Friday, October 24, 2008

Filly & Mare Turf

The first of the "SERIOUS" races comes in the Filly & Mare Turf. This race is the clash of the mighty grey (or roan)'s, it seems. From Ireland, we have the brilliant 3-time G1 winner, Halfway to Heaven. This filly is absolutely an absolutely gorgeous dark roan/grey and can win from anywhere.

Then we have the American combo of Wait a While and Forever Together. Both of these fillies come off smashing wins and have completely different styles. Wait a While will sit off the pace and "wait a while" until the 5/16 pole. Forever Together will come from out of the clouds and hope the stretch magically lengthens to her liking, or the fillies ahead of her all get stung by bees.

BUT, I am going to go against the grain today. Or, rather, against the grey(s). Today is the day for Mauralakana. This filly has fought all year and deserves to win this race for Christophe Clement. She has won 5 of 7 on all types of going, and will be ready to go one more time. She definitely deserves a chance here, and is my most reliable bet in this race. Wait a While will be tough to catch, Halfway to Heaven will be nearly impossible to out kick, and Forever Together will be arduous to hold off, but I put my money and kind regards on Mauralakana.

Almost more difficult than that is finding which filly will come in fifth place. In a race where I expect they all will finish within 6 lengths of one another, fifth place is no bad showing. To me, I must once again go with the turf master, Christophe Clement. I think he will have his other Charge, the ULTRA-classy Vacare ready to pounce. She may ever run better than we expect her to, so do not be afraid to throw her on top if the race falls apart. She had a poor ride and trip last out, but will get a better chance this time, as Valdivia is a highly underrated judge of pace. If she's in 3rd or 4th after a half mile, she will be tough to beat. Alas, I think she will be out-kicked late (being that 10 furlongs is a furlong beyond her best distance) by the aforementioned four fillies. I'm throwing out Dynaforce, simply because she will be over-bet due to the Mott factor, and will be slightly less of a 'force' on harder ground.

1. (7) Mauralakana 5-1
2. (5) Wait a While 7-2
3. (8) Halfway to Heaven 3-1
4. (3) Forever Together 4-1
5. (2) Vacare 12-1

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