DERBY DAY STAKES PICKS (w/ ASP)

ADOLPHSON SPEED RATINGS

PICKS - Saturday (DERBY Day)

Race 6 - The Churchill Downs Sprint
1. My Pal Charlie 103
3. Kodiak Kowboy 102
2. The Roundhouse 99
9. Sok Sok 98
5. Spotsgone 97
4. Ide Like a Double 94
6. Accredit 93
8. Silver Edition 92
7. Hewitts 88

This is the always-important 2nd-race off a layoff for My Pal Charlie. Kodiak Kowboy will be flying late along w/ The Roundhouse, and Sok Sok will be setting a rapid pace. This sets up for My Pal Charlie.

Race 7 - The Eight Belles Stakes
1. Just Jenda 94
4. Four Gifts 93
10. Auspicious 92
7. Loveyou Everybody 88
3. C.S. Silk 86
5. Warrior Maid 85
8. Lady's Laughter 84
2. She's Extreme 72
6. Dave's Revenge 72

Four Gifts and Auspicious are coming up to the race really well for Asmussen (trainer), but Just Jenda has been pointed for this race for a while. She will be tough.

Race 8 - Churchill Distaff Turf Mile
2. Visit 98
9. Elusive Lady 94
10. Rustic Flame 92
1. Lemon Chiffon 92
11. Dawn After Dawn 91
7. Ballymore Lady 91
6. Sugar Mint 90
3. Tizaqueena 90
5. Zee Zee 85
8. Stealin' Kisses 85
4. Rasierra 82

Visit and Elusive Lady are the mares to beat. Visit is the better of the two... she just needs a good trip. If she gets that, she'll run them into the ground and nip them at the wire.

Race 9 - Humana Distaff
9. Game Face 102
5. Secret Gypsy 101
4. Bear Now 99
7. Royale Michele 96
2. Dubai Majesty 95
3. Informed Decision 95
1. Tiz to Dream 90
8. Modification 89
6. Temple Street 79

Secret Gypsy is the fastest and Game Face is the most reliable. At 7 furlongs of distance, I pick the latter, especially after her last race looked so good.

Race 10 - Woodford Reserve Turf Classic
8. Cowboy Cal 105
6. Einstein 103
3. Proudinsky 102
4. Court Vision 102
9. Zambezi Sun 102
1. Artiste Royal 100
5. Yate's Black Cat 99
2. El Caballo 98
10. Thorn Song 96
7. Furthest Land 95

Einstein is the horse to beat and Proudinsky is really reliable. Court Vision and Zambezi will be flying late, but prefer longer races. The overlooked horse in the race is Cowboy Cal, who is fast enough to compete, and is always tough to run down. I think he will hold off Einstein and outsprint the rest. If not, Zambezi Sun is the wild card. He is faster than all of them-- but he needs more distance.

Race 11 - Kentucky Derby
13. I Want Revenge 111
7. Papa Clem 107
15. Dunkirk 106
6. Friesan Fire 106
16. Poineerof the Nile 105
1. West Side Bernie 104
12. General Quarters 104
19. Desert Party 103
2. Musket Man 103
17. Summer Bird 102
20. Flying Private 100
10. Regal Ransom 99
11. Chocolate Candy 98
5. Hold Me Back 97
14. Atomic Rain 97
3. Mr. Hot Stuff 96
18. Nowhere to Hide 94
8. Mine That Bird 93
4. Advice 92
9. Join in the Dance 90

In a fairly run race, I Want Revenge is the fastest. Papa Clem is going to be great odds, and is a tough tough tough competitor. Dunkirk will be flying late but needs a fast pace, which is not a given. Friesan Fire is in peak shape, and will be right there. He was my #1 for a long time, but he has to outkick I Want Revenge- which is impossible if I Want Revenge is in peak condition. The wildcard in this race is Pioneerof the Nile. He has never run in dirt, but is brilliant. If he likes the dirt, he is in the top 2, and maybe even beats them all. I Want Revenge is the safest bet.