Monday, October 19, 2009

Thursday, October 15, 2009

BC Marathon rankings

1. Mastery 110

The horse to beat. Godolphin has been pointing him to this.

2. Septimus 106

Has been off for a while, but Ballydoyle is strong off a layoff.

3. Nite Light 105

If he gets an easy lead, he loves 14f. Looked great in last two.

4. Father Time 104

Has the closing kick and classy connection to contend.

5. Muhannak 102

Has apparently lost more than a step.

6. Alaazo 101

Love how he's coming into this race, and the distance is his strength.

7. Unusual Suspect 101

A return to his Cougar II win makes him tough. 14f a big question.

8. Eldaafer 100

Amazing bloodlines and a great horse, but has peaked this year.

9. Alcomo 99

On his best day, and if he adapts to the surface, he make the board.

10. Free Fighter 99

Could be a player, but needs to answer a lot of questions.

11. Rising Moon 96

A shipping Dick Dutrow is always tough, but he is merely ordinary.

12. Soldier's Dancer 95

Interesting play if he runs, but he is a step below the best.

13. Bold Chieftain 94

The distance is a question, despite great 9f Cal-Cup win.

14. Cloudy's Knight 102

With his breeding, the Pro-Ride should be perfect, but is running at KEE.

15. Temple City 93

In over his head. But, only slightly.

BC Mile rankings

1. Goldikova 112
Extremely tough. Enough said.
2. Zacinto 110
Moving quickly in the right direction.
3. Ferneley 109
The most overlooked horse here. The best of the Americans.
4. Delegator 108
This has been his focus, and he had a nice break in the Summer.
5. Sight Winner 107
If they bring him, his HK Mile form is good enough to make top 3.
6. Justenuffhumor 106
On a hard surface, he will return to his brilliance- which is almost good enough.
7. Varenar 108
The Foret race was impressive.
8. Whatsthescript 106
He is classy and loves the course. He will be coming late and peaking here.
9. Cowboy Cal 105
Pace scenario is against him, and his finish isn't Euro-worthy, but he's consistent.
10. Sterwins 104.5
Loved his last two closing races.
11. Diamondrella 104
Has an impressive closing punch and looks like she will improve off her win.
12. Karelian 103.5
Excellent in the soft, but doubt he can do it on the hard going with these.
13. Court Vision 103
Looked really good, but is, as always, a step below the best.
14. Jungle Wave 102
If he doesn't go into the Turf Sprint, he is a classy, dangerous horse.
15. Battle of Hastings 101.5
Ultra-consistent, hard-turf loving type who will be trying.
16. Sweet Hearth 100.5
Not as impressive to me as her stablemate.
17. Mr. Sidney 100
He is consistent at this distance, and impeccably bred (for dirt), but is still slow.
18. Free Fighter 99
Good horse. Not good enough.
19. Cosmonaut 98
Always tough in a big race, but past his prime.
20. Courageous Cat 97
The horse to watch out for next year in this division (or on dirt).
21. Take the Points 96
Should stick with his division until he's fast enough for these.
22. Straight Story 95
Ditto.

Friday, October 9, 2009

Oak Tree Rantings


Oak Tree is a well-oiled machine, it seems. After a few weeks here, I have come to notice that it is a boutique meet at a non-boutique track. Santa Anita, at first impression, is one of the proverbial palaces of sports. It, unlike Keeneland or many east coast tracks, is completely designed for the spectator. Despite all the amenities and high-end availabilities, this track has no air of elitism. Being in the L.A. area, on top of that, makes it even more impressive.
To follow my adventures in L.A., in photos, CLICK HERE!

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

BC Classic rankings

Rank Horse ASP Comment

1. Rip Van Winkle 115

It scares me how confident O'Brien is in this one.

2. Sea the Stars 115

The class.

3. Quality Road 113

Love him on the synthetic, pedigree-wise.

4. Zenyatta 112.5

Will be coming.

5. Mastercraftsman 112

Slight edge, speed and pedigree-wise over the big favorite.

6. Summer Bird 111

Always trying; a cut below the top 5.

7. Richard's Kid 110

Improving and in the right barn.

8. Rail Trip 110

If he returns to his summer speed, he's tough.

9. Tiago 110

Will. Run. Well.

10. Einstein 109

Fresh and dangerous off a 9 week break.

11. Furthest Land 109

Loved his race and his # in the last one.

12. Gio Ponti 108

Good on Pro-Ride; knows how to win; loves 10f.

13. Colonel John 108

Better on turf.

14. Gone Astray 108

Sneaky good runner; getting better.

15. Mine That Bird 107

Great closing kick may love Pro-Ride

16. Parading 106.5

Always there; better at 9 than 10f.

17. Chocolate Candy 106.5

A cut below the best.

18. Misremembered 106

Getting better, but is probably better suited to the Dirt Mile.

19. Regal Ransom 105

Could set the pace and hang on for a piece of it.

20. Tres Borrachos 105

I could actually repeat the above sentence for this one, too.

21. Awesome Gem 102

Returning to great form; is better in slop than synthetics.

22. Nite Light 104.5

Loved his last race in the slop at Hawthorne.

23. Bullsbay 104

Off an injury; could be a nice wild card.

24. Macho Again 104

Looks to have peaked.

25. It's a Bird 104

Classy, but too many question marks.

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

breeders' cup analysis/top 10 (JUVENILE)

It's the first 10 days of September... you know what that means?! Yes, it's BC Juvenile crazy time!

Let us first say that Dublin was good but not impressive. The same can be said for Lookin' at Lucky on the West Coast. The big factors here, though, are they are trained by horsemen who are being slyly conservative with their charges. Aikenite and Aspire were impressive, but took advantage of a hot pace.
Backtalk, the previously undefeated winner of two graded stakes, was impressive in defeat. As he is a certified grinder who never changed leads in the stretch, he ran on to finish well, considering that. One has to wonder if he may be a better horse closer to the pace with his grinding style. I think, around two turns, you will see him closer to the pace. Had he changed leads, I believe he would have easily secured second, despite his 5-wide trip from the outside post. Still none of these colts are in my top three juveniles of the moment.
Believe it or not, the three I place first have yet to go over 6.5 furlongs, but I believe they will progress quickly. My rankings (with links to pedigrees and sire/damsire lines):

1. Sidney's Candy (Candy Ride - Storm Cat)
So impressive in his last two races. SO impressive. And, you know my adoration of all Candy Rides... especially those whose granddam was the brilliant and sturdy Exchange.
2. General Maximus (Freud - Good and Tough)
My favorite debut of the year (July 5f Belmont). Screamed speed and distance abilities. 93 Beyer.
3. Discreetly Mine (Mineshaft - Private Account)
Bred to be something special (half to Discreet Cat). Watch him next out in the Futurity. The best bet to upset D'Funnybone.
4. Dublin (Afleet Alex - Storm Bird)
Knows how to win and has a trainer hungry for a comeback. Best bred of these.
5. Lookin' at Lucky (Smart Strike - Belong to Me)
Knows how to win, already. Reminds me of so many other Baffert slightly-above-pars.
6. Backtalk (Smarty Jones - Affirmed)
Grinder who may be better on synthetic, or equally as good (much like his half sister Bsharpsonata).
7. Bulldogger (Dixie Union - Tricky Creek)
Speedy Baffert charge who is bred to be a miler. May be a good colt up to 8.5F.
8. Aspire (Tale of the Cat - Southern Halo)
A great effort in his second start. Pletcher is always dangerous.
9. Liston (Storm Cat - Metfield)
Look for a big rebound next time out for this half brother to super-impressive Country Star, out of a Kentucky Oaks runner-up (also an Ashland-G1 winner).
10. D'Funnybone (D'Wildcat - Woodman)
Looks like a true miler with a sprinter on top of a 10f bred (Woodman/Roberto) mare. With Roberto and Lyphard in there, he is bred to adore the synthetic. May be able to stretch on there, as well. Watch out for him next out. Should go to CA instead of the Futurity (for both the distance and to avoid Discreetly Mine), but I doubt he will.

Saturday, September 5, 2009

woodward '09


3. Rachel Alexandria 112

6. Asiatic Boy 108

4. Macho Again 107

5. It's a Bird 106

2. Bullsbay 105

7. Past the Point 104

1a. Cool Coal Man 103

1. Da Tara 98



I expect Rachel to bounce slightly out of that brilliant win, last out. Still, she will be nearly impossible to beat if she gets into a nice stalking rhythm. The big danger is Asiatic Boy. He has proven to be a ridiculously talented individual who can stalk and burst away from a field. His UAE Derby win was more than impressive, and he looks to win if she does not. Macho Again and It's a Bird have been aimed for this race, but I think Macho Again is the better bet, being that he is second-race-off-layoff. Bullsbay could repeat his last race and win or place second in this race, but I doubt it. I think he likes the track, but is in a much tougher race this time. Past the Point is now, apparently, a closer. This will help him today, but I have yet to see him beat anyone that wasn't easy to outrun or run down. Da Tara and Cool Coal Man are within a couple lengths of these on their best days, but I doubt they will be able to repeat their best feats here.

forego '09


5. Riley Tucker 106

2. Kodiak Kowboy 106

4. Peace Chant 103

6. Gold Trippi 102

1. Pyro 101

7. Driven by Success 99

10. My Pal Charlie 98

12. Keep Laughing 97

11. True Quality 96

9. Law Enforcement 95

8. Multitude 93

3. Ready's Echo 91


My Pal Charlie is a better 8-9 furlong horse. He will be tough, but is still in over his head. In this race, with it being this deep, I must say that the two horses that stick out to me are Kodiak Kowboy and Riley Tucker. True, I think Peace Chant, Gold Trippi and Pyro will be right there, but the two who seem to be perfectly suited to this race are the aforementioned. Of the two, Riley Tucker is a very hot longshot. Trained by my favorite trainer, Baffert, and ridden by my favorite jockey, Prado, it is hard to go against him. Peace Chant is a tough one, as we do not know, YET, how good he is. He has had too many physical issues to show it. O'Neill has proven he can win Saratoga races (see: Maryfield), which helps his cause. He is the best-bred sprinter in the field, by brilliant dual-surface miler War Chant, out of champion sprinter Safely Kept. What a race!

Friday, August 28, 2009

Wilkes' day to Shine - picks for Travers Day

Race 2:

Much Rejoicing, though not trained by someone known for his juveniles, is a brilliantly bred filly by Distorted Humor, out of Soaring Softly, a champion turf mare (who had a decent dirt pedigree).


Race 3:

#1, Great Crusade, if he drops back and makes one run, could prove a great bet at 20-1.  His mother, Victory USA, was a really talented runner.  His father, Awesome Again, is known as a late developing sire.  #2, Eagle Strike, comes from one of the best families in the country.  He is by the Capote mare, True Flare, who has produced a great deal of dirt stakes winners.  He is the horse to beat.  


Race 4 , Lure Stakes:

If it stays on the turf, and is wet, #9 is the horse to beat.  He's trained by Saratoga danger, Mott, and won last out under these same conditions when it was yielding.  Leparoux is the last piece that makes me look past everyone else.


Race 6:

If it goes off the turf, #3 The Roundhouse is the horse to beat.  He has never had a chance to go 9 furlongs (which is what it'll be on the dirt), and is bred to love it.


Race 7 , Victory Ride-G3:

1. Bold Union 94

7. Selva 92

8. Sara Louise 91

4. Sky Haven 90

6. Step Out Smartly 89

3. Reforestation 88

5. Juliet's Spirit 87

1a. All of Her Twist 86

2. Trix in the City 84


Race 8:

One to watch is #8 Moonlark, who is part of that Thoroughbred Legends Racing experiment.  By Gone West, out of a Phone Trick mare, he may be a rare first-out winner from Lukas.  His horses from the TLRStable have been firing, like Dublin.  Phone Trick being on the damside is a real kicker for me.  Plus the mare, Laptop, was a good one.  Otherwise, #1 Bulldogger is the horse to beat, and #4 Kajiwara is right behind him.


Race 9 Ballston Spa Hcp:

1. Rutherienne 100

7. Cocoa Beach 99

2. My Princess Jess 97

3. Closeout 96

6. Captain's Lover 96

8. Salve Germania 94

5. Teamgeist 91

4. Dyna's Lassie 90


I hope Rutherienne, still one of my favorites, destroys this field... and she just might if she has a good ride and clean trip.


Race 10 Ballerina:

4. Indian Blessing 105

3. Tar Heel Mom 98

1. Music Note 97

2. Informed Decision 97

5. Modification 93

6. P.S.U. Grad 90


Tar Heel Mom is the best chance at upsetting the favorite.  Music Note will be coming late, and informed decision needs it to be sloppy in order to run well.  Still, she's a couple lengths slower off the synthetic.  It's Indian Blessing's race to win or lose, but if she can't get by her, the upset chance is Tar Heel Mom.


Race 11 King's Bishop:

3. Capt. Candyman Can 108

2. Munnings 107

8. Big Drama 106

1. Vineyard Haven 101

7. Flat Bold 100

1a. Everyday Heroes 98

5. Despite the Odds 97

4. Not for Silver 96

6. Prince Joshua 94


Munnings has peaked, but is faster than most these.  I think Capt. Candyman Can will be peaking today and get the best of him.  This is THE toughest race of the day.



Race 12 Travers:

3. Warrior's Reward 108

6. Summer Bird 107

4. Quality Road 107

2. Charitable Man 105

7. Kensai 104

5. Our Edge 102

1. Hold Me Back 95


If it's a little wet and this pace sets up as it seems, the one horse who will get first jump (and be fast enough to take on) Quality Road is Warrior's Reward.  I love the way Summer Bird is coming up to the race, as well.  Personally, I doubt Kensai will get the distance, and I think the first four here are bred for the classic races, while the last three are a few lengths behind.  3-6 exacta box should pay well.

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

rachel alexandra the great


Rachel Alexandra worries me.  She just peaked.  Her last two races were of astounding brilliance.  It's that kind of bold speed that you can't keep running, no matter how good a trainer is at honing it.  Curlin had three brilliant wins and should have had more of a break to get him back to that point, but he didn't.  He kept on running and racing, and slowly but surely becoming less impressive, despite being victorious. 

 

Granted, Dubai can take some starch out, but that is why you need more than three months off.  You need 6 months, minimum.  The only horses I have seen exit Dubai as better animals were Victory Gallop and Formal Gold.  I cannot explain those horses.  Perhaps they were the leggy, light types that ship well and don't turn a hair.  Or, in Formal Gold's case, perhaps he was just rounding into form and about to turn into a freak on us.  Either way, they are the exception.  All in all, I would rest her a few weeks and run her in the Jockey Club Gold Cup to close out her year.  

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

a lotta zenyatta



Zenyatta, once again, showed that she doesn't care for the synthetic as much as people would like to think.  She is bred distinctly for regular dirt.  Street Cry's offspring always handle the synthetics, but excel on the dirt.  For those of you who think that she won't be able to catch a horse like Rachel Alexandra in a dirt race with innately speed-favoring tendencies, think again.  It's true, personally I think Rachel Alexandra on her best day is better than Zenyatta's best, but it's a lot closer on a dirt track, and her owners are stupid for not sending her to the surface on wh

ich she looked her absolute best (her devastating Apple Blossom and subsequent highest career Beyer of 110).

Monday, August 10, 2009

the commentator has left the building


Commentator finally bit the big one.  He was slowing down, so it is good to see him go out in-the-money at Saratoga.  He ran

 his race, but he has yet to compete at the same level of his Mass Cap win from last year.  Live and let die, I say.  He has had enough rests and comebacks to know that we actually have seen his best, and he falls into the enviable category of one of the few to break the 120 Beyer mark in more than one two-turn event.


This gelding really was talented.  He had that cruising rate that would burn others into the ground, but always was tough on the horse, himself.  High cruising horses have brute muscle strength, and that wreaks havoc on the rest of the body.  This is one of the reasons he was seen so sparsely throughout his career.  


His best race, in my opinion, was his first Whitney win versus Saint Liam.  He not only had to blitz fractions, but he had to fight to win the race on a track that often will favor a horse with Saint Liam's mid-pack style.  


He was a fast mother, and I look forward to seeing what happens now that he is gone.  Who will be the next horse running Candy Ride-style Beyers.  

Saturday, August 8, 2009

Del Mar: Bing Crosby

Bing Crosby

1. Zensational 107

6. Talkin to Mom Roo 103

4. Delta Storm 99

5. Hurry Up Austin 94

2. Bahama Breeze 93

3. Global Hunter 89


Talkin to Mom Roo looks like a very sly bet here.  I can easily see Delta Storm and Bahama Breeze taking the race to Zensational to disallow the feisty sophomore an easy lead.  If the soften the big favorite up at all, Roo is the way to go.  He has actually run equally as fast as Zensational, but the difference is we have yet to see how fast the Zen is.  Best Bets: Zensational & Talkin to Mom Roo.

Saratoga: Test & Whitney

Test

2. Cat Moves 98

6. Flashing 98

5. First Passage 93

4. Heart Ashley 90

7. Reforestation 89

8. All of Her Twist 88

1. Pretty Prolific 87

3. Olde Glamour 82


Flashing had the heat put on her in the Mother Goose, and that 9 furlong sprint should have her wound pretty tightly for this race.  I think she is the best bet to beat Cat Moves.  Otherwise, Cat Moves is a tough filly to beat.  Tony Dutrow comes from the school of Frankel, and that means that their horses run at a top-level race-after-race... not just one huge peak performance.  First Passage wins this if she repeats her last race, but I doubt a 10 length jump in her last race will not beget a bounce.  Even with the bounce, she's really well-bred and her sire-given grit and overall class will keep her near the front at the end.  Heart Ashley needs to learn to rate to win this, and the rest are very closely bunched in talent.  Best Bets: Cat Moves & First Passage. 


Whitney

4. Macho Again  108

7. Commentator 107

1. Smooth Air 106

6. Dry Martini 103

3. Bullsbay 100

5. Tizway 98


I can see Commentator going out to his customary lead, but being run down by the relentless Saratoga-loving Macho Uno.  This horse always seems to beat me when I count him out, so let's hope some faith helps me.  Smooth Air and Dry Martini will be coming, as well.  I do fear that Commentator has lost a step.  Best Bets: Macho Again & Smooth Air.  

Arlington stakes picks


Secretariat

9. Black Bear Island 96

10. Giant Oak 94

1a. Driving Snow 92

4. Laureate Conductor 92

5. Oil Man 91

7. Take the Points 91

8. Reb 89

3. Proceed Bee 86

6. Quite a Handful 85

1. Cliffy's Future 80

2. Hoosier Kingdom 76


Black Bear Island, if he runs like his Dante win (at 10.5 furlongs), wins this.  Giant Oak, if he doesn't regress again, runs well, and Driving Snow looks to be something special.  Clement is always dangerous at this meet, so watch out for Laureate Conductor.  Oil Man, Take the Points, and Reb are great bets to be in there for the exotics, but none seem to have a stronger punch than the previous four.  Best bets: Black Bear Island and Laureate Conductor.


Beverly D

5. Mad About You 101

7. Dynaforce 100

1. Alnadana 99

2. Pure Clan 99

4. Black Mamba 98

8. Denomnation 96

3. Points of Grace 95

6. Tizaqueena 90


Really tough race.  If the real Dynaforce shows up, she can dispose of Tizaqueena on the corner and open up on this field.  Mad About You, if she returns to her form of last year, has the class to draw away from this field, and Pure Clan & Black Mamba will be coming, no matter what.  The safest bets are Pure Clan and Mad About You.  


Arlington Million

8. Cima de Triomphe 109

6. Gio Ponti 108

7. Gloria de Campeao 107

1. Einstein 105

4. Stotsfold 104

3. Just As Well 102

2. Presious Passion 101

5. Mr. Sidney 99

9. Recapture the Glory 90


Cima ran fourth to the top 3 turf horses in the world in his last race.  Enough said.  Gio Ponti is going to be there no matter what, but I think he may have peaked in his last race when winning easily at a distance that should have been slightly out of his range.  Gloria de Campeao loves the left-handed course and distance, and will be sitting in the proverbial catbird seat.  I love Pascal Bary, his trainer, and respect the hell out of his ability to ship winners over here.  Einstein is always a good bet for in-the-money, but his numbers are a length or two too slow for the top three.  Best Bets:  Gio Ponti and Gloria de Campeao.  

Friday, July 31, 2009

Weekend Stakes - Fri/Sat

Lake George Stakes
This is as wide open a race as you will find.  The filly who looks the most promising is the wonderfully-bred Lady Shakespeare.  There are also a couple fillies in here who look like they will go off at a decent value (Mary's Follies and Strike the Bell), and then there is the crowd favorite, Shug McGaughey's Consequence.  I could go on and on, but I will make a quick prediction.  Kiawah Cat is trained by Mott and moves to the arms of Julien Leparoux.  Leparoux is amazing on horses with her come-from-behind style.  
1. Kiawah Cat
2. The Best Day Ever
3. Consequence
4. Lady Shakespeare

West Virginia Derby
It's hard to pick against Mine that Bird, especially in this field, but I have to say that the pace scenario is dead-against him.  I will take a shot and pick the Canadian, Monty's Best, who is a really quality colt.  He ran a great second in the Iriquois in his lone dirt start last year.  Since then he has won both his starts back at 6 and 8.5 furlongs over Woodbine's Polytrack.  He may be better on
 conventional dirt, though, and his pedigree can stretch to the distance.  He should do well sitting right off Big Drama and Soul Warrior and out sprinting Mine That Bird to the wire.
1. Monty's Best
2. Mine That Bird
3. Big Drama
4. Soul Warrior

Diana Stakes
It will take something huge to stop Forever Together from winning this race.  Rutherienne may go to Monmouth to avoid her, and Criticism would have to set a :52 half on firm turf to win this over the Champion.  Look for the other Clement filly to run well, also.  
1. Forever Together
2. Rutherienne
3. Criticism
4. Carribean Sunset

Jim Dandy Stakes
Charitable Man gets a pace set-up and distance that fit him.  He's a talented horse and if he's right, he wins this- no matter how good Kensai is getting.  The six pound distance between Warrior's Reward and Kensai will come into play, though, and Convocation is improving
 quickly enough to make some noise.  
1. Charitable Man
2. Warrior's Reward
3. Kensai
4. Convocation


Saturday, July 11, 2009

Thoughts on the Man o' War-G1

MAN O' WAR STAKES
BELMONT PARK
11 Furlongs - Turf
Grade 1

The feeling here is that it is a lot tighter than it seems. I think Marsh Side and Quijano are being overlooked. To me, Dancing Forever is the horse to beat, not Gio Ponti (as the odds will tell you). Additionally, Grant Couturier is really dangerous if he is in better shape than his trainer is letting on. Midships is a wild card, but I doubt he will run to his lofty expectations here. For value's sake, I would throw Marsh Side on top and see if he floats up to 10-1.

4. Marsh Side
8. Dancing Forever
9. Gio Ponti
3. Quijano
2. Grand Couturier
7. Midships
5. Interpatation
6. Chinchon
1. Musketier

Friday, July 10, 2009

Fasig Tipton Saratoga Top Picks




From the upcoming Saratoga Select Sale:


My top 4 hips to watch for this sale are as follows:


1.)  Hip 7   Ch. f. 08 (Henny Hughes-Sass Me*Carson City) (4/30)

This daughter of the first crop of speedster Henny Hughes (by Hennessy), comes from a sire who could carry his speed around one turn up to 8.5 furlongs (second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Belmont), while coming from a dam whose half sisters are two of the fastest female sprinters we have seen in quite some time: Madcap Escapade and Dubai Escapade.  The former was able to carry her speed up to a mile around two turns, and was also a daughter of Hennessy, making this filly a very close relation.  Add to this the bold precociousness and damsire prowess of Carson City (arguably the in the best three juvenile sires of our time, along with Meadowlake and Phone Trick... and he is also the damsire of Barbaro), and you have a filly who looks like she will absolutely fly.  And, fly early.


2. Hip 66  B.c.08 (Mr. Greeley-Angel's Nest*Storm Cat) (3/14)


Mr. Greeley always shocks me with his quality as a sire.  He was a stellar sprinter/miler his entire career, but never flashed the kind of brilliance that hinted at his chances as a stallion.  He tends to beget good milers with high cruising rates, on all three surfaces.  Add to this the best-bred dam in the sale, Angel's Nest (Storm Cat-Miesque), and you have a colt who is bred to run on anything, and be a superior miler.  Miesque has given her offspring the same brilliant turn of foot that she had, and Storm Cat adds speed, grit, and classic brilliance to his offspring.  This colt should be the sale topper, but Mr. Greeley still is not as flashy as the A.P. Indys and Unbridled's Songs.  


3. Hip 110  DB.f.08 (Giant's Causeway-Dancethruthestorm*Thunder Gulch) (2/15)(ONT)


This filly has Queen's Plate written all over her.  By Giant's Causeway, from the great Sam-Son family of Dance Smartly, with the endurance and classic grittiness of Thunder Gulch added.  This filly will run on everything short of broken glass.  Enough said.  


4. Hip 221  Gr.c.08 (Unbridled's Song-Pure Symmetry*Storm Cat/Serena's Song)(3/15)


What has to be the second-best bred colt in the sale is this son of Unbridled's Song, out of Pure Symmetry (Storm Cat-Serena's Song).  Not only was Serena's Song an amazing racemare, but she has passed on her genes to produce multiple G1 and G2 winners.  If you add in the Unbridled's Song influence, you have a colt with a similar genetic makeup as MGSW Harlington (Unbridled-Serena's Song), but with more speed with the addition of Storm Cat, and more scope (Trolley Song/Caro).  This colt has classic distance and tactical speed written all over him.

Saturday, May 2, 2009

DERBY DAY STAKES PICKS (w/ ASP)

ADOLPHSON SPEED RATINGS
PICKS - Saturday (DERBY Day)
Race 6 - The Churchill Downs Sprint
1. My Pal Charlie 103
3. Kodiak Kowboy 102
2. The Roundhouse 99
9. Sok Sok 98
5. Spotsgone 97
4. Ide Like a Double 94
6. Accredit 93
8. Silver Edition 92
7. Hewitts 88

This is the always-important 2nd-race off a layoff for My Pal Charlie. Kodiak Kowboy will be flying late along w/ The Roundhouse, and Sok Sok will be setting a rapid pace. This sets up for My Pal Charlie.


Race 7 - The Eight Belles Stakes
1. Just Jenda 94
4. Four Gifts 93
10. Auspicious 92
7. Loveyou Everybody 88
3. C.S. Silk 86
5. Warrior Maid 85
8. Lady's Laughter 84
2. She's Extreme 72
6. Dave's Revenge 72

Four Gifts and Auspicious are coming up to the race really well for Asmussen (trainer), but Just Jenda has been pointed for this race for a while. She will be tough.


Race 8 - Churchill Distaff Turf Mile
2. Visit 98
9. Elusive Lady 94
10. Rustic Flame 92
1. Lemon Chiffon 92
11. Dawn After Dawn 91
7. Ballymore Lady 91
6. Sugar Mint 90
3. Tizaqueena 90
5. Zee Zee 85
8. Stealin' Kisses 85
4. Rasierra 82

Visit and Elusive Lady are the mares to beat. Visit is the better of the two... she just needs a good trip. If she gets that, she'll run them into the ground and nip them at the wire.


Race 9 - Humana Distaff
9. Game Face 102
5. Secret Gypsy 101
4. Bear Now 99
7. Royale Michele 96
2. Dubai Majesty 95
3. Informed Decision 95
1. Tiz to Dream 90
8. Modification 89
6. Temple Street 79

Secret Gypsy is the fastest and Game Face is the most reliable. At 7 furlongs of distance, I pick the latter, especially after her last race looked so good.

Race 10 - Woodford Reserve Turf Classic
8. Cowboy Cal 105
6. Einstein 103
3. Proudinsky 102
4. Court Vision 102
9. Zambezi Sun 102
1. Artiste Royal 100
5. Yate's Black Cat 99
2. El Caballo 98
10. Thorn Song 96
7. Furthest Land 95

Einstein is the horse to beat and Proudinsky is really reliable. Court Vision and Zambezi will be flying late, but prefer longer races. The overlooked horse in the race is Cowboy Cal, who is fast enough to compete, and is always tough to run down. I think he will hold off Einstein and outsprint the rest. If not, Zambezi Sun is the wild card. He is faster than all of them-- but he needs more distance.


Race 11 - Kentucky Derby

13. I Want Revenge 111
7. Papa Clem 107
15. Dunkirk 106
6. Friesan Fire 106
16. Poineerof the Nile 105
1. West Side Bernie 104
12. General Quarters 104
19. Desert Party 103
2. Musket Man 103
17. Summer Bird 102
20. Flying Private 100
10. Regal Ransom 99
11. Chocolate Candy 98
5. Hold Me Back 97
14. Atomic Rain 97
3. Mr. Hot Stuff 96
18. Nowhere to Hide 94
8. Mine That Bird 93
4. Advice 92
9. Join in the Dance 90

In a fairly run race, I Want Revenge is the fastest. Papa Clem is going to be great odds, and is a tough tough tough competitor. Dunkirk will be flying late but needs a fast pace, which is not a given. Friesan Fire is in peak shape, and will be right there. He was my #1 for a long time, but he has to outkick I Want Revenge- which is impossible if I Want Revenge is in peak condition. The wildcard in this race is Pioneerof the Nile. He has never run in dirt, but is brilliant. If he likes the dirt, he is in the top 2, and maybe even beats them all. I Want Revenge is the safest bet.

Adolphson Thoroughbred Consulting

Washington, D.C.

MHAdolphson@Gmail.com
www.AdolphsonTC.com
202.716.7046