Saturday, May 2, 2009

DERBY DAY STAKES PICKS (w/ ASP)

ADOLPHSON SPEED RATINGS
PICKS - Saturday (DERBY Day)
Race 6 - The Churchill Downs Sprint
1. My Pal Charlie 103
3. Kodiak Kowboy 102
2. The Roundhouse 99
9. Sok Sok 98
5. Spotsgone 97
4. Ide Like a Double 94
6. Accredit 93
8. Silver Edition 92
7. Hewitts 88

This is the always-important 2nd-race off a layoff for My Pal Charlie. Kodiak Kowboy will be flying late along w/ The Roundhouse, and Sok Sok will be setting a rapid pace. This sets up for My Pal Charlie.


Race 7 - The Eight Belles Stakes
1. Just Jenda 94
4. Four Gifts 93
10. Auspicious 92
7. Loveyou Everybody 88
3. C.S. Silk 86
5. Warrior Maid 85
8. Lady's Laughter 84
2. She's Extreme 72
6. Dave's Revenge 72

Four Gifts and Auspicious are coming up to the race really well for Asmussen (trainer), but Just Jenda has been pointed for this race for a while. She will be tough.


Race 8 - Churchill Distaff Turf Mile
2. Visit 98
9. Elusive Lady 94
10. Rustic Flame 92
1. Lemon Chiffon 92
11. Dawn After Dawn 91
7. Ballymore Lady 91
6. Sugar Mint 90
3. Tizaqueena 90
5. Zee Zee 85
8. Stealin' Kisses 85
4. Rasierra 82

Visit and Elusive Lady are the mares to beat. Visit is the better of the two... she just needs a good trip. If she gets that, she'll run them into the ground and nip them at the wire.


Race 9 - Humana Distaff
9. Game Face 102
5. Secret Gypsy 101
4. Bear Now 99
7. Royale Michele 96
2. Dubai Majesty 95
3. Informed Decision 95
1. Tiz to Dream 90
8. Modification 89
6. Temple Street 79

Secret Gypsy is the fastest and Game Face is the most reliable. At 7 furlongs of distance, I pick the latter, especially after her last race looked so good.

Race 10 - Woodford Reserve Turf Classic
8. Cowboy Cal 105
6. Einstein 103
3. Proudinsky 102
4. Court Vision 102
9. Zambezi Sun 102
1. Artiste Royal 100
5. Yate's Black Cat 99
2. El Caballo 98
10. Thorn Song 96
7. Furthest Land 95

Einstein is the horse to beat and Proudinsky is really reliable. Court Vision and Zambezi will be flying late, but prefer longer races. The overlooked horse in the race is Cowboy Cal, who is fast enough to compete, and is always tough to run down. I think he will hold off Einstein and outsprint the rest. If not, Zambezi Sun is the wild card. He is faster than all of them-- but he needs more distance.


Race 11 - Kentucky Derby

13. I Want Revenge 111
7. Papa Clem 107
15. Dunkirk 106
6. Friesan Fire 106
16. Poineerof the Nile 105
1. West Side Bernie 104
12. General Quarters 104
19. Desert Party 103
2. Musket Man 103
17. Summer Bird 102
20. Flying Private 100
10. Regal Ransom 99
11. Chocolate Candy 98
5. Hold Me Back 97
14. Atomic Rain 97
3. Mr. Hot Stuff 96
18. Nowhere to Hide 94
8. Mine That Bird 93
4. Advice 92
9. Join in the Dance 90

In a fairly run race, I Want Revenge is the fastest. Papa Clem is going to be great odds, and is a tough tough tough competitor. Dunkirk will be flying late but needs a fast pace, which is not a given. Friesan Fire is in peak shape, and will be right there. He was my #1 for a long time, but he has to outkick I Want Revenge- which is impossible if I Want Revenge is in peak condition. The wildcard in this race is Pioneerof the Nile. He has never run in dirt, but is brilliant. If he likes the dirt, he is in the top 2, and maybe even beats them all. I Want Revenge is the safest bet.

Friday, May 1, 2009

Stakes Picks for Oaks Day

ADOLPHSON SPEED RATINGS
PICKS - Friday (Oaks Day)

Race 6 - Aegon Turf Sprint
6. Chamberlain Bridge 100
2. Smart Enough 100
5. Due Date 98
7. Cannonball 97
3. Hewitts 95
4. Captivating Cat 94
8. Accredit 94
1. Chitoz 88
9. Jazz Nation 88

Chamberlain Bridge will be hard to run down, but the only horse who looks good enough to do it is Smart Enough. They are my 1-2. Due Date will be coming late and Cannonball will be right there.

Race 7 - The Louisville Distaff
4. One Caroline 105
2. Zenyatta 104
1. Swift Temper 98
8. Unbridled Belle 98
3. Miss Isella 92
6. Modification 91
5. Unforgotten 88
7. French Kiss 86

Zenyatta (HUGE favorite) is vulnerable in a race with a front-runner, One Caroline, who has run numbers just as fast as her, and will have very little competition on the pace.

Race 8 - Edgewood Stakes
7. Magical Affair 89
10. Laragh 88
11. Diamond Tags 87
1. Excelente 86
4. Abbott Hall 86
8. More of the Best 84
3. Banker's Choice 83
2. Fleet Streak 79
6. Complicity 77
5. Walloon 75
9. Mein Fraulein 72
12. Kiss Mine 69

Magical Affair has the right running style to run down the front-running Laragh and Diamond Tags, while Excelente and Abbot Hall should be right in the mix.

Race 9 - Alysheba Stakes
8. Dr.Pleasure 104
1. Macho Again 103
5. Bullsbay 102
3. Mambo in Seattle 102
10. Informed 100
2. Ready Set 96
4. Cool Coal Man 94
6. Star Guitar 93
9. Prom Shoes 92
7. Shift in Power 86

Dr. Pleasure, like his mother, is putting it all together at late age. Macho Again is the horse to beat, while Maryland horse (woohoo!), Bullsbay is looking like he is in peak form.

Race 10 - American Turf
3. Battle of Hastings (GB) 94
5. Skipadate 93
6. Bittel Road 92
1. Stormalory 91
2. Jack Spratt 88
7. Turfiste 85
9. Orthodox 82
8. Bunker HIll 80
4. Bruce N Autumn 79

If Skipadate and Bittel Road return to their old forms, they will be 1-2. Otherwise, Battle of Hastings is the horse to beat.

Race 11 - Kentucky Oaks
6. Rachel Alexandra 107
8. Flying Spur 104
5. Justwhistledixie 100
7. Nan 96
4. Gabby's Golden Gal 94
2. Be Fair 92
1. Tweeter 85
3. Stone Legacy 70

Flying Spur is dangerous, and Justwhistledixie is tough, but Rachel Alexandra should win. She is just the best.

Adolphson Thoroughbred Consulting

Washington, D.C.

MHAdolphson@Gmail.com
www.AdolphsonTC.com
202.716.7046