Friday, March 27, 2009

WORLD CUP/ FLA DERBY weekend A.S.P.

ADOLPHSON SPEED PROJECTIONS

Godolphin Mile
13. Gayego 107
4. Two Step Salsa 105
11. Informed 100
15. Dijeerr 99
3. Summer Doldrums 99
12. Lucky Find 98
8. Tiz Now Tiz Then 98
2. Don Renato 97
6. Kalahari Gold 96
1. Cat Junior 95
10. Art of War 94
5. Green Coast 93
9. BraveTin Soldier 92
7. Al Morhij 91
14. Golden Arrow 90

Gayego ran his best beyer at nine furlongs last year, and is increasing distance after an easy win over Diabolical at six panels. Two Step Salsa is another true miler, and I think this will be a Godolphin showdown, with Gayego gunning after the latter. The peaking, Informed, will fly late with Lucky Find, Tiz Now, Don Renato, and Summer Doldrums (remember him?). Summer Doldrums is bred to adore the sandy course at Nad Al Sheba. If it turns up wet, he gets even more of a chance, but in the end, Gayego and Two Step Salsa are lengths better than these. Dijeerr has finally found the dirt, and improved immensely (duh!), and his pace is probably the reason I am picking Gayego over Two Step Salsa.

UAE Derby
1. Regal Ransom 97
5. Desert Party 96
11. Soy Libriano 95
10. Jose Adan 91
6. Redding Colliery 90
7. So Shiny 89
3. Lelah Dorak 88
12. Naval Officer 87
2. I Am The Best 86
13. Paso de Gloria 85
9. Balcarce Nov 85
8. Ra Junior 81
4. Muy Ponderado 80

I have loved Regal Ransom since his first race. He is starting to grow, and will actually get a pace to run at this time. His quick turn of foot can get the jump on Desert Party, who may be stuck in traffic. If he has turned the corner, then he is just as good, or better, than Desert Party. His debut showed me that he was special, and he could very well destroy this field. Everyone has forgotten about Soy Libriano, who could move up after winning the Al Bastakiya, at this course and distance. Jose Adan ran really well, as well, and has that Cryptoclearance blood of running from off the map to win big races. Watch out. Redding Colliery is a classy colt who can win if it falls apart, and will be right there the entire time.

Dubai Golden Shaheen
3. Diabolical 107
12. Indian Blessing 106
2. Big City Man 105
7. Marchand d'Or 103
6. Black Seventeen 102
4. Lucky Quality 100
9. Machismo 100
1. Force Freeze 98
8. Balthazaar's Gift 97
10. Hammadi 95
11. Bamboo Ere 92
5. Change Alley 91

Weak race. The "X" factor is whether Marchand d'Or likes the dirt. He loves heavy and soft courses, so he probably will like the dirt, despite a turf pedigree. I think Indian Blessing is the fastest, but if she goes head-to-head with a primed Diabolical, she will lose in a dogfight. Black Seventeen would be 8 points higher (4 lengths or so) if he did not have all the setbacks this week. If he's healthy (a miracle), he is my #1, but I have to believe that he is lacking right now.


Dubai Duty Free
10. Archipenko 111
12. Lady Marian 110
15. Jay Peg 109
13. Paco Boy 108
8. Balius 107
3. Vodka 106
5. Hyperbaric 106
6. Creachadoir 105
7. Kip Deville 105
2. Gladiatorus 105
16. Presvis 105
4. Niconero 104
14. Charlie Fanrsbarns 104
1. Bankable 103
9. Alexandros 101
11. Tuesday Joy 98

Tough, tough race. Archipenko and Jay Peg will be the two to beat, but Lady Marian is classy enough to win this. Paco Boy, if the race was a mile, is the winner. Kip Deville is not as good at nine furlongs (especially in this field), and Hyperbaric is tough, but in the deep end. Vodka and Balius are super classy, and will have something to say. I expect a blanket finish, with one of the top three winning.

Dubai Sheema Classic
6. Youmzain 109
13. Doctor Dino 108
15. Macarthur 107
10. Quijano 107
7. Purple Moon 106
12. Red Rocks 106
4. Spanish Moon 105
8. Marsh Side 104
14. Kirklees 104
1. Front House 104
2. Eastern Anthem 103
5. King of Rome 101
11. Kings Gambit 99
3. Russian Sage 96
9. Deem 92

Youmzain is the best horse in the race, but always is softer in the beginning of the season. Perhaps he has grown up enough to win this, but you never know. Still, he is the fastest, and must be respected. Long shot, Macarthur, is going to go off at HUGE odds, but is your sneaky bet of the day. He's classy, but has yet to find his stride. If he's in here, it means perhaps he has, and de Kock is smiling. Purple Moon and Red Rocks, if they run their races, are right there, but both are volatile. Marsh Side, like Hyperbaric, looks great but is in over his head.

Dubai World Cup
8. Casino Drive 110
4. Asiatic Boy 108
10. Albertus Maximus 107
12. Anak Nakal 106
2. Arson Squad 106
7. Well Armed 106
14. My Indy 105
5. Happy Boy 104
9. Joe Louis 103
6. Gloria de Campeao 102
11. Muller 101
3. Snaafy 101
1. Muhannak 96
13. Paris Perfect 94

What a sub par version of the world's richest race. What happens when subpar G1 races happen? A Japanese horse wins them. Ten furlongs is the optimum distance for Casino Drive, and Asiatic Boy is the horse to beat. Albertus Maximus, Arson Squad, and Well Armed will be super tough, but I think Anak Nakal will come flying out of the clouds for a piece of it. I will, honestly, be cheering for Anak Nakal, as I would like to see Nick Zito win the world's richest race (despite him being in Florida). My Indy is in over his head, but if it falls apart, is primed to win it.

Swale
5. Brave Victory 99
1. This Ones for Phil 98
6. Big Drama 96
2. B Z Warrior 94
4. Custom for Carlos 93
3. Sabi Sabi 83

Brave Victory was one of my favorite juveniles, and has been given the time to grow into his giant stride. Two works back he smoked 55 other workers, and looks to be primed to run down the pacesetters, if the pace is honest. Custom for Carlos looks good, but may bounce off his last, while Big Drama will not be cranked the entire way. This Ones for Phil is the fastest, but could still be feeling the effects of the insane 116 Beyer two starts back. B Z Warrior is the best longshot bet, as he has the Pletcher factor; a trainer who is always great at placing a horse's first stakes race.

Florida Derby
6. Theregoesjojo 109
2. Quality Road 107
4. Dunkirk 106
7. Danger to Society 99
1. Toby the Coal Man 96
5. Sincero 91
9. Stately Character 83
3. Casey's On Call 80
8. Europe 75

Putting the numbers together for this one surprised me. I expect Quality Road to regress slightly, but still run 'big.' Dunkirk will move up about four lengths from his last race (especially since Pletcher is under the Coolmore gun to make it into the Derby), and Danger to Society should run MUCH better than last time. The surprise is that Theregoesjojo's pattern states that, if he gets the distance,he will outrun the top two to the wire by two lengths. The funny thing about this race is that the royally bred rabbit, Europe, works more in Theregoesjojo's favor than Dunkirk, and actually helps give Quality Road something at which to run. Danger to Society will have something to say about the pace, but I feel he will be outrun late. The only thing I dislike here is that I feel Desormeaux's riding style does not match Theregoesjojo. I would much rather see Prado, Albarado, or Leparoux on him. Despite that, his speed projections scream "peak performance approaching."

Appleton
1. Passager 100
3. Kiss the Kid 99
5. Bold Start 96
2. Vanquisher 94
6. Avanti Avanti 92
4. Granizo 80

Kiss the Kid looks to be the classiest, but I believe Passager will hit his best stride to catch him at the line. Bold Start is classy and tough, and I expect McPeek to have him ready to run a huge race.

A GREAT WEEKEND OF RACING!!!

Saturday, March 21, 2009

Adolphson Speed Projections - Turfway 3/21

Rushaway Stakes
2. Ziegfield 85
5. No Inflation 84
3. Fitzaslew 83
4. Cliffy's Future 81
1. Ninth Client 75
6. Summer's Empire 73
8. Toccet Rocket 70
7. Sundays Baby Grand 69

Lane's End
3. A.P. Cardinal 96
2. Bittel Road 95
4. West Side Bernie 93
6. Parade Clown 90
1. Hold Me Back 87
5. Jack Spratt 86
8. Orthodox 85
10. Flying Private 83
7. Bruce N Autumn 83
9. Loch Dubh 81
12. Proceed Bee 80
11. Dynamite Bob 55

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

kentucky quatorze 3/17/09

1. Quality Road
I picked him in the FOY, and now he moves right back up to the top. Bet him in the Florida Derby- I have a feeling that he will be the Derby favorite afterward.
2. Charitable Man
After six works, the usually conservative McLaughlin is thinking Blue Grass. This colt was screaming for two turns as a juvenile, so the jump will be no problem. Watch out for him, he was my original #1.
3. Theregoesjojo
Most exciting kick of any horse.
4. I Want Revenge
So impressive that he may scare everyone away from the Wood. He’s fast, explosive, and has that wonderful low-head action of his sire and grandsire.
5. The Pamplemousse
Looked impressive, and simply needs to do the same on dirt.
6. Hello Broadway
He ran up charging on the outside only to spin his wheels. I hold out hope that he’s as brilliant as he seems. He will be incredibly tough in the Wood/Ark Derby.
7. Flying Pegasus
Talented and improving. Throw out his dirt excursion- his sire hated the wet. He was bound to bounce a bit after a brilliant comeback. Watch out next time. Will probably wind up in the Wood, or wait a week for the Arkansas Derby. I doubt they’ll try him on synthetic this late in the game.
8. Friesan Fire
Keeps improving. My only worry is over-racing. He is definitely a slop-lover, but his race made me think that he is possibly peaking too early.
9. Old Fashioned
Once again looked less like the brilliant closing quarter of the Remsen (after a :50 half, mind you). Despite this, we should see him at near peak in the next- then we’ll know what we’re dealing with.
10. General Quarters
Love that he lost- now he’s a wonderfully overlooked horse. His race 2 back was impressive enough to keep this position.
11. Take the Points
Loved his race in the Sham. Earned my respect. Would like to see him taken to the Illinois Derby and win easily, or earn his keep in the Wood.
12. Dunkirk
A bit of a loper, but full of natural talent. Still, he has to show a quick turn of foot and a devastating win vs. extremely talented colts in the Florida Derby.
13. Imperial Council
Needless to say, he is the epitome of dangerous in the Wood.
14. Break Water Edison
We have yet to hear what went wrong. I still think the world of him, and I refuse to accept his last two. I think he hated the raceday track. I think he hated the blinkers, and I think he got crap rides in both races. Take him back up to the Wood Memorial and let him run on a surface he loves.

Saturday, March 14, 2009

Speed Projections 3/14/09

FG Oaks
3. Rachel Alexandra 99
5. Flying Spur 98
2. Four Gifts 94
4. African Skies 87
6. War Tigress 85
1. Our Dahlia 73

N.O. Handicap
6. Wishful Tomcat 103
10. Honest Man 103
14. My Pal Charlie 103
12. Richard's Kid 101
1. It's a Bird 101
8. Good and Lucky 100
4. Dry Martini 100
2. Golden Yank 99
11. Macho Again 99
9. Slew's Tiznow 98
5. Brothers Nicholas 97
7. El Caballo 95
3. Secret Getaway 94
13. Star Guitar 94

Muniz Hcp
10. Nownownow 101
13. Proudinsky 100
6. Soldier's Dancer 99
4. Golden Yank 98
12. Transduction Gold 97
1a. French Beret 96
8. Corrupt 96
9. El Caballo 95
5. Wesley 95
2. Brass Hat 94
1. Windward Islandsf 94
11. Demarcation 94
3. My Happiness 92
7. Sir Whimsey 87

La. Derby
8. Papa Clem 98
5. Flying Pegasus 97
9. Friesan Fire 96
3. Patena 96
10. Nowhere to Hide 95
4. Terrain 94
6. Giant Oak 93
1. Free Country 92
7. Uno Mas 92
2. Soul Warrior 88

San Felipe
2. Pioneerof the Nile 93
4. Shafted 91
6. Kelly Leak 90
7. New Bay 89
3. Feisty Suances 86
5. Jeranimo 84
1. He's Really Big 83

Tampa Bay Derby
4. Hello Broadway 100
6. Sumo 98
8. General Quarters 98
2. Musket Man 97
9. Bear's Rocket 95
5. Warrior's Reward 94
3. Nowhere to Hide 93
7. Join in the Dance 89
11. Top Seed 85
10. Justdontcallmejeri 80
1. Perfect Bull 73

Rebel
8. Silver City 98
1. Old Fashioned 97
3. Poltergeist 96
5. Wise Kid 87
2. Hamazing Destiny 86
9. Win Willy 82
6. His Greatness 81
7. Captain Cherokee 80
4. Pointing Home 78

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

3/7/09 Stakes Speed Projections

SA Handicap
11. Court Vision 104
1. Matto Mondo 103
12. Zambezi Sun 102
8. Einstein 102
13. Champs Elysees 101
4. Monba 101
7. Blue Exit 100
5. Colonel John 100
14. Stream Cat 100
2. Cowboy Cal 99
6. Magnum 99
9. Dansant 96
3. Heroi Do Bafra 89
10. Cause 88

SA Oaks
3. Miss Silver Brook 92
1. Stardom Bound 91
2. Burg Berg 90
8. Beltene 87
4. Hooh Why 86
10. Acronym 86
6. Nan 83
7. Will O Way 83
9. Third Dawn 82
5. Stormy Slew 80

Kilroe Mile
11. Gio Ponti 102
1. Ventura 101
9. Global Hunter 101
6. Artiste Royal 100
2. Mast Track 100
7. Dixie Chatter 99
10. Becrux 96
3. Monterey Jazz 96
4. Hewitts 94
5. Wise River 94
8. Mr. Napper Tandy 93
12. Victory Pete 93

Toboggan
9. Ah Day 108
1. Driven by Success 107
5. Lucky Island 106
2. Eternal Star 104
6. West Coast Flier 100
8. Grand Champion 100
4. Joey P. 99
3. Place Your Bet 95
7. Saint Daimon 95

Gotham
8. I Want Revenge 96
5. Mr. Fantasy 95
3. Masala 94
7. Imperial Council 92
6. Haynesfield 91
2. Russell Road 90
1. Naos 89
4. Axel Foley 87
9. Giant Ryan 68

Monday, March 2, 2009

This Week's Kentucky Quatorze

My Derby 14

1. Hello Broadway
Next race will be a breakout.
2. Flying Pegasus
Talented and improving.
3. Quality Road
I picked him in the FOY, and now he moves right back up to the top.
4. Charitable Man
Guess who is back on the work tab? My original #1. He has enough bottom on him to run twice and make the Derby.
5. Theregoesjojo
Short horse last out is dangerous in the Florida Derby.
6. The Pamplemousse
Looked impressive, and simply needs to do the same on dirt.
7. Old Fashioned
His Southwest was underwhelming, but I think he's all class and deserves this exact spot.
8. Friesan Fire
Keeps improving. My only worry is over-racing.
9. I Want Revenge
Moves to AQU this week. I would like to see a break out performance versus the likes of Imperial Council.
10. General Quarters
Overlooked, improving, and beautifully bred.
11. Take the Points
Loved his race in the Sham. Earned my respect.
12. Dunkirk
A bit of a loper who doesn't have the flash of the top few here- but has a huge amount of natural ability.
13. Imperial Council
Could be anything. I loved his last two, and I think he'll make I Want Revenge and Haynesfield work for every stride in the Gotham.
14. Pioneerof the Nile
Baffert remains his best asset.

Adolphson Thoroughbred Consulting

Washington, D.C.

MHAdolphson@Gmail.com
www.AdolphsonTC.com
202.716.7046