Saturday, October 25, 2008


The young ones get rolling in the Bessemer Trust Juvenile. Like a great deal of the dirt races, you have to look at their pedigrees to see who will run the best.

The first pedigree that pops out at me is West Side Bernie. I believe this colt will be overlooked because of his post position, despite the fact that he has two turn experience and has had outside posts in both races. He will be under-bet.

Bushranger is the class of this field with two G1 wins in Europe and a third place in another. He's a gorgeous bay (see: photo) who is from the Danzig line (through Danetime and Danehill), who should at least be useful on this surface. He drops a few pounds in this race, which will help, and he has Murtagh, who is the Prado of Europe. He places his horses in the best possible spot, and I expect this to be no different.

Square Eddie will be tough if he repeats his last, but this field is a serious one that will give him more of a tussle than the Breeders' Futurity. Yesterday, we saw another Keeneland runaway winner 'lay an egg,' when (my choice) Carriage Trail ran a dull fourth in the Ladies Classic.

Munnings will be a question mark, considering he has yet to run over a synthetic course. He gets Velazquez back, which will help greatly. Last time, in the Champagne, he should have pushed the pace-setting winner, but DeCarlo chose to take him off the pace. I am not convinced he will take to the surface, but I could be wrong.

Lastly, we have Midshipman. This colt is a bit of a grinder, but given the right ride, could be a winner. Gomez picks up the mount, which is a huge plus. Baffert has been developing this well-bred colt progressively, and that leads me to believe he is the little-known 'horse to beat.'

1. (11) Midshipman 6-1
2. (13) West Side Bernie 12-1
3. (12) Bushranger 6-1
4. (4) Square Eddie 3-1
5. (1) Munnings 6-1

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