Friday, March 27, 2009



Godolphin Mile
13. Gayego 107
4. Two Step Salsa 105
11. Informed 100
15. Dijeerr 99
3. Summer Doldrums 99
12. Lucky Find 98
8. Tiz Now Tiz Then 98
2. Don Renato 97
6. Kalahari Gold 96
1. Cat Junior 95
10. Art of War 94
5. Green Coast 93
9. BraveTin Soldier 92
7. Al Morhij 91
14. Golden Arrow 90

Gayego ran his best beyer at nine furlongs last year, and is increasing distance after an easy win over Diabolical at six panels. Two Step Salsa is another true miler, and I think this will be a Godolphin showdown, with Gayego gunning after the latter. The peaking, Informed, will fly late with Lucky Find, Tiz Now, Don Renato, and Summer Doldrums (remember him?). Summer Doldrums is bred to adore the sandy course at Nad Al Sheba. If it turns up wet, he gets even more of a chance, but in the end, Gayego and Two Step Salsa are lengths better than these. Dijeerr has finally found the dirt, and improved immensely (duh!), and his pace is probably the reason I am picking Gayego over Two Step Salsa.

UAE Derby
1. Regal Ransom 97
5. Desert Party 96
11. Soy Libriano 95
10. Jose Adan 91
6. Redding Colliery 90
7. So Shiny 89
3. Lelah Dorak 88
12. Naval Officer 87
2. I Am The Best 86
13. Paso de Gloria 85
9. Balcarce Nov 85
8. Ra Junior 81
4. Muy Ponderado 80

I have loved Regal Ransom since his first race. He is starting to grow, and will actually get a pace to run at this time. His quick turn of foot can get the jump on Desert Party, who may be stuck in traffic. If he has turned the corner, then he is just as good, or better, than Desert Party. His debut showed me that he was special, and he could very well destroy this field. Everyone has forgotten about Soy Libriano, who could move up after winning the Al Bastakiya, at this course and distance. Jose Adan ran really well, as well, and has that Cryptoclearance blood of running from off the map to win big races. Watch out. Redding Colliery is a classy colt who can win if it falls apart, and will be right there the entire time.

Dubai Golden Shaheen
3. Diabolical 107
12. Indian Blessing 106
2. Big City Man 105
7. Marchand d'Or 103
6. Black Seventeen 102
4. Lucky Quality 100
9. Machismo 100
1. Force Freeze 98
8. Balthazaar's Gift 97
10. Hammadi 95
11. Bamboo Ere 92
5. Change Alley 91

Weak race. The "X" factor is whether Marchand d'Or likes the dirt. He loves heavy and soft courses, so he probably will like the dirt, despite a turf pedigree. I think Indian Blessing is the fastest, but if she goes head-to-head with a primed Diabolical, she will lose in a dogfight. Black Seventeen would be 8 points higher (4 lengths or so) if he did not have all the setbacks this week. If he's healthy (a miracle), he is my #1, but I have to believe that he is lacking right now.

Dubai Duty Free
10. Archipenko 111
12. Lady Marian 110
15. Jay Peg 109
13. Paco Boy 108
8. Balius 107
3. Vodka 106
5. Hyperbaric 106
6. Creachadoir 105
7. Kip Deville 105
2. Gladiatorus 105
16. Presvis 105
4. Niconero 104
14. Charlie Fanrsbarns 104
1. Bankable 103
9. Alexandros 101
11. Tuesday Joy 98

Tough, tough race. Archipenko and Jay Peg will be the two to beat, but Lady Marian is classy enough to win this. Paco Boy, if the race was a mile, is the winner. Kip Deville is not as good at nine furlongs (especially in this field), and Hyperbaric is tough, but in the deep end. Vodka and Balius are super classy, and will have something to say. I expect a blanket finish, with one of the top three winning.

Dubai Sheema Classic
6. Youmzain 109
13. Doctor Dino 108
15. Macarthur 107
10. Quijano 107
7. Purple Moon 106
12. Red Rocks 106
4. Spanish Moon 105
8. Marsh Side 104
14. Kirklees 104
1. Front House 104
2. Eastern Anthem 103
5. King of Rome 101
11. Kings Gambit 99
3. Russian Sage 96
9. Deem 92

Youmzain is the best horse in the race, but always is softer in the beginning of the season. Perhaps he has grown up enough to win this, but you never know. Still, he is the fastest, and must be respected. Long shot, Macarthur, is going to go off at HUGE odds, but is your sneaky bet of the day. He's classy, but has yet to find his stride. If he's in here, it means perhaps he has, and de Kock is smiling. Purple Moon and Red Rocks, if they run their races, are right there, but both are volatile. Marsh Side, like Hyperbaric, looks great but is in over his head.

Dubai World Cup
8. Casino Drive 110
4. Asiatic Boy 108
10. Albertus Maximus 107
12. Anak Nakal 106
2. Arson Squad 106
7. Well Armed 106
14. My Indy 105
5. Happy Boy 104
9. Joe Louis 103
6. Gloria de Campeao 102
11. Muller 101
3. Snaafy 101
1. Muhannak 96
13. Paris Perfect 94

What a sub par version of the world's richest race. What happens when subpar G1 races happen? A Japanese horse wins them. Ten furlongs is the optimum distance for Casino Drive, and Asiatic Boy is the horse to beat. Albertus Maximus, Arson Squad, and Well Armed will be super tough, but I think Anak Nakal will come flying out of the clouds for a piece of it. I will, honestly, be cheering for Anak Nakal, as I would like to see Nick Zito win the world's richest race (despite him being in Florida). My Indy is in over his head, but if it falls apart, is primed to win it.

5. Brave Victory 99
1. This Ones for Phil 98
6. Big Drama 96
2. B Z Warrior 94
4. Custom for Carlos 93
3. Sabi Sabi 83

Brave Victory was one of my favorite juveniles, and has been given the time to grow into his giant stride. Two works back he smoked 55 other workers, and looks to be primed to run down the pacesetters, if the pace is honest. Custom for Carlos looks good, but may bounce off his last, while Big Drama will not be cranked the entire way. This Ones for Phil is the fastest, but could still be feeling the effects of the insane 116 Beyer two starts back. B Z Warrior is the best longshot bet, as he has the Pletcher factor; a trainer who is always great at placing a horse's first stakes race.

Florida Derby
6. Theregoesjojo 109
2. Quality Road 107
4. Dunkirk 106
7. Danger to Society 99
1. Toby the Coal Man 96
5. Sincero 91
9. Stately Character 83
3. Casey's On Call 80
8. Europe 75

Putting the numbers together for this one surprised me. I expect Quality Road to regress slightly, but still run 'big.' Dunkirk will move up about four lengths from his last race (especially since Pletcher is under the Coolmore gun to make it into the Derby), and Danger to Society should run MUCH better than last time. The surprise is that Theregoesjojo's pattern states that, if he gets the distance,he will outrun the top two to the wire by two lengths. The funny thing about this race is that the royally bred rabbit, Europe, works more in Theregoesjojo's favor than Dunkirk, and actually helps give Quality Road something at which to run. Danger to Society will have something to say about the pace, but I feel he will be outrun late. The only thing I dislike here is that I feel Desormeaux's riding style does not match Theregoesjojo. I would much rather see Prado, Albarado, or Leparoux on him. Despite that, his speed projections scream "peak performance approaching."

1. Passager 100
3. Kiss the Kid 99
5. Bold Start 96
2. Vanquisher 94
6. Avanti Avanti 92
4. Granizo 80

Kiss the Kid looks to be the classiest, but I believe Passager will hit his best stride to catch him at the line. Bold Start is classy and tough, and I expect McPeek to have him ready to run a huge race.


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