Wednesday, September 9, 2009
breeders' cup analysis/top 10 (JUVENILE)
Saturday, September 5, 2009
woodward '09
3. Rachel Alexandria 112
6. Asiatic Boy 108
4. Macho Again 107
5. It's a Bird 106
2. Bullsbay 105
7. Past the Point 104
1a. Cool Coal Man 103
1. Da Tara 98
I expect Rachel to bounce slightly out of that brilliant win, last out. Still, she will be nearly impossible to beat if she gets into a nice stalking rhythm. The big danger is Asiatic Boy. He has proven to be a ridiculously talented individual who can stalk and burst away from a field. His UAE Derby win was more than impressive, and he looks to win if she does not. Macho Again and It's a Bird have been aimed for this race, but I think Macho Again is the better bet, being that he is second-race-off-layoff. Bullsbay could repeat his last race and win or place second in this race, but I doubt it. I think he likes the track, but is in a much tougher race this time. Past the Point is now, apparently, a closer. This will help him today, but I have yet to see him beat anyone that wasn't easy to outrun or run down. Da Tara and Cool Coal Man are within a couple lengths of these on their best days, but I doubt they will be able to repeat their best feats here.
forego '09
5. Riley Tucker 106
2. Kodiak Kowboy 106
4. Peace Chant 103
6. Gold Trippi 102
1. Pyro 101
7. Driven by Success 99
10. My Pal Charlie 98
12. Keep Laughing 97
11. True Quality 96
9. Law Enforcement 95
8. Multitude 93
3. Ready's Echo 91
My Pal Charlie is a better 8-9 furlong horse. He will be tough, but is still in over his head. In this race, with it being this deep, I must say that the two horses that stick out to me are Kodiak Kowboy and Riley Tucker. True, I think Peace Chant, Gold Trippi and Pyro will be right there, but the two who seem to be perfectly suited to this race are the aforementioned. Of the two, Riley Tucker is a very hot longshot. Trained by my favorite trainer, Baffert, and ridden by my favorite jockey, Prado, it is hard to go against him. Peace Chant is a tough one, as we do not know, YET, how good he is. He has had too many physical issues to show it. O'Neill has proven he can win Saratoga races (see: Maryfield), which helps his cause. He is the best-bred sprinter in the field, by brilliant dual-surface miler War Chant, out of champion sprinter Safely Kept. What a race!
Adolphson Thoroughbred Consulting
Washington, D.C.
MHAdolphson@Gmail.com
www.AdolphsonTC.com
202.716.7046
www.AdolphsonTC.com
202.716.7046