alas, I cannot pick against the top two. But, who will it be? If Duke of Marmalade and Curlin are lined up at the 1/8 pole, which no doubt Murtagh will make sure the former is, I cannot see the might Curlin out-kicking Duke of Marmalade. Danehills have taken quite well to the synthetics (see: Champs Elysees), and his damsire, Kingmambo, has had many offspring run well on the synthetics. He should outrun the speedy duo of stablemate Henrythenavigator and Godolphin rival Raven's Pass, and will be chased to no avail by the classy Tiago and Champs Elysees.

1. (4) Duke of Marmalade 6-1
2. (9) Curlin 8-5
3. (12) Champs Elysees 20-1
4. (4) Tiago 15-1
5. (8) Raven's Pass 10-1

Turf

2008-10-25T12:42:00.000-07:00

Perhaps the classiest race of the day is the Breeders' Cup Turf. Soldier of Fortune will be difficult to beat in this race, given his ability to rate. If there is way to beat this horse, you have to find an animal with a strong kick. Soldier of Fortune is very similar to High Chaparral, as he is very much a grinding type. Horses with strong kicks like Red Rocks and Grand Couturier will have something to say about the last quarter mile.

Ultimately, I think this race will come down to two Europeans with huge finishing kicks: Eagle Mountain and Conduit. The latter will be tough, as Sir Michael Stoute always comes with guns loaded. For this reason, as this is a wide open race, I lean toward him. He is making his second start since July, while having a nice six week break from his classic win in the St. Leger at Doncaster, Great Britain.

Eagle Mountain's distance abilities may work against him here, and Soldier of Fortune will be nearly impossible to beat, but I think Ryan Moore will be on the best horse of the day. Red Rocks will have something to say about the race, while Grand Couturier is America's best chance at defending the homeland.

1. (9) Conduit 6-1
2. (4) Soldier of Fortune 3-1
3. (2) Red Rocks 9-2
4. (11) Eagle Mountain 6-1
5. (3) Grand Couturier 4-1

Sprint

2008-10-25T12:07:00.000-07:00

The one race that I am throwing out the synthetic book is the Sprint. I will probably eat my words, but this race is one that I am simply going to root for the horse that is the best.

This race, unlike many other Sprints, is a small field. Only eight horses line up, but there are three speed horses to watch. Black Seventeen, who beat Fabulous Strike in the slop, is a tough customer on the synthetic as well. After running a peak performance, I am expected him to bounce. Fatal Bullet has been riding up the ranks, winning races impressively, and is trained by Reade Baker, a talented conditioner. Today he will have to go well under :22 for his first quarter, so I doubt he will be ready to do that against Fabulous Strike.

Fabulous Strike is running for the second time off a layoff, should take to the synthetic, and is the fastest force of pace. He will get the jump on the other two pace-setters from the inside, and will hopefully have enough to hold off the two closers: Midnight Lute and Street Boss. Do not count out the tough conditioner, Clement, with In Summation. He will be the only true stalker with a chance here, and will take advantage of a fast pace.

So, in the end, I look for Fabulous Strike to hold off Midnight Lute and Street Boss, with In Summation being out-kicked by those two, and Black Seventeen bouncing back in fifth.

1. (3) Fabulous Strike 7-2
2. (4) Midnight Lute 5-1
3. (2) Street Boss 3-1
4. (7) In Summation 8-1
5. (6) Black Seventeen 12-1

Juvenile Turf

2008-10-25T11:12:00.000-07:00

One of my favorite races of the day is the Juvenile Turf. This is the 2nd running of this race, and it is full of class. The best American is Skipadate, a fantastic son of champion Skip Away, who has not become the stallion force that everyone wished. Though he will be the one I am rooting for, I believe he will be outclassed by Coolmore's Westphalia.

Westphalia ran a huge race last out in the Champagne (G2) in England, a race that is well placed (6 weeks) for this one. I think this colt, given a patented Murtagh ride, will be tough and should run from the back of the pack with Bittel Road.

Another closer to watch is the Canadian, Grand Adventure. This colt ran a huge race to stay undefeated last out in the Summer, barely nipping Skipadate (see: photo). He ran a nice Beyer, and should be a tough customer if given the proper ride by Bejarano. Frostad has come to the west coast before and won a Breeders' Cup race (Chief Bearheart), so I do not doubt his training prowess.

Lastly, never underestimate ex-Californian, John Gosden. He brings Donativum, who is going to be difficult to beat under the pace-smart Dettori. Last out he beat 23 other horses under 129 lbs. He gets a rider upgrade and has run extremely well on firm turf. Like Bittel Road, I look for him to run well but be outclassed by the previously mentioned trio of Westphalia, the proverbial bridesmaid Skipadate, and Canadian champion-to-be, Grand Adventure.

1. (3) Westphalia 3-1
2. (10) Skipadate 8-1
3. (12) Grand Adventure 5-1
4. (4) Donativum 8-1
5. (11) Bittel Road 4-1

Juvenile

2008-10-25T11:03:00.000-07:00

The young ones get rolling in the Bessemer Trust Juvenile. Like a great deal of the dirt races, you have to look at their pedigrees to see who will run the best.

The first pedigree that pops out at me is West Side Bernie. I believe this colt will be overlooked because of his post position, despite the fact that he has two turn experience and has had outside posts in both races. He will be under-bet.

Bushranger is the class of this field with two G1 wins in Europe and a third place in another. He's a gorgeous bay (see: photo) who is from the Danzig line (through Danetime and Danehill), who should at least be useful on this surface. He drops a few pounds in this race, which will help, and he has Murtagh, who is the Prado of Europe. He places his horses in the best possible spot, and I expect this to be no different.

Square Eddie will be tough if he repeats his last, but this field is a serious one that will give him more of a tussle than the Breeders' Futurity. Yesterday, we saw another Keeneland runaway winner 'lay an egg,' when (my choice) Carriage Trail ran a dull fourth in the Ladies Classic.

Munnings will be a question mark, considering he has yet to run over a synthetic course. He gets Velazquez back, which will help greatly. Last time, in the Champagne, he should have pushed the pace-setting winner, but DeCarlo chose to take him off the pace. I am not convinced he will take to the surface, but I could be wrong.

Lastly, we have Midshipman. This colt is a bit of a grinder, but given the right ride, could be a winner. Gomez picks up the mount, which is a huge plus. Baffert has been developing this well-bred colt progressively, and that leads me to believe he is the little-known 'horse to beat.'

1. (11) Midshipman 6-1
2. (13) West Side Bernie 12-1
3. (12) Bushranger 6-1
4. (4) Square Eddie 3-1
5. (1) Munnings 6-1

Mile

2008-10-25T10:04:00.000-07:00

The real grass racing gets under way in the Mile. This race is full of really classy horses (and mares), but the difference between this and other Santa Anita Breeders' Cup Miles is that it is eleven will line up, not fourteen. I think the best horse will win, but it might not be who everyone is expecting.

I have been watching U.S. Ranger for over a year, and know quite well that he was regarded as Coolmore's best guineas hope of 2007. He has been kept sprinting this year, but never in five furlong races. His race in the Darley July Cup (see: photo) was huge under 131 lbs, barely losing to Europe's best (and possibly most beautiful gray; you know I love them!) sprinter, Marchand d'Or. He has been kept at longer sprints, like last out in the seven furlong G1 Prix de la Foret, where he was only 2.5 lengths behind Natagora, who is possibly the best three year old filly in Europe. He carried 6 lbs more than her that day, and today, under equal weights to most of these horses, with Murtagh in the irons, I cannot see him being denied.

A lot can be said of his chief European rival here, Goldikova. She is riding a three-race win streak, including two group ones at this distance. She is trained by Miesque's jockey, Freddie Head, who obviously knows a little about good miler fillies. The one strike here is that she is ridden by Peslier, who often poorly times his American rides (see: Freedom Cry), and will have to deal with a left-hand turn for the first time. If she does well with that, she is the filly to watch.

The Americans will not be denied a say in the outcome today, though. We bring three really tough older horses. Kip Deville will be a tough defender of his crown, but it is well known that he only has an edge on softer turf. On harder ground, he is just as tough as anyone else. The horse to catch is the ultra-classy Daytona, who has won seven of his last nine races. He loves to set a quick pace and pick it up again, which is easily possible today at a distance that is 1/8-1/4 mile shorter than his optimum.

Lastly, Whatsthescript is possibly John Sadler's best chance at an upset today. He will be closing late, but should be outpaced by the aforementioned Europeans. I am hoping for U.S. Ranger to show how classy he is, if nothing else, for being from the last crop of possibly the best Breeders' Cup stallion of all time: Danzig. Not to mention being out of a Red Ransom half-sister to Dynaformer. This colt is Coolmore at a price; Take him. Put him on top of a hugely under bet classy colt, in Daytona, and you have my boxcar exacta of the day.

1. (7) U S Ranger 20-1
2. (5) Daytona 20-1
3. (4) Goldikova 8-5
4. (2) Kip Deville 7-2
5. (11) Whatsthescript 6-1

Dirt Mile

2008-10-25T09:59:00.000-07:00

The races keep getting better!

The Dirt Mile, in its second running, is back at an actual "mile," here. The synthetic is probably, once again, the biggest boundary and attribute to a great deal of these horses. This may be the best chance for people to make money, with many of my favorite horses looking like they are going to go off at over 10-to-1.

The two big long shots that people should take notice of are Rebellion and Two Step Salsa. They are trained by Breeders' Cup "big dance" trainers, Graham Motion and Julio Canani. These conditioners will have them ready and probably have been pointing to this race for quite some time. Rebellion will be coming late and Two Step Salsa will be trying to keep his head in front of the tough Well Armed the entire race.

Well Armed will most likely outclass most of these horses in the final 3/16th's, but I do not believe he will outclass all of them. Lewis Michael is the one colt who has run huge numbers and comes from a tough trainer who knows how to get a horse ready for any type of race. Lewis Michael is a synthetic-loving full brother to the classy turf mare and dirt champion, Dreaming of Anna, who will be sitting off of a few super-fast speedsters (Two Step Salsa, Well Armed, Slew's Tizzy, Mast Track). Sitting near Lewis Michael, I expect to see the always tough Surf Cat. Headley, once again, has a horse here who would destroy these on a regular dirt course, but is making due with a colt who is classy and tough.

I am not sure why Coa is on Lewis Michael, but I hope that he has him in the proverbial "catbird seat" at the quarter pole, alongside Surf Cat, and ready to run away from them like he did in the Pat O'Brien at Del Mar. This will put an exclamation point on a really gritty and diverse career that you would expect from any offspring of Rahy.

1. (1) Lewis Michael 8-1
2. (8) Well Armed 8-5
3. (5) Two Step Salsa 20-1
4. (2) Surf Cat 10-1
5. (10) Rebellion 15-1

Turf Sprint

2008-10-25T09:22:00.000-07:00

One of my favorite races of the entire Breeders' Cup program is the inaugural Turf Sprint. This race is bald speedsters and bold closers clashing down the hill and into a 1/4 mile stretch that crosses over a sometimes troublesome main course. Sometimes the main course impedes a closer's momentum, and thus this course often favors speed horses.

I would not be surprised if today a track record was set. The beautiful and fast gray gelding, California Flag, along with Hero's Reward, True to Tradition and Mr. Nightlighter will all be fiercely fast out of the gate. California Flag may be the fastest, but that is something we will not know until the gates are opened.

In the meantime, I do have to admit that I am throwing them all out due to their abundance, and going toward a classy European trained by the venerable Jeremy Noseda, Fleeting Spirit. This filly, tackling the older males is a staggering closer who will finally get the insane pace she needs to be competitive at the highest level. She will have a good post (2) and will be coming at the end under the always dangerous Johnny Murtagh.

1. (2) Fleeting Spirit 6-1
2. (3) True to Tradition 8-1
3. (14) Mr. Nightlighter 3-1
4. (1) Hero's Reward 20-1
5. (10) California Flag 10-1

Marathon

2008-10-25T09:16:00.000-07:00

In the Marathon we have the match-up of Americans trying to stretch their speed vs. Europeans trying to adapt to U.S. synthetics. I am going to have to side with the latter. The Americans are not very impressive in this race, side from the ornery roan, Delightful Kiss, who has been BURNING up the track at Golden Gate since his win in the All American.

I expect Zappa to go to the front, but he will have plenty of company with Booyah and Talamo. He will be tough to catch, despite this, but I believe the Euros will be coming. Sixties Icon, if he likes the surface, is the class of this field. There are few trainers better at getting a horse to run well in America than Jeremy Noseda, who has been pointing this English classic winner to this race for a while. Alas, I do not think he will win. That money is going toward to other Euro, Muhannak. This colt is by Chester House, whose offspring really love synthetics. This makes sense, being that Chester House could run on anything, had a huge kick, and was lightly framed. Lightly framed horses have an innate advantage over a deep bouncy surface. They can recover more quickly from each step, as well as kick very strongly through the lane. Ventura was a perfect example of that.

I am looking at Muhannak over Sixties Icon in an All-Anglo exacta. Delightful Kiss is honest and coming up to a big race, but I still think his best race is a length shorter than the aforementioned. Right behind Delightful Kiss I would put pace-setter Zappa and Neil Drysdale's (whom we know is ALWAYS dangerous on Breeders' Cup day) charge, Cedar Mountain, who is 1-for-2 on synthetics. This colt is here for a reason, but I think he will fall short of a distance/synthetic star in Muhannak.

1. (5) Muhannak 15-1
2. (4) Sixties Icon 2-1
3. (3) Delightful Kiss 6-1
4. (6) Zappa 5-2
5. (8) Cedar Mountain 6-1

Ladies' Classic

2008-10-24T08:17:00.000-07:00

For the first time in years, the Distaff becomes its own centerpiece. For all of those years it, along with the sprint, has often been the most competitive event of the day. Today, in the newly thought out Ladies Day, it has been re-coined the Ladies' Classic, which is the only stupid aspect of this.

On a day for classic performances, many believe this is going to be the crowning of a huge year for Zenyatta. She will go off as the heaviest favorite of the day, but I find flaws in this nearly flawless creature, that force me to go against the grain. Perhaps I simply want to beat a big favorite, which I am prone to, but there is a chance that the hype is too big and the opposition too poorly regarded.

I have two reasons to bet against this filly.
1.) Her worst race was at this distance. She won with a speed figure 4.5 lengths slower than her races at 8.5 furlongs. Some say it was the heat that got to her, but I think it was an overconfident jockey. Mike Smith is often overly confident, and that could be her undoing. Smith could be overconfident on a filly that could come from anywhere, like Azeri, but not here. This filly is a one-run specialist with a stride that needs to build on its own momentum. If he moves too early again, she will be prone to reason #2:
2.) Carriage Trail. This filly is going to be difficult to beat. She is trained by a Breeders' Cup master, Shug McGaughey, and is coming off a breakout race in the Spinster. The last two times McGaughey won this race were with Spinster runners: Inside Information and Pleasant Home. If he has her right, she can get the jump on Zenyatta and dare her to catch her. She is also a more maneuverable filly than the big favorite, which makes her even more dangerous.

The three big "X Factors" in this race are the one-two finishers from last year, Champion Ginger Punch and Hystericalady, along with the (destined to be highly under-bet) Santa Teresita. The latter is coming into her second race off a layoff, while also giving Zenyatta all she could handle in the Milady back in May. She regains Michael Baze, the last rider to win on her, and loves the surface. Ginger Punch likes the surface but is coming off two tough races. She seems to have lost at least a length, and is the one filly that Frankel has been surprisingly quiet about. My feeling here is that Stronach wanted to run and Frankel figured she would at least give a respectable showing in her career bow. Lastly, my favorite filly in the race is Hysteralady. On regular dirt, she is my pick in this race. On synthetics, she is merely #3. She will be tough, she will give them all she can handle, and then she will be overpowered by two well-adapted synthetic-loving fillies.

Of the two Godolphin fillies, I think Music Note will be tougher, despite going off at higher odds. She's out of a Sadler's Wells mare and should like the extra cushion. But, both of these fillies are running into a field and circumstances that are beyond their prowess. Bear Now is in way over her head. On a dirt course, she is in the top five, but that is null and void.

1. (5) Carriage Trail 6-1
2. (1) Zenyatta 4-5
3. (2) Hystericalady 10-1
4. (6) Ginger Punch 5-1
5. (7) Santa Teresita 15-1

Filly & Mare Turf

2008-10-24T07:52:00.000-07:00

The first of the "SERIOUS" races comes in the Filly & Mare Turf. This race is the clash of the mighty grey (or roan)'s, it seems. From Ireland, we have the brilliant 3-time G1 winner, Halfway to Heaven. This filly is absolutely an absolutely gorgeous dark roan/grey and can win from anywhere.

Then we have the American combo of Wait a While and Forever Together. Both of these fillies come off smashing wins and have completely different styles. Wait a While will sit off the pace and "wait a while" until the 5/16 pole. Forever Together will come from out of the clouds and hope the stretch magically lengthens to her liking, or the fillies ahead of her all get stung by bees.

BUT, I am going to go against the grain today. Or, rather, against the grey(s). Today is the day for Mauralakana. This filly has fought all year and deserves to win this race for Christophe Clement. She has won 5 of 7 on all types of going, and will be ready to go one more time. She definitely deserves a chance here, and is my most reliable bet in this race. Wait a While will be tough to catch, Halfway to Heaven will be nearly impossible to out kick, and Forever Together will be arduous to hold off, but I put my money and kind regards on Mauralakana.

Almost more difficult than that is finding which filly will come in fifth place. In a race where I expect they all will finish within 6 lengths of one another, fifth place is no bad showing. To me, I must once again go with the turf master, Christophe Clement. I think he will have his other Charge, the ULTRA-classy Vacare ready to pounce. She may ever run better than we expect her to, so do not be afraid to throw her on top if the race falls apart. She had a poor ride and trip last out, but will get a better chance this time, as Valdivia is a highly underrated judge of pace. If she's in 3rd or 4th after a half mile, she will be tough to beat. Alas, I think she will be out-kicked late (being that 10 furlongs is a furlong beyond her best distance) by the aforementioned four fillies. I'm throwing out Dynaforce, simply because she will be over-bet due to the Mott factor, and will be slightly less of a 'force' on harder ground.

1. (7) Mauralakana 5-1
2. (5) Wait a While 7-2
3. (8) Halfway to Heaven 3-1
4. (3) Forever Together 4-1
5. (2) Vacare 12-1

Juvenile Fillies

2008-10-24T07:19:00.000-07:00

The races just do not get any easier. Thirteen fillies line up in the Juvenile Fillies, and a case can be made for over half of them. I will narrow it down to five.

The first name that jumps out at me in this race is Persistently, who is persistently running well. She has yet to go two turns, but I have no doubts that the Phipps Stable representative will be ready to do it, despite being by a sprinter sire (Smoke Glacken). Her dam is a Deputy Minister mare out of Heavenly Prize, who relished 10 furlongs. Distance-wise, she should be just fine. Also, I cannot find a reason to think she will not do well on synthetics. I think she will be coming at the end, but will fall short to four others that I highly regard.

Pursuit of Glory is a filly from the Coolmore operation that should adore the synthetic surface. In fact, she broke her maiden at Dundalk (Ireland) on polytrack. She is jumping up 2.5 furlongs and dealing with turns (two of them) for the first time in her life, but I think she will be up for the challenge. She is the best-bred filly in the field (big surprise, Coolmore!), by Fusaichi Pegasus, out of Sophisticat, who was a multiple G1 winner on turf, but is by Storm Cat out of the great Serena's Song. Sophisticat also ran into one of the best Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies races ever when she ran a relatively close fifth respectably behind Tempera, Imperial Gesture, Bella Bellucci, and You. ALL either G1 winners or very close to it (Bella Bellucci was perhaps the most highly regarded and was a multiple G2 winner. She also is a full sister to phenomenal Japanese Champion Kurofune). The distance jump will keep Pursuit of Glory from the winner's circle, but it will not keep her out of the money.

You must respect easy breakout performances, and those are just what we got from C.S. Silk and Sky Diva in their respective one-turn mile races in the Arlington-Washington Lassie and Frizette. They were equally as impressive. The nod has to go to Sky Diva, who should take well to synthetics. Being by Pulpit-line sire, Sky Mesa, whose line has done well on the rubbery sand, as well as training over Fair Hill's Tapeta, will serve this filly well. She is the class of the field, already winning around two turns and has a genius, Ramon Dominguez, in the saddle. The filly to beat.

C.S. Silk will be on the lead, but unless she can rate off the tough Be Smart, one must throw her down the ranks. Alas, we come to the big white phenom (and probably favorite), Stardom Bound. This Christopher Paasch filly is going to be coming at the end, but whom will she catch? If Sky Diva runs her race and starts pulling away from C.S. Silk and the leg-weary duo of Be Smart and Pursuit of Glory, I do not think she will be caught.

1. (4) Sky Diva 5-1
2. (10) Stardom Bound 8-5
3. (11) Pursuit of Glory 12-1
4. (8) C.S. Silk 10-1
5. (2) Persistently 12-1

Juvenile Fillies Turf

2008-10-23T12:24:00.000-07:00

Despite the Juvenile Fillies' Turf being a wide-open race, it is not shaping up as an extremely strong showing of talent. When this is the case, I find that one should always look at the connections of the horses. Certain connections have their respective animals more focused toward the big races, and their records reflect it.

Last year, in the first juvenile turf race of any kind, Aiden O'Brien nearly stole the show with a good second place finish. This year, he returns in the inaugural juvenile filly race with a 12-1 longshot named Heart Shaped. This Storm Cat filly, out of an Alydar mare, is bred to love the harder turf, which she will get at Santa Anita. She was fifth last out in the Cheveley Park Stakes (G1) at six furlongs. I would be more worried about the distance jump if O'Brien had not done something similar with Johannesburg. Not as good as Johannesburg, you say? Not a big deal. This field has no Came Homes, Officers, Repents, or Siphonics in it.

The two Americans who look the most promising will come from opposite sides of the pack. Laragh will be on the lead, especially with her 2 post. I worry about her being able to reproduce her last race (the most impressive prep-race of the field) on 15 days of rest. The other filly is Consequence, who boasts the best pedigree in the field. She is by El Prado, who can produce anything, out of Educated Risk, who was a brilliant dirt miler all 3 years she ran. She was also a half sister to the brilliantly fast Inside Information. Educated Risk, as a juvenile, was second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies to Eliza. Consequence has not run any blockbuster Beyers, but she has looked impressive, and definitely should enjoy firmer turf and a good pace to run at on Friday. I expect her to be passing many horses late, if not all of them.

One of the two fillies to watch out for in this race are Baffert's Internallyflawless, who has a very impressive course and distance win in a maiden race. Baffert steps fillies up who are ready, and if she is in this one (she still has to draw in with a defection), she will be tough. The other is another European named Beyond Our Reach. This filly comes from Group 1's in Europe and will be ridden by Dettori. I expect her to like a harder surface and put on a good show of herself here.

So, as far as dynamite Breeders' Cup connections we have Coolmore over Prado over McGaughey, followed by Baffert and Dettori. Does it get much better?

1. (12) Heart Shaped 12-1
2. (2) Laragh 7-2
3. (7) Consequence 8-1
4. (13) Internally Flawless 8-1
5. (10) Behond Our Reach 15-1

Filly & Mare Sprint

2008-10-21T22:21:00.000-07:00

The Breeders' Cup gets kicked off with a bang on Friday with the Filly & Mare Sprint. Now at 7 furlongs, the race is a platform for fillies looking to stretch their speed or shorten their closing kicks. In this, I believe you have to consider the nature of the track, itself, and the speed of the fillies, themselves.

There is a great deal of speed in this race, highlighted by the dynamite starter, Dearest Trickski. I believe this filly will be winging it from the outside (post 9). The one kicker, though, is she has to clear Dream Run (who was fast enough to set the pace last year, at 6 furlongs). This does not sit well for Dearest Trickski, so I will throw her out. The distance of 7 furlongs is her limit, so under this pressure I have to pass. In this, I will look at stalkers and closers. Dream Run, if she loves the surface, will be softened by such a battle. I cannot see her putting Dearest Trickski away and holding off a fleet of closers/stalkers.

The stretch at Santa Anita is shorter than most (like Monmouth's last year), but the Pro-Ride will suit closers better than a dirt course. In this, we have to look at who are the fastest stalkers and who are the fastest closers. Two names pop out to me, according to the numbers: Zaftig and Indian Blessing. They are lengths faster than their rivals on the numbers, but both have to answer some important questions: will they perform well off a layoff (Zaftig) and will they be as fast on a synthetic course (Indian Blessing). Zaftig, being by Gone West (who produces a great deal of turf horses) out of a Cozzene (a turf champion) mare seems to be made for the surface. Since the Acorn, I have believed that she is the fastest of her generation, but an injury has kept her in the barn until now. Jerkins is batting 22% with 'off the shelf' runners, and comes from a typically conservative training philosophy. The only worry is that his father (Allen) twice had arguably the best filly in a race (Sky Beauty) and could not win with her in the Breeders' Cup Distaff. Nonetheless, I am going to chalk that fault, and expect her class to get her there on Friday.

I cannot leave out Indian Blessing, especially with the hot pace in her face. Her class will keep her second, or third. A third filly that pops up, in my mind, is Ventura. She has the speed and closing ability to win this if Zaftig or Indian Blessing do not take to the surface. Frankel will have her ready, and we have no doubts about her ability to handle the surface. I am going to throw out (of the top 3) Intangaroo, as I believe she is 3 lengths slower on synthetics than dirt. Miraculous Miss and Magnificience will be coming late, as well. I have a great deal of respect for the latter, but I believe she is not a huge fan of the surface. This seems to be the curse of Bruce Headley's runners.

A 'doozy' to start the day(s) goes to Zaftig.

1. (6)Zaftig 8-1
2. (5)Indian Blessing 2-1
3. (12)Ventura 4-1
4. (3)Intangaroo 6-1
5. (1)Magnicience 15-1

Seconditis

2008-10-09T19:39:00.001-07:00

The final weekend of Breeders' Cup preparatory races did not treat me well. My picks went 2-for-21, with 10 second place finishes, many in photo finishes. I did manage to hit two trifectas, so all was not lost.

Instead of dwelling on a series of bad luck races, I will focus on my next few entries on the approaching 'Big Dance.' Over the next couple weeks, I shall thoroughly evaluate all fourteen of the approaching Breeders' Cup races, and their respective divisions.

Big Final Breeders' Cup Preview Weekend!

2008-10-03T13:35:00.000-07:00

FRIDAY

FIRST LADY-G1 KEE 4:40
1. Precious Kitten
2. Stormy West
3. Dreaming of Anna
Precious Kitten is simply faster than the rest and will be really tough to beat if she's anywhere near where she was when losing in a dogfight with Vacare last year. Stormy West loves Keeneland and Mott will have her ready. She ran a huge race in the Jenny Wiley in April on the same course and is bred beautifully. Dreaming of Anna will make all the pace and will kick strong. This race should set her up for a run in the Breeders' Cup Distaff. She should love SA's synthetic and likes nine furlongs. But, today, she looks to be below the challenge of Precious Kitten and the ever-savvy Bejarano.

ALCIBIADES-G1 KEE 5:10
1. Dream Empress
2. Devotee
3. Be Smart
I am completely throwing out Mani Bhavan, the big favorite. She's a sprinter until proven otherwise, and 8.5 furlongs over a tiring surface and a long stretch at Keeneland will serve her poorly. Dream Empress is prepared by a master and Devotee is bred to love the surface. I'll throw 2nd-time starter Be Smart in there, who is by Smarty Jones out of a 3/4 sister to the brilliant Buddha. I would put her higher, but nowadays having Lukas as a trainer is more of a liability in big races than a bonus. Also, going from 6 furlongs to a two turn race out of a big win is a vintage 'bad idea' move that Lukas does and usually fails at. This race is a toss up, but I think Dream Empress is going to love the surface and the distance, and McPeek has horses ready to run at Keeneland, especially in the Fall.

INDIANA OAKS-G2 HOO 7:00
1. Sky Mom
2. Skylighter
3. Pious Ashley
I am throwing out favorite Golden Doc A, because I believe she is a synthetic lover. Sky Mom is the horse to beat and Skylighter is the most intriguing filly in the field. The latter drew the rail, which will help in a big field in her big stakes debut. She's bred well enough to get it done, but I think a tougher Sky Mom will win this race big. Pious Ashley was supposed to be a great filly, but has yet to pan out. Hopefully this field is to her liking, and Romans is a trustworthy stakes trainer. Making only her fourth start, Pious Ashley is dangerous, especially being a late developing offspring of Include.

MEADOWLANDS CUP-G2 MED 10:22
1. Arson Squad
2. Past the Point
3. Anak Nakal
Arson Squad is a great horse and hates synthetics. Now, finally on the east coast, he is ready to prove that at his favorite distance. I hope he demolishes this field, but that's a tall task. Past the Point ran big against Curlin, but today he should is on a more speed-favoring course. I think he will get the better of fellow speed Timber Reserve and hold off a late closing Anak Nakal (for whom the speed bias will work against).

SATURDAY

PHOENIX-G2 KEE 3:18
1. Talent Search
2. Noonmark
3. Semaphore Man
If Talent Search is at his best and likes the polytrack, then he wins. Off the layoff is not a worry with new trainer Frankel. He is simply too fast and too talented. Noonmark, the best bred horse in the field (by Unbridled's Song out of a Storm Cat half-sister to Formal Gold) is honest and should be primed for a big one, while Semaphore Man is the unspoken star of the Southeastern sprint division who could easily run well enough to win or place.

JAMAICA-G2 BEL 3:39
1. Gio Ponti
2. Court Vision
3. Wesley
With sweeping turns and a nice stretch, Gio Ponti will win this race. He is the best American turf colt, which does not say much, and is a length or so better than both Wesley and Court Vision. Ready's Echo could sneak up and grab a spot if someone doesn't take to the course.

BREEDERS' FUTURITY-G1 KEE 4:00
1. Terrain
2. Majestic Blue
3. Zion
Terrain should remain "unbeaten" and win this. Advice will be right there, but his post works against him, so I had to throw him out. Instead I'll throw in McLaughlin's highly touted Majestic Blue. Zion is bred to both love synthetics and a distance of ground. Asmussen will have this colt ready to run. Terrain is by Sky Mesa and looks like he could be special if given the chance.

SHADWELL MILE-G1 KEE 4:00
1. Lord Admiral
2. Lovelace
3. Thorn Song
This race is surprisingly weak. The two to beat are the Europeans, Lord Admiral and Lovelace, who are coming out of two of Europe's most prestigious races. I expect Thorn Song to outlast a bouncing Rahy's Attourney. Also, I believe Shakis is overraced over the last few weeks and does not care for Keeneland's turf course. So, I believe the pace will be honest, if not fast, setting up for the late-running Euros that should go off at a decent price.

E.P. Taylor-G1 WO 4:00
1. Hostess
2. J'ray
3. Folk Opera
Sealy Hill runs for the final time in this race. It is too bad to see her go, but I am not here to feel sorry for a very unsubstantial loss. Hostess ran a nice, nice race last out at Saratoga, and I expect this race to be right up her alley. James Bond is still one of the best trainers at keeping a horse at his/her peak, and I will be rooting for her to defend America's honor in Canada's biggest turf race for females. J'ray is always there and should be there again, while Folk Opera takes a class drop after facing the best turf filly in the world in Zarkava in the Vermeille a few weeks ago. One of the better races of the weekend.

SUMMER-G3 WO 4:00
1. Skipadate
2. Grand Adventure
3. Star of David
Class wins when it comes to young horses and Casse has a good one in Skipadate. It is also really nice to finally see a Skip Away colt with some genuine ability. Frostad juveniles are always tough first-time-stakes horses, so I throw the well-bred Grand Adventure in there for the place. The ace up my sleeve is Star of David, a rare Asmussen colt who to be stabled at WO. I believe this colt will be ready for the jump in class and is from the ever-dangerous offspring of Bernstein.

CANADIAN INTERNATIONAL-G1 WO 4:00
1. Quijano
2. Doctor Dino
3. Champs Elysees
This is the time when Quijano gets his revenge... on everyone. Champs Elysees is better at shorter distances and will not have an answer to the top two's best races. Doctor Dino will be tough, but I cannot bet a horse who will probably go off around 4/5.

NEARCTIC-G1 WO 4:00
1. Quietly Mine
2. Hero's Reward
3. Hellvelyn
Clement has been gearing this colt toward a chance at revenge against the big turf sprinter, Hero's reward. I think this is the time that Gomez gets him there. Hero's Reward, as always, will be tough. A horse to watch is the 2nd-off-layoff Hellvelyn from McLaughlin's barn, and with smart jockey Bravo in the irons.

FRIZETTE-G1 BEL 4:43
1. Persistently
2. Miss Ocean City
3. Heavenly Vision
Persistently should have won the Matron, with a better ride. Today she should be a better filly and a tough customer. Miss Ocean City and Heavenly Vision both come from barns that have proven to be extremely tough in fall two year old races at Belmont, Zito and Baffert. Both are also at 10/1 or above, which is delicious.

CHAMPAGNE-G1 BEL 5:15
1. Brave Victory
2. Hello Broadway
3. Break Water Edison
Brave Victory has been super-impressive and I trust Zito if he brings him back off two weeks. Cribnote, I will throw out due to the blinkers. He will burn himself out. Instead I'll throw in Hello Broadway and Break Water Edison, two colts with futures. Break Water Edison is an impressive specimen who will go off at great odds, and I loved his race two back. I am also throwing out Vineyard Haven simply because I think he will finish fourth behind my top three. I am deathly afraid of Gone Astray, as I believe he will run much better in this race than the Futurity. But, in the end, we must decide our top three- and I cannot throw out the ones listed.

THOROUGHBRED CLUB OF AMERICA-G3 KEE 5:30
1. Wild Gams
2. Indyanne
3. Sugar Swirl
Wild Gams loves the track, the distance, and is due to run big. Indyanne will probably run very much the same as last time when she barely lost. Sugar Swirl is a classy, classy mare who will run her race- it just will not be enough to win.

INDIANA DERBY-G2 HOO 5:40
1. Pyro
2. Chris Got Even
3. Power Game
Despite the outside post, which I think will help, this is Pyro's race to win or lose. I think he's the horse to beat and Power Game will be right there, as well. Chris Got Even is my 'wild card,' because I think Zito has been taking his time with this colt who should give a good showing of himself at Hoosier.

SUNDAY

GREY-G3 WO 3:35
1. Dance Into Heaven
2. Southern Exchange
3. Bear's Conductor
When Sam-Son Farm enters a maiden in a race, it is not a rare feat for them to win. Dance Into Heaven is a good looking colt who should give a great account of his golden genes. Southern Exchange is bred to handle the distance, but after backing up at Del Mar at seven panels, I worry about his ability to handle it at this point in his career. Bear's Conductor should run well for Reade Baker, who is hot recently. He's by Congaree, whom I loved as a racehorse, and is bred well enough to be able to handle the polytrack. Stimulus Plan will be tough, but I worry about his endurance, so I had to throw him out.

BOURBON-G3 KEE 4:10
1. Driving Snow
2. Bittel Road
3. Giant Oak
I'm going to take a shot in the dark and throw Driving Snow on top in this race. Verglas is a very underrated stallion and this colt is the only true grass pedigree in the race. Bittel Road proved a force to be reckoned in the With Anticipation, but I believe the inside post will work against him. Giant Oak was my original pick, but I worry about his step up in class and an inside post. He will have to either show speed or worry about traffic. As with many juvenile turf races, it is a toss-up.

MAZARINE-G3 WO 4:34
1. Livin Lovin
2. Retraceable
3. Van Lear Rose
When Klesaris ships, he's dangerous. Dominguez will give this filly the best possible ride, as well. Retraceable is Casse's best hope (hence Husbands in the sattle) and Catherin Day Phillips, like her father, is great with developing young horses. I expect Van Lear Rose to be very tough in the straight.

SPINSTER-G1 KEE 5:10
1. Jibboom
2. Carriage Trail
3. Unbridled Belle
I am a registered member of the Jibboom fan club. She's beautiful, flashy, and loves synthetics. She runs just like her father, Mizzen Mast, and should be the horse to beat in this race. Carriage Trail is always tough and should be right there, while Unbridled Belle does not promise to be as affective on synthetic surfaces. Go Jibboom!

JEROME-G2 BEL 5:15
1. Harlem Rocker
2. Visionaire
3. Tale of Ekati
As many of you know, I am also a registered member of the Harlem Rocker fan club. I think he's in the top three sophomores, talent-wise, and is going to be a tough customer on Sunday. I look for him to outsprint Visionaire after getting the jump on him, and close down Cool Coal Man and Tale of Ekati. Da Tara chose a bad path by running here, when Zito (who usually is great with picking spots) should have aimed him toward the Breeders' Cup Endurance at his beloved twelve furlongs.

Flying Comments

2008-09-21T18:34:00.000-07:00

When horses run like Commentator, we are reminded of how well an animal can perform when given the time to develop. He may not show the bald speed that he used to, but Commentator definitely runs like a horse with the balance of maturity and innate pace. For a horse who, in human years, is a 42+ year old running against 24+ year olds, he showed us brilliance can flourish with patience. As far as his last two wins, including Saturday's Mass 'Cap romp, he has proven that he may possibly be a Classic contender, able to keep his brilliant pace over a distance of ground. In this, the synthetics may help him get the extra furlong.

On the other side of the age spectrum, it was fantastic to see my highly touted Charitable Man win like a more mature horse in the Futurity last weekend at Belmont. He runs a lot like his father, Lemon Drop Kid, and looks to be in great hands. Unlike most people, I like the jump into two turns from a seven-furlong race- but only if the horse's pedigree screams distance. Being by a Belmont Stakes winning sire, out of a Halo/Seeking the Gold cross on his damside- he should have no issues negotiating 8.5 furlongs.

A horse to watch out for next time he runs is runner up, Flying Pegasus. This colt is by Fusaichi Pegasus out of multiple stakes winner (4 of her 5 wins were stakes, in 13 starts), Lilly Capote. Born in 1992, this filly had the misfortune of being among the throng of great fillies of that year (with the two best being in the same barn with her: Serena's Song and Flanders). Watch as Lilly Capote gives a great showing of herself in what would become an epic race. This filly, of great scope, finally meshed well with a stallion when she produced Flying Pegasus, who looks like he has a huge future.

The Fantastic Fourteen: Juveniles

1. Flying Pegasus Can rate and is bred to be a brilliant young horse.
2. Charitable Man Simply the fastest numbers and got the better of #1 when drafting off his pace.
3. Regal Ransom This once-raced colt ran a big number with bulldog-like tenacity. Will also LOVE synthetics.
4. Azul Leon If he is healthy, he is by far the best of the west.
5. Midshipman It's a shame for Baffert to lose one; going to be difficult to beat around two turns in the Norfolk.
6. Cribnote His debut and impressive botched race in the Hopeful make you think that he (though bred to be a miler) could be a really special type.
7. Coronet of a Baron Always there, with natural speed, and tough to beat- but he's been beaten by a superior animal in his last two.
8. Run Away and Hide A crafty type with a push-button style that could stretch out beyond a mile if trained correctly.
9. Brave Victory This huge animal lopes along but runs impressively in each race. He was second to Regal Ransom and then came back yesterday (9/20) to win impressively over 7 panels at Belmont.
10. Terrain Had his race completely taken away twice in the Arlington-Washington Futurity, and deserved the win. He has fast numbers and is from the family of Unbridled with talented juvenile Sky Mesa on top. Should improve around two turns and can run on anything.
11. Break Water Edison His last race was back too soon, and that was evident in his performance, but it will help him next out around two turns. Watch out for this son of the ever-improving Lemon Drop Kid.
12. Vineyard Haven Ran a slow number and had everything his way. He has two things going for him: Frankel as his trainer and he is an absolutely gorgeous gray/roan.
13. Keep Thinking This is the best-bred two year old I have seen, by A.P. Indy out of Denebola (French classic winner) who was shuffled back and swept past all but one when second behind Royal Vindication (who barely didn't make the list) this week at Belmont. He will be heard from soon.
14. Munnings This expensive colt ran well despite a dwelt start in the Hopeful. Pletcher will get the best out of him, but I'm not yet convinced that optimum will be able to compete with the top five here.

Happy Racing everyone.

Busy Business

2008-08-26T16:08:00.000-07:00

This past weekend was a great time to remind myself why I do not bet, but am simply a pedigree consultant. Visionaire made me look like a genius, while Valbenny defiled everything I call projection. A boost by Go Between was nice, despite being second-choice.

In any case, loyal readers, I am currently reviewing the Keeneland September Yearling Sale Catalogue, and will have a full report soon. Alas, evaluating and organizing 5500 spreadsheets that represent animals is no quick task, but I am faster than most. Stay posted for a full pedigree-based review of the biggest sale in the world.

In the meantime, we have a very exciting week coming up with Curlin running at the Spa, and Benny the Bull trying to seal the Sprint Division with a win in the Forego. We also have the babies performing in the first big races for juveniles, the Spinaway and Hopeful. Hooray Saratoga!

Travers Weekend '08 - Random Thoughts

2008-08-21T01:53:00.000-07:00

Some exciting races this weekend :

Do not forget about Valbenny in the Ballston Spa, on Thursday. She is 5/1 on the morning line, which makes me think she may go off around 8 or 10/1. They are saying that the turf course is drying out after some rain, but I do not trust that at all, and know for sure that Wait a While, the big favorite, needs a concrete course to be happy.

Out at Del Mar (in the Pacific Classic on Sunday), I look for Go Between to finally get his grade 1 on dirt. Mast Track and Awesome Gem complete my trifecta (though we all know I am not a huge wagerer). As far as Well Armed, I will take a risk and throw him out. Student Council will be tough coming at the end, especially with a trainer who trains for consistency, Asmussen. Despite this, I do not think he will beat the aforementioned animals.

The Travers is actually looking like a race full of good horses who can run just as fast as Big Brown, if they have developed accordingly. Mambo in Seattle has run 3 lengths slower (104 Beyer) than Big Brown (110 Beyer in Derby, 107 Beyer in Haskell) numbers wise, and Harlem Rocker (106 Beyer in Withers) 2 lengths. I really wanted to see You and I Forever in the race, but Mott pulled him out. He ran like a horse on the brink of a big race last out. I am throwing out Pyro, as I do not like him at 10 furlongs (he is bred to be a miler) and keeping Mambo In Seattle, Harlem Rocker, Macho Again, and Cool Coal Man as main threats. I do not think Zito would run the latter unless he was improving. He was too far back last out on a speed-favoring course in the Haskell. Look for him to stalk and pounce. All in all, if they are all lined up adjacently at the 3/16th pole, no one can out-kick Harlem Rocker, not even Pyro. The big question with him is if he can run 10 furlongs. Winning in the 9.5 furlong Prince of Whales makes one think he can, but that was a very easy race. The way he runs, I have to think he can make the distance. He lopes around, places himself easily, and then moves up and sprints home. His second dam, Zee Lady, had some fantastic speed at two, while Lit de Justice (grandsire) is a 3/4 brother to two middle distance horses, including the brilliant Commander Collins. Harlem Rocker is bred to have two things: a gray coat and a fantastic closing turn of foot with Lit de Justice, Macho Uno, El Gran Senor, and Blushing Groom in his first three generations.

Also, if there is a time to throw $50 on a show stopper, it is Tale of Ekati. He is not bred for the distance, but he's trained by a big-race master, ridden by the best jockey in racing (Prado), and is a grinder-type that usually does well at Saratoga. I would not be surprised to see him at huge odds running down a fast pace and tiring horses. His Morning Line is 20/1, which is HUGE considering he is a New York Grade 1 winner going nine furlongs.

If Spring Waltz goes to the Pitcher (Monmouth, 8.5 furlongs: a bad idea) instead of the Personal Ensign (Saratoga, 10 furlongs, right up her alley), I LOVE Unbridled Belle against heavy favorite, Ginger Punch. Unbridled Belle is a true 10 furlong filly who can run big numbers, while I doubt Ginger Punch's endurance. Nappelon, her dam, was not one of great endurance. She was a talented sprinter who peaked at seven furlongs. She was also by a sprinter (Bold Revenue), with the speedy Rambunctious on her damside. I think Nappelon gives Ginger Punch her great speed and maneuverability, while sire Awesome Again gives her some classic prowess.

Speaking of the Distaffers, do not be surprised if Bruce Headley takes Magnificence after the Rancho Bernadino (which she should win) and ups her two furlongs in the G1 Lady's Secret in September. I think this filly is meant for 2 turns and may be top three in the country doing so. She's a big shot for the Breeders' Cup Distaff. Oh, I am sorry: Lady's Classic (which is stupid).

In the King's Bishop, I really would like to see Visionaire run a big comeback race. He is a very affective sprinter/closer who should be able to wear down a speed duel that is likely to develop. If the speed is valid (:21, :44), he has a huge chance and should be followed closely by Golden Spikes (brilliantly bred Seeking the Gold colt out of an A.P. Indy half sister to King's Bishop winner Forestry) and Kodiac Kowboy, who loves the surface and stalks well. If the pace does not develop, J Be K is going to sit off Desert Key, run him down, and they will finish 1-2.

There are a few other great races, but I will not bore you too much.

Fun weekend.

The Lemon Drop Renaissance

2008-08-18T01:30:00.000-07:00

Watching the Babies...

So far the two most impressive two year olds I have seen just so happen to be by the same sire: Lemon Drop Kid. Perhaps it is a bit of a rebirth for the impeccably bred son of Kingmambo, perhaps it is a lucky streak- in any case, it proves that he can at least produce a good, young, dirt horse like he was.

Flashback: As a 16-year-old kid in 1998, I saw Lemon Drop Kid break his maiden in a six furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga. He was superbly impressive in the paddock, as well as the race itself- and I always remember him looking the part of a good horse. He obviously went on to be a Grade 1 winner for three consecutive years (2-4), and now he has a couple of runners who could be anything.

1.) Break Water Edison, named after a hotel/resort in South Beach Miami, FL, is out of the Storm Creek stakes winning mare August Storm, who is inbred uniquely to Crimson Satan- who puts an immense amount of sprinter speed in an animal, as well as the endurance-enhancing stallions Secretariat, Olden Times, and Northern Dancer. The horse, himself, really put on a show first time out at Belmont, then came back to run very greenly, but basically a winning race in the Saratoga Special. He made a huge run at the leader, ran awkwardly down the stretch, and remains a big shot to win his next race. The best thing I saw, though, is that he ran impressively from off the pace after winning wire-to-wire in his debut. As impressive as he was, he is easily the #2 most impressive two year old as of this very moment. That title belongs to his paternal half brother...

2.) Charitable Man. This colt looked like a really special colt from the moment the gates opened on his debut. He earned a 97 Beyer Speed Figure and never was bothered. He ran like a horse never challenged, with a huge stride, and who is begging to be moved up in distance. He looks like a spitting image of his sire, who could run anywhere on the track, and has a movement to him that excites me. His bloodlines are deceptively great, with fantastic race mares through and through. His dam, by classic stallion Saint Ballado, had a short-lived career but hails from the prestigious Virginia Edward P. Evans breeding stock. His third (Fortunate Facts), fourth (Bald Facts), and fifth (Too Bald) dams were either great race mares or wonderful dams. This immediate family includes General Royal, Exceller, Baldski, American Standard, Capote and Vaguely Hidden. On top of this we have the infused sire genes of Seeking the Gold (classic two turn ability), In Reality (speed), Sir Ivor (endurance and turf prowess), Halo (turf & dirt endurance) and Buckpasser (blatant endurance). When you stack all of that below Lemon Drop Kid, which inbreeds him to Mr. Prospector (SPEED), Buckpasser (see above), and Sir Gaylord (half brother to Secretariat who sired Sir Ivor, and was the favorite for the 1962 Kentucky Derby before an injury deprived him of said opportunity) you have a really interesting array of genes.

Watch out for this horse! He is owned by W.K. Warren, of Saint Liam fame, who is advised by Mark Reid (Sr. & Jr.), some of the best advisers in racing and general horseflesh. He is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, who is very good with young horses and allowing them to develop. Will he eventually make it to the Breeders' Cup and perform well over a synthetic surface? The former we can never know until post time October 26, but I do believe with Kingmambo, Nureyev, and Halo in his blood, he will have no problem handling something with a bit of similarity to turf.

Very Exciting.

Titanic Thoughts

2008-08-08T16:33:00.000-07:00

Big Brown vs. Curlin : The 2 Current Titans in American Racing

It was obvious that Big Brown needed the race (The Haskell), but he definitely didn't prove much in the process. I concede that Coal Play (2nd) is highly underrated and was on the path to run a big race, but he is not Harlem Rocker (Prince of Whales winner) or You and I Forever (whom I believe are the two brightest up and coming stars in the sophomore crop) by any means. Thoughts of comparing Curlin to Big Brown are ludicrous until the latter gets a gut check that is not a comeback race. He's about three lengths behind the champion in speed, and that is at merely nine furlongs.

Curlin should stay off the turf: definitely a good call. He's simply useful and was quite lucky Red Rocks was there to put him in this place (in last month's Man o' War Stakes). Otherwise, Curlin's connections would be riding high off a 'better than it looked' 104-Beyer winning race over Better Talk Now, heading to have his hind quarters handed to him by Soldier of Fortune and Duke of Marmalade in the Arc.

2008 Saratoga Selected Yearlings

2008-08-06T01:40:00.000-07:00

Evaluating the Pedigrees of the 1st Major Yearling Sale of 2008

The Top 10

10.) Hip 37
B.c. (Jan) Dixie Union-Rare Gift (Unbridled's Song)
This colt is by Dixie Union, who is getting better and better as a sire, is out of a daughter of Unbridled's Song and Rare Blend, a talented graded stakes winner of the Black-Eyed Susan. Rare Gift, herself, won the Ladies Handicap and finished third in the Black-Eyed Susan. She will add some size and endurance to the sprint-laden, smallish tendencies of the Dixie Union colts.
9.) Hip 72
Dkb/Br.f. (Mar) Gone West-Supah Jackie (Mecke)
This filly is by Gone West, who has recently made a comeback as a hot sire, while being out of a full sister to fantastic miler Supah Blitz. Mecke was a full brother to the classy champion Beautiful Pleasure (who went on to produce Dr. Pleasure), and this filly's granddam, Boots 'n Jackie, placed in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile FIllies while running a winning race (passing Eliza 5 strides after the wire). This is a filly who will run well early and have a strong closing kick.
8.) Hip 174
Gr.c. (Feb) Unbridled's Song-Home Court (Storm Cat)
Though his fillies are usually slightly superior to his colts, Unbridled's Song crosses very well with Storm Cat mares, especially those from strong female families. This particular colt is a grandson of the great Jewel Princess, who ran some of the fastest Beyer Speed Figures of any filly since their advent. She twice handed Serena's Song her hind quarters with style, and has had limited opportunity to produce her equal. Perhaps Home Court, her daughter, can do that for her... at least in male form.
7.) Hip 31
B.c. (Mar) A.P. Indy-Pyramid Lake (Broad Brush)
This colt just screams classic distance ability and a hell of a closing kick with Peinture Bleue as granddam, the dam of one of the fastest turf closers of our time, Peintre Celebre. Pyramid Lake has produced two winners from two starters, and this colt topped the first day of the sale for a reason.
6.) Hip 41
Ch.f. (Jan) Songandaprayer-Restless Cat (Storm Cat)
This January filly should come out firing, being by a speedy sire out of a full sister to Hennessy. Enough said.
5.) Hip 104
Dkb/Br.f. (Apr) Medaglia d'Oro-Atlantic Ocean (Stormy Atlantic)
If this filly isn't the size of a dump truck, it will be very surprising. Her dam was an extremely well bred daughter of the now popular Stormy Atlantic out of a Seattle Slew/Best Turn/Tom Rolfe dam pattern. Medaglia d'Oro has produced some early runners with an obvious future over a route of ground. This filly is the second foal of Atlantic Ocean, who ran on everything and could produce the same- but, I project a turf specialist who will be useful on the dirt and synthetics.
4.) Hip 90
Ch.c. (Feb) Songandaprayer-What a Knight (Tough Knight)
Bob Baffert will tell you that What a Song, the full brother to this colt, was a standout undefeated juvenile who tragically died before being able to show his brilliance. If this colt has half that colt's brilliance he will be worth the buy.
3.) Hip 190
Ch.c. (Feb) Tiznow-Life's a Dance (Gone West)
This is probably the most fashionable pedigree in the entire sale, being by a fresh and successful stallion of classic tendency, out of a family that is second to none. Both of this colt's siblings have been gelded, which is cause for alarm and drops him from the #1 spot to this. Despite that, a colt of this pedigree is an asset to any stable.
2.) Hip 23
B.c. (Feb) Tale of the Cat-Piedras Negras (Unbridled)
I believe this colt's genetic 3/4 sister, La Traviata, is one of the most brilliant filly sprinters we have seen in a few years. I believe she will eventually prove herself to be even better when given the opportunity, and this colt has the genetic make-up to do the same.
1.) Hip 179
Ch.f. (Feb) Ghostzapper-Incinerate (Groovy)
Ghostzapper ran 128, 124, and 123 consecutive Beyer Speed Figures. Groovy, this filly's grandsire, ran 131 and 133 speed figures (the highest ever) in seven furlong races. Incinerate was a great miler of the famous Hobeau farm family who has produced six winners from as many starters- including In the Gold and High Blitz, whose sires (Golden Missile and Lucky Lionel) will not be able to hold a candle to the projected success of the brilliant Ghostzapper. I expect big things.

(Just a taste of the wisdom Adolphson Thoroughbred Consulting has to offer.)

An Official Hello

2008-08-05T02:23:00.000-07:00

Born Michael H. Adolphson, Jr. in Baltimore, MD, I spent the majority of my childhood running up and down the rails at Pimlico and Laurel racecourses. Before being able to read a novel's paragraph, I could decipher the spreadsheet-style past performances of the Daily Racing Form, and pick consequential winners on a regular basis.

From then, it was only a matter of time until the trends of the racing industry revealed themselves, and my perfectionist mentality soaked them up like a sponge. The saturation has never ceased, and over twenty years later I have the knowledge base of someone twice my senior, with the ambition and diligence of young upstart.

A devout knowledge of pedigrees, trainers' patterns, jockey strengths/weaknesses, racetrack biases and stallion statistics have combined with an unmatched zeal to produce an eye for the future of racing.

Prodigy: a young person endowed with exceptional qualities or abilities.

Change: the act or instance of making or becoming different.

Change is due in the world of horse racing. For those just coming into the industry, and those centuries invested, I know one sure thing in my life: I was born to love, pursue, and promote this industry. It is my passion and future- let me know what I can do for yours.

ADOLPHSON THOROUGHBRED CONSULTING
A Prodigy in Pedigree Assessment