Thursday, April 30, 2009


I really want to, form-wise, throw Desert Party in my top 5... but I can't trust a horse that Dettori did not follow over when they don't have a big horse for the 2000 Guineas. Right now, I think General Quarters and Friesan Fire have the perfect running style for this race. General Quarters outsprinting (last 3/8) all the synth horses in their last respective races (while also having awesome dirt form) is pretty enticing. I choose GQ over FF because of his post (to FF's outside) and his jockey, who is patient and will outsmart Saez & Talamo @ CD. I don't like Papa Clem to win, but he is too well-bred and ran in the most Derby-esque race, last out. He has the will, but I doubt he's fast enough. I worry that Talamo will be too confident (and drop him too far back) on I Want Revenge in his horse and won't be able to run down the top two from mid-pack. I cannot trust the closers in a race where I predict that the pace will not be too insanely fast. Of the two speed horses, they're side-by-side (which means they won't be rushing to clear from the outside), and Alan Garcia on Regal Ransom will be happy to take off the flank of Join in the Dance (I wouldn't be surprised if his running is being subsidized by Coolmore). Flying Private won't be hurt by the outside, because he has natural stalking speed and posts 15-18 will be drop-back closers. At least, that's what I believe. I think if the horse has any great talent AT ALL, it will be squeezed out of him by the same connections that shocked everyone with a brilliant 2nd place with Proud Citizen (who had a similar running style). The BIGGEST factor in this race, in my opinion, is whether or not Regal Ransom relaxes off Join in the Dance. If he does, which I doubt, he vaults to the #4 spot for me.

Current (often changing) top 5:
1. General Quarters
2. Friesan Fire
3. I Want Revenge
4. Papa Clem / (Regal Ransom)
5. Flying Private

Hating leaving these guys out... but you have to do it to someone...

6. Dunkirk (pace needs to be hot to outrun the top 3 late)
7. Hold Me Back (dirt doubts)
8. Chocolate Candy (unreliable jockey won't use his natural tractibility)
9. Desert Party (post position)
10. Poineerof the Nile (what running style will help him? is he that good?)

Big doubts
11. Musket Man (post position and endurance)
12. West Side Bernie (post position will kill him and drop him too far back)
13. Regal Ransom (not sure he can rate and relax)
14. Mr. Hot Stuff (will to win)
15. Summer Bird (believe he's brilliant, but in experienced and needs pace)

In need of wings
16. Atomic Rain (may be an AQU lover)
17. Nowhere to Hide (Just a Coincidence would have been a better entrant)
18. Join in the Dance (refer to #6)
19. Advice (synth runner)
20. Mine that Bird (a G3 horse)

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