Wednesday, September 9, 2009

breeders' cup analysis/top 10 (JUVENILE)

It's the first 10 days of September... you know what that means?! Yes, it's BC Juvenile crazy time!

Let us first say that Dublin was good but not impressive. The same can be said for Lookin' at Lucky on the West Coast. The big factors here, though, are they are trained by horsemen who are being slyly conservative with their charges. Aikenite and Aspire were impressive, but took advantage of a hot pace.
Backtalk, the previously undefeated winner of two graded stakes, was impressive in defeat. As he is a certified grinder who never changed leads in the stretch, he ran on to finish well, considering that. One has to wonder if he may be a better horse closer to the pace with his grinding style. I think, around two turns, you will see him closer to the pace. Had he changed leads, I believe he would have easily secured second, despite his 5-wide trip from the outside post. Still none of these colts are in my top three juveniles of the moment.
Believe it or not, the three I place first have yet to go over 6.5 furlongs, but I believe they will progress quickly. My rankings (with links to pedigrees and sire/damsire lines):

1. Sidney's Candy (Candy Ride - Storm Cat)
So impressive in his last two races. SO impressive. And, you know my adoration of all Candy Rides... especially those whose granddam was the brilliant and sturdy Exchange.
2. General Maximus (Freud - Good and Tough)
My favorite debut of the year (July 5f Belmont). Screamed speed and distance abilities. 93 Beyer.
3. Discreetly Mine (Mineshaft - Private Account)
Bred to be something special (half to Discreet Cat). Watch him next out in the Futurity. The best bet to upset D'Funnybone.
4. Dublin (Afleet Alex - Storm Bird)
Knows how to win and has a trainer hungry for a comeback. Best bred of these.
5. Lookin' at Lucky (Smart Strike - Belong to Me)
Knows how to win, already. Reminds me of so many other Baffert slightly-above-pars.
6. Backtalk (Smarty Jones - Affirmed)
Grinder who may be better on synthetic, or equally as good (much like his half sister Bsharpsonata).
7. Bulldogger (Dixie Union - Tricky Creek)
Speedy Baffert charge who is bred to be a miler. May be a good colt up to 8.5F.
8. Aspire (Tale of the Cat - Southern Halo)
A great effort in his second start. Pletcher is always dangerous.
9. Liston (Storm Cat - Metfield)
Look for a big rebound next time out for this half brother to super-impressive Country Star, out of a Kentucky Oaks runner-up (also an Ashland-G1 winner).
10. D'Funnybone (D'Wildcat - Woodman)
Looks like a true miler with a sprinter on top of a 10f bred (Woodman/Roberto) mare. With Roberto and Lyphard in there, he is bred to adore the synthetic. May be able to stretch on there, as well. Watch out for him next out. Should go to CA instead of the Futurity (for both the distance and to avoid Discreetly Mine), but I doubt he will.

Saturday, September 5, 2009

woodward '09

3. Rachel Alexandria 112

6. Asiatic Boy 108

4. Macho Again 107

5. It's a Bird 106

2. Bullsbay 105

7. Past the Point 104

1a. Cool Coal Man 103

1. Da Tara 98

I expect Rachel to bounce slightly out of that brilliant win, last out. Still, she will be nearly impossible to beat if she gets into a nice stalking rhythm. The big danger is Asiatic Boy. He has proven to be a ridiculously talented individual who can stalk and burst away from a field. His UAE Derby win was more than impressive, and he looks to win if she does not. Macho Again and It's a Bird have been aimed for this race, but I think Macho Again is the better bet, being that he is second-race-off-layoff. Bullsbay could repeat his last race and win or place second in this race, but I doubt it. I think he likes the track, but is in a much tougher race this time. Past the Point is now, apparently, a closer. This will help him today, but I have yet to see him beat anyone that wasn't easy to outrun or run down. Da Tara and Cool Coal Man are within a couple lengths of these on their best days, but I doubt they will be able to repeat their best feats here.

forego '09

5. Riley Tucker 106

2. Kodiak Kowboy 106

4. Peace Chant 103

6. Gold Trippi 102

1. Pyro 101

7. Driven by Success 99

10. My Pal Charlie 98

12. Keep Laughing 97

11. True Quality 96

9. Law Enforcement 95

8. Multitude 93

3. Ready's Echo 91

My Pal Charlie is a better 8-9 furlong horse. He will be tough, but is still in over his head. In this race, with it being this deep, I must say that the two horses that stick out to me are Kodiak Kowboy and Riley Tucker. True, I think Peace Chant, Gold Trippi and Pyro will be right there, but the two who seem to be perfectly suited to this race are the aforementioned. Of the two, Riley Tucker is a very hot longshot. Trained by my favorite trainer, Baffert, and ridden by my favorite jockey, Prado, it is hard to go against him. Peace Chant is a tough one, as we do not know, YET, how good he is. He has had too many physical issues to show it. O'Neill has proven he can win Saratoga races (see: Maryfield), which helps his cause. He is the best-bred sprinter in the field, by brilliant dual-surface miler War Chant, out of champion sprinter Safely Kept. What a race!

Adolphson Thoroughbred Consulting

Washington, D.C.