Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Current Derby Top 10

Here are my top 10:

1. Friesan Fire
2. I Want Revenge
3. Desert Party
4. Dunkirk
5. Poineerof the Nile
6. General Quarters
7. Chocolate Candy
8. Flying Private
9. West Side Bernie
10. Regal Ransom

I think the difference will be pace in this race. There are two pace-setters, but both are trying to win it, not be rabbits. This sets up for stalkers, and the stalkers in this race are VERY good (Friesan Fire, I Want Revenge, Desert Party, General Quarters) and will get the jump on (perhaps just as good but half as lucky pace-wise) closers (Dunkirk, Pioneerof the Nile, Win Willy, West Side Bernie, Chocolate Candy). The wild cards are pace-setter Regal Ransom and peaking Lukas-colt Flying Private. The former can put away Join in the Dance and finish in the money, while the latter may run well with a savvy Albarado in the silks, and a pace scenario that sets up for his stalking style. But, I see neither outpacing Friesan Fire or I Want Revenge home. I last-second threw out Win Willy because I don't like a novice jockey on a closer in the Derby.

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