Friday, August 28, 2009

Wilkes' day to Shine - picks for Travers Day

Race 2:

Much Rejoicing, though not trained by someone known for his juveniles, is a brilliantly bred filly by Distorted Humor, out of Soaring Softly, a champion turf mare (who had a decent dirt pedigree).

Race 3:

#1, Great Crusade, if he drops back and makes one run, could prove a great bet at 20-1.  His mother, Victory USA, was a really talented runner.  His father, Awesome Again, is known as a late developing sire.  #2, Eagle Strike, comes from one of the best families in the country.  He is by the Capote mare, True Flare, who has produced a great deal of dirt stakes winners.  He is the horse to beat.  

Race 4 , Lure Stakes:

If it stays on the turf, and is wet, #9 is the horse to beat.  He's trained by Saratoga danger, Mott, and won last out under these same conditions when it was yielding.  Leparoux is the last piece that makes me look past everyone else.

Race 6:

If it goes off the turf, #3 The Roundhouse is the horse to beat.  He has never had a chance to go 9 furlongs (which is what it'll be on the dirt), and is bred to love it.

Race 7 , Victory Ride-G3:

1. Bold Union 94

7. Selva 92

8. Sara Louise 91

4. Sky Haven 90

6. Step Out Smartly 89

3. Reforestation 88

5. Juliet's Spirit 87

1a. All of Her Twist 86

2. Trix in the City 84

Race 8:

One to watch is #8 Moonlark, who is part of that Thoroughbred Legends Racing experiment.  By Gone West, out of a Phone Trick mare, he may be a rare first-out winner from Lukas.  His horses from the TLRStable have been firing, like Dublin.  Phone Trick being on the damside is a real kicker for me.  Plus the mare, Laptop, was a good one.  Otherwise, #1 Bulldogger is the horse to beat, and #4 Kajiwara is right behind him.

Race 9 Ballston Spa Hcp:

1. Rutherienne 100

7. Cocoa Beach 99

2. My Princess Jess 97

3. Closeout 96

6. Captain's Lover 96

8. Salve Germania 94

5. Teamgeist 91

4. Dyna's Lassie 90

I hope Rutherienne, still one of my favorites, destroys this field... and she just might if she has a good ride and clean trip.

Race 10 Ballerina:

4. Indian Blessing 105

3. Tar Heel Mom 98

1. Music Note 97

2. Informed Decision 97

5. Modification 93

6. P.S.U. Grad 90

Tar Heel Mom is the best chance at upsetting the favorite.  Music Note will be coming late, and informed decision needs it to be sloppy in order to run well.  Still, she's a couple lengths slower off the synthetic.  It's Indian Blessing's race to win or lose, but if she can't get by her, the upset chance is Tar Heel Mom.

Race 11 King's Bishop:

3. Capt. Candyman Can 108

2. Munnings 107

8. Big Drama 106

1. Vineyard Haven 101

7. Flat Bold 100

1a. Everyday Heroes 98

5. Despite the Odds 97

4. Not for Silver 96

6. Prince Joshua 94

Munnings has peaked, but is faster than most these.  I think Capt. Candyman Can will be peaking today and get the best of him.  This is THE toughest race of the day.

Race 12 Travers:

3. Warrior's Reward 108

6. Summer Bird 107

4. Quality Road 107

2. Charitable Man 105

7. Kensai 104

5. Our Edge 102

1. Hold Me Back 95

If it's a little wet and this pace sets up as it seems, the one horse who will get first jump (and be fast enough to take on) Quality Road is Warrior's Reward.  I love the way Summer Bird is coming up to the race, as well.  Personally, I doubt Kensai will get the distance, and I think the first four here are bred for the classic races, while the last three are a few lengths behind.  3-6 exacta box should pay well.

1 comment:

D.S. Williamson said...

I've been following your picks with interest and find that we agree a lot of the time. It's good to be able to pit your picks against someone who is building a career out of it. Keep up the good work. D.S. Williamson

Adolphson Thoroughbred Consulting

Washington, D.C.