Sunday, January 25, 2009

Kentucky Quatorze : Kentucky Derby Top 14, as of 1/26/09

1. Break Water Edison
2. Theregoesjojo
3. Old Fashioned
4. I Want Revenge
5. Musket Man
6. Quality Road
7. Poltergeist
8. Flying Pegasus
9. Indygo Mountain
10. Silver City
11. Hello Broadway
12. Dunkirk
13. Shafted
14. Friesan Fire

Knocking on the Door
Chocolate Candy
Trinity Magic
Square Eddie
Tranquil Manner
Pioneerof the Nile
Cliffy's Future
The Pamplemousse
Keep Thinking

Break Water Edison inherits the top spot this week, as his half brother Charitable Man has disappeared from the work-tab since October due to injury. The Pamplemousse normally would not get a nod from me (given how everything went his way at Santa Anita), but I respect anything that hits the track from the Julio Canani barn. He is one of the top five trainers in the United States and must be respected.

Chocolate Candy ran exactly like everyone expected in northern California. He is a talented colt who needs to run faster than he has. His pedigree screams natural dirt, so it is nice to see that he can perform well on the rubber carpet. Patena being purchased by IEAH is a smart move on their behalf. This colt is extremely well-bred, and has a great deal of room for improvement.

The horse who needs to be respected right now is Silver City. This colt ran away with the Dixieland Stakes, making it look like a $30,000 public workout. This colt is no doubt a serious racehorse with a fantastic cruising rate, as well as closing kick. His connections and his critics doubt his stamina, but my gut says he not only will get two turns, but could possibly get 10 furlongs. He is raw talent, and we have only seen a few as impressive as he has been. On the note of his pedigree, he is by Unbridled's Song, the sire of Old Fashioned, out of a Mt. Livermore mare. Mt. Livermore was a sprinter whose progeny were best as milers (Eliza) and sprinters (Housebuster), but Silver City's granddam is bred very similarly to Storm Cat. In this, we see a Storm Bird mare out of a Secretariat-sired full-sister to brilliant turf router Academy Award. Throw in classy Mr. Prospector Blood farther back, and this pedigree is stacked in every direction. This horse is Derby material until I am proven wrong. I would love to see him thrown into the Fountain of Youth at a mile (a nice step up from 5.5 furlongs) and then a two-turn race.

A maiden to be watched intently is Keep Thinking. This colt has raced (very greenly) twice, and has always come running at the end. He has finished second and fourth in his two races (at Belmont and Hollywood). If he puts two and two together, he will be one of the best of his generation. He is by A.P. Indy out of the beautiful Denebola (Storm Cat-Coup de Genie), and was purchased for a session-topping $2.4 Million. Speaking of big sale toppers...

The big movers are $3.7 Million purchase Dunkirk, Theregoesjojo, Musket Man, Poltergeist, and Cliffy's Future. Dunkirk proved to be a colt worth every penny when easily winning his 7 furlong debut at Gulfstream, this week. He is a strapping son of Unbridled's Song out of the galloping Kentucky Oaks winner, Secret Status.

, despite his questionable name, looks like a very talented horse with a very strong finish. He also seems to have much more available than his races have shown us, and I look forward to his tangle with my #5, Musket Man. The latter is undefeated and runs in a very push-button fashion. His sire, Yonaguska, was very much the same way, but this colt looks to be able to outrun his pedigree. The 7 furlongs of the Pasco Stakes win (1/17/09) looked well within his range, as he galloped past the leaders and easily turned back a challenge from the outside.

looked like he finally had a chance to stretch his legs in his first attempt at two turns. He pulled out a huge win and a 95 Beyer, tied for the best two-turn speed figure this year by a sophomore. He is a gorgeous gray colt who looks like a cross between his red-hot sire, Tapit, and his damsire, Relaunch. His running style is much more like the former, but the way he lowers his head and stretches his stride is much more like the Relaunch side of his family. Watch out for this colt trained by Donnie Von Hemel. He has never been off the board in 5 starts and is on the improve. Also, I love his name. (There, I said it.)

Cliffy's Future ran a very unlucky second in an allowance at Aqueduct to a very classy and speedy colt, Pitched Perfectly, who had previously finished fourth to Haynesfield in an uncharacteristically dull performance. Pitched Perfectly is talented, but must show he is more than a speed horse to be genuinely considered. Cliffy's Future, on the other hand, darted from the tail end of the field, went through an opening at the rail and nearly ran down a tough counterpart. He seems to be putting it all together and, as expected with offspring of The Cliff's Edge, is excelling around two turns. Watch out for him in the Gotham.

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