Wednesday, April 8, 2009

looking back - initial Derby picks

It seems that my Original Kentucky Quatorze, from back in early winter (late November), has actually been holding form.
1. Flying Pegasus
2. Break Water Edison

3. Charitable Man

4. Skipadate

5. Old Fashioned

6. Regal Ransom

7. Indygo Mountain
8. Royal Vindication
9. Hello Broadway

10. Trinity Magic

11. Midshipman

12. Capt Candyman Can
13. Vineyard Haven

14. Well Positioned

And then, again, on January 6, as the year turned, here were my projections:

1. Charitable Man
2. Break Water Edison
3. Quality Road
4. Old Fashioned
5. I Want Revenge
6. Indygo Mountain
7. Flying Pegasus
8. Hello Broadway

9. Trinity Magic
10. Shafted
11. Silver City
12. Chocolate Candy
13. Square Eddie
14. Vineyard Haven

I stand by Break Water Edison, Vineyard Haven, and Well Positioned near the top. Something is amiss with them; hence him being out of action. I Want Revenge, Old Fashioned, Regal Ransom, Hello Broadway, Charitable Man, Quality Road and Flying Pegasus will all (or have already) proven their worth.

On a side note, I do think Charitable Man and Theregoesjojo (if they like the surface) are going to give the rest all they can handle in the Blue Grass. Charitable Man is still the most talented of this generation, until proven otherwise. Also, General Quarters is your best long-shot bet in that race. Time to enjoy racing!

My Current Ky Derby Quatorze (with Adolphson Speed Projection Rating)

1. I Want Revenge 111
2. Quality Road 110
3. Theregoesjojo 109
4. Charitable Man 107
5. Dunkirk 107
6. Freisan Fire 106
7. Flying Pegasus 105
8. Win Willy 104
9. Chocolate Candy 104
10. Old Fashioned 102

11. General Quarters 102
12. Pioneerof the Nile 101
13. Regal Ransom 101
14. Hold Me Back 99

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Adolphson Thoroughbred Consulting

Washington, D.C.