
Presious Passion is ready to go.
THE PRODIGY:
A LIFETIME STUDYING THE RACING INDUSTRY
1. Mastery 110
The horse to beat. Godolphin has been pointing him to this.
2. Septimus 106
Has been off for a while, but Ballydoyle is strong off a layoff.
3. Nite Light 105
If he gets an easy lead, he loves 14f. Looked great in last two.
4. Father Time 104
Has the closing kick and classy connection to contend.
5. Muhannak 102
Has apparently lost more than a step.
6. Alaazo 101
Love how he's coming into this race, and the distance is his strength.
7. Unusual Suspect 101
A return to his Cougar II win makes him tough. 14f a big question.
8. Eldaafer 100
Amazing bloodlines and a great horse, but has peaked this year.
9. Alcomo 99
On his best day, and if he adapts to the surface, he make the board.
10. Free Fighter 99
Could be a player, but needs to answer a lot of questions.
11. Rising Moon 96
A shipping Dick Dutrow is always tough, but he is merely ordinary.
12. Soldier's Dancer 95
Interesting play if he runs, but he is a step below the best.
13. Bold Chieftain 94
The distance is a question, despite great 9f Cal-Cup win.
14. Cloudy's Knight 102
With his breeding, the Pro-Ride should be perfect, but is running at KEE.
15. Temple City 93
In over his head. But, only slightly.
Rank Horse ASP Comment
1. Rip Van Winkle 115
It scares me how confident O'Brien is in this one.
2. Sea the Stars 115
The class.
3. Quality Road 113
Love him on the synthetic, pedigree-wise.
4. Zenyatta 112.5
Will be coming.
5. Mastercraftsman 112
Slight edge, speed and pedigree-wise over the big favorite.
6. Summer Bird 111
Always trying; a cut below the top 5.
7. Richard's Kid 110
Improving and in the right barn.
8. Rail Trip 110
If he returns to his summer speed, he's tough.
9. Tiago 110
Will. Run. Well.
10. Einstein 109
Fresh and dangerous off a 9 week break.
11. Furthest Land 109
Loved his race and his # in the last one.
12. Gio Ponti 108
Good on Pro-Ride; knows how to win; loves 10f.
13. Colonel John 108
Better on turf.
14. Gone Astray 108
Sneaky good runner; getting better.
15. Mine That Bird 107
Great closing kick may love Pro-Ride
16. Parading 106.5
Always there; better at 9 than 10f.
17. Chocolate Candy 106.5
A cut below the best.
18. Misremembered 106
Getting better, but is probably better suited to the Dirt Mile.
19. Regal Ransom 105
Could set the pace and hang on for a piece of it.
20. Tres Borrachos 105
I could actually repeat the above sentence for this one, too.
21. Awesome Gem 102
Returning to great form; is better in slop than synthetics.
22. Nite Light 104.5
Loved his last race in the slop at Hawthorne.
23. Bullsbay 104
Off an injury; could be a nice wild card.
24. Macho Again 104
Looks to have peaked.
25. It's a Bird 104
Classy, but too many question marks.
3. Rachel Alexandria 112
6. Asiatic Boy 108
4. Macho Again 107
5. It's a Bird 106
2. Bullsbay 105
7. Past the Point 104
1a. Cool Coal Man 103
1. Da Tara 98
I expect Rachel to bounce slightly out of that brilliant win, last out. Still, she will be nearly impossible to beat if she gets into a nice stalking rhythm. The big danger is Asiatic Boy. He has proven to be a ridiculously talented individual who can stalk and burst away from a field. His UAE Derby win was more than impressive, and he looks to win if she does not. Macho Again and It's a Bird have been aimed for this race, but I think Macho Again is the better bet, being that he is second-race-off-layoff. Bullsbay could repeat his last race and win or place second in this race, but I doubt it. I think he likes the track, but is in a much tougher race this time. Past the Point is now, apparently, a closer. This will help him today, but I have yet to see him beat anyone that wasn't easy to outrun or run down. Da Tara and Cool Coal Man are within a couple lengths of these on their best days, but I doubt they will be able to repeat their best feats here.
5. Riley Tucker 106
2. Kodiak Kowboy 106
4. Peace Chant 103
6. Gold Trippi 102
1. Pyro 101
7. Driven by Success 99
10. My Pal Charlie 98
12. Keep Laughing 97
11. True Quality 96
9. Law Enforcement 95
8. Multitude 93
3. Ready's Echo 91
My Pal Charlie is a better 8-9 furlong horse. He will be tough, but is still in over his head. In this race, with it being this deep, I must say that the two horses that stick out to me are Kodiak Kowboy and Riley Tucker. True, I think Peace Chant, Gold Trippi and Pyro will be right there, but the two who seem to be perfectly suited to this race are the aforementioned. Of the two, Riley Tucker is a very hot longshot. Trained by my favorite trainer, Baffert, and ridden by my favorite jockey, Prado, it is hard to go against him. Peace Chant is a tough one, as we do not know, YET, how good he is. He has had too many physical issues to show it. O'Neill has proven he can win Saratoga races (see: Maryfield), which helps his cause. He is the best-bred sprinter in the field, by brilliant dual-surface miler War Chant, out of champion sprinter Safely Kept. What a race!
Much Rejoicing, though not trained by someone known for his juveniles, is a brilliantly bred filly by Distorted Humor, out of Soaring Softly, a champion turf mare (who had a decent dirt pedigree).
Race 3:
#1, Great Crusade, if he drops back and makes one run, could prove a great bet at 20-1. His mother, Victory USA, was a really talented runner. His father, Awesome Again, is known as a late developing sire. #2, Eagle Strike, comes from one of the best families in the country. He is by the Capote mare, True Flare, who has produced a great deal of dirt stakes winners. He is the horse to beat.
Race 4 , Lure Stakes:
If it stays on the turf, and is wet, #9 is the horse to beat. He's trained by Saratoga danger, Mott, and won last out under these same conditions when it was yielding. Leparoux is the last piece that makes me look past everyone else.
Race 6:
If it goes off the turf, #3 The Roundhouse is the horse to beat. He has never had a chance to go 9 furlongs (which is what it'll be on the dirt), and is bred to love it.
Race 7 , Victory Ride-G3:
1. Bold Union 94
7. Selva 92
8. Sara Louise 91
4. Sky Haven 90
6. Step Out Smartly 89
3. Reforestation 88
5. Juliet's Spirit 87
1a. All of Her Twist 86
2. Trix in the City 84
Race 8:
One to watch is #8 Moonlark, who is part of that Thoroughbred Legends Racing experiment. By Gone West, out of a Phone Trick mare, he may be a rare first-out winner from Lukas. His horses from the TLRStable have been firing, like Dublin. Phone Trick being on the damside is a real kicker for me. Plus the mare, Laptop, was a good one. Otherwise, #1 Bulldogger is the horse to beat, and #4 Kajiwara is right behind him.
Race 9 Ballston Spa Hcp:
1. Rutherienne 100
7. Cocoa Beach 99
2. My Princess Jess 97
3. Closeout 96
6. Captain's Lover 96
8. Salve Germania 94
5. Teamgeist 91
4. Dyna's Lassie 90
I hope Rutherienne, still one of my favorites, destroys this field... and she just might if she has a good ride and clean trip.
Race 10 Ballerina:
4. Indian Blessing 105
3. Tar Heel Mom 98
1. Music Note 97
2. Informed Decision 97
5. Modification 93
6. P.S.U. Grad 90
Tar Heel Mom is the best chance at upsetting the favorite. Music Note will be coming late, and informed decision needs it to be sloppy in order to run well. Still, she's a couple lengths slower off the synthetic. It's Indian Blessing's race to win or lose, but if she can't get by her, the upset chance is Tar Heel Mom.
Race 11 King's Bishop:
3. Capt. Candyman Can 108
2. Munnings 107
8. Big Drama 106
1. Vineyard Haven 101
7. Flat Bold 100
1a. Everyday Heroes 98
5. Despite the Odds 97
4. Not for Silver 96
6. Prince Joshua 94
Munnings has peaked, but is faster than most these. I think Capt. Candyman Can will be peaking today and get the best of him. This is THE toughest race of the day.
Race 12 Travers:
3. Warrior's Reward 108
6. Summer Bird 107
4. Quality Road 107
2. Charitable Man 105
7. Kensai 104
5. Our Edge 102
1. Hold Me Back 95
If it's a little wet and this pace sets up as it seems, the one horse who will get first jump (and be fast enough to take on) Quality Road is Warrior's Reward. I love the way Summer Bird is coming up to the race, as well. Personally, I doubt Kensai will get the distance, and I think the first four here are bred for the classic races, while the last three are a few lengths behind. 3-6 exacta box should pay well.
Rachel Alexandra worries me. She just peaked. Her last two races were of astounding brilliance. It's that kind of bold speed that you can't keep running, no matter how good a trainer is at honing it. Curlin had three brilliant wins and should have had more of a break to get him back to that point, but he didn't. He kept on running and racing, and slowly but surely becoming less impressive, despite being victorious.
Granted, Dubai can take some starch out, but that is why you need more than three months off. You need 6 months, minimum. The only horses I have seen exit Dubai as better animals were Victory Gallop and Formal Gold. I cannot explain those horses. Perhaps they were the leggy, light types that ship well and don't turn a hair. Or, in Formal Gold's case, perhaps he was just rounding into form and about to turn into a freak on us. Either way, they are the exception. All in all, I would rest her a few weeks and run her in the Jockey Club Gold Cup to close out her year.
Zenyatta, once again, showed that she doesn't care for the synthetic as much as people would like to think. She is bred distinctly for regular dirt. Street Cry's offspring always handle the synthetics, but excel on the dirt. For those of you who think that she won't be able to catch a horse like Rachel Alexandra in a dirt race with innately speed-favoring tendencies, think again. It's true, personally I think Rachel Alexandra on her best day is better than Zenyatta's best, but it's a lot closer on a dirt track, and her owners are stupid for not sending her to the surface on wh
ich she looked her absolute best (her devastating Apple Blossom and subsequent highest career Beyer of 110).
Commentator finally bit the big one. He was slowing down, so it is good to see him go out in-the-money at Saratoga. He ran
his race, but he has yet to compete at the same level of his Mass Cap win from last year. Live and let die, I say. He has had enough rests and comebacks to know that we actually have seen his best, and he falls into the enviable category of one of the few to break the 120 Beyer mark in more than one two-turn event.
This gelding really was talented. He had that cruising rate that would burn others into the ground, but always was tough on the horse, himself. High cruising horses have brute muscle strength, and that wreaks havoc on the rest of the body. This is one of the reasons he was seen so sparsely throughout his career.
His best race, in my opinion, was his first Whitney win versus Saint Liam. He not only had to blitz fractions, but he had to fight to win the race on a track that often will favor a horse with Saint Liam's mid-pack style.
He was a fast mother, and I look forward to seeing what happens now that he is gone. Who will be the next horse running Candy Ride-style Beyers.
Bing Crosby
1. Zensational 107
6. Talkin to Mom Roo 103
4. Delta Storm 99
5. Hurry Up Austin 94
2. Bahama Breeze 93
3. Global Hunter 89
Talkin to Mom Roo looks like a very sly bet here. I can easily see Delta Storm and Bahama Breeze taking the race to Zensational to disallow the feisty sophomore an easy lead. If the soften the big favorite up at all, Roo is the way to go. He has actually run equally as fast as Zensational, but the difference is we have yet to see how fast the Zen is. Best Bets: Zensational & Talkin to Mom Roo.
Test
2. Cat Moves 98
6. Flashing 98
5. First Passage 93
4. Heart Ashley 90
7. Reforestation 89
8. All of Her Twist 88
1. Pretty Prolific 87
3. Olde Glamour 82
Flashing had the heat put on her in the Mother Goose, and that 9 furlong sprint should have her wound pretty tightly for this race. I think she is the best bet to beat Cat Moves. Otherwise, Cat Moves is a tough filly to beat. Tony Dutrow comes from the school of Frankel, and that means that their horses run at a top-level race-after-race... not just one huge peak performance. First Passage wins this if she repeats her last race, but I doubt a 10 length jump in her last race will not beget a bounce. Even with the bounce, she's really well-bred and her sire-given grit and overall class will keep her near the front at the end. Heart Ashley needs to learn to rate to win this, and the rest are very closely bunched in talent. Best Bets: Cat Moves & First Passage.
Whitney
4. Macho Again 108
7. Commentator 107
1. Smooth Air 106
6. Dry Martini 103
3. Bullsbay 100
5. Tizway 98
I can see Commentator going out to his customary lead, but being run down by the relentless Saratoga-loving Macho Uno. This horse always seems to beat me when I count him out, so let's hope some faith helps me. Smooth Air and Dry Martini will be coming, as well. I do fear that Commentator has lost a step. Best Bets: Macho Again & Smooth Air.
Secretariat
9. Black Bear Island 96
10. Giant Oak 94
1a. Driving Snow 92
4. Laureate Conductor 92
5. Oil Man 91
7. Take the Points 91
8. Reb 89
3. Proceed Bee 86
6. Quite a Handful 85
1. Cliffy's Future 80
2. Hoosier Kingdom 76
Black Bear Island, if he runs like his Dante win (at 10.5 furlongs), wins this. Giant Oak, if he doesn't regress again, runs well, and Driving Snow looks to be something special. Clement is always dangerous at this meet, so watch out for Laureate Conductor. Oil Man, Take the Points, and Reb are great bets to be in there for the exotics, but none seem to have a stronger punch than the previous four. Best bets: Black Bear Island and Laureate Conductor.
Beverly D
5. Mad About You 101
7. Dynaforce 100
1. Alnadana 99
2. Pure Clan 99
4. Black Mamba 98
8. Denomnation 96
3. Points of Grace 95
6. Tizaqueena 90
Really tough race. If the real Dynaforce shows up, she can dispose of Tizaqueena on the corner and open up on this field. Mad About You, if she returns to her form of last year, has the class to draw away from this field, and Pure Clan & Black Mamba will be coming, no matter what. The safest bets are Pure Clan and Mad About You.
Arlington Million
8. Cima de Triomphe 109
6. Gio Ponti 108
7. Gloria de Campeao 107
1. Einstein 105
4. Stotsfold 104
3. Just As Well 102
2. Presious Passion 101
5. Mr. Sidney 99
9. Recapture the Glory 90
Cima ran fourth to the top 3 turf horses in the world in his last race. Enough said. Gio Ponti is going to be there no matter what, but I think he may have peaked in his last race when winning easily at a distance that should have been slightly out of his range. Gloria de Campeao loves the left-handed course and distance, and will be sitting in the proverbial catbird seat. I love Pascal Bary, his trainer, and respect the hell out of his ability to ship winners over here. Einstein is always a good bet for in-the-money, but his numbers are a length or two too slow for the top three. Best Bets: Gio Ponti and Gloria de Campeao.
From the upcoming Saratoga Select Sale:
My top 4 hips to watch for this sale are as follows:
1.) Hip 7 Ch. f. 08 (Henny Hughes-Sass Me*Carson City) (4/30)
This daughter of the first crop of speedster Henny Hughes (by Hennessy), comes from a sire who could carry his speed around one turn up to 8.5 furlongs (second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Belmont), while coming from a dam whose half sisters are two of the fastest female sprinters we have seen in quite some time: Madcap Escapade and Dubai Escapade. The former was able to carry her speed up to a mile around two turns, and was also a daughter of Hennessy, making this filly a very close relation. Add to this the bold precociousness and damsire prowess of Carson City (arguably the in the best three juvenile sires of our time, along with Meadowlake and Phone Trick... and he is also the damsire of Barbaro), and you have a filly who looks like she will absolutely fly. And, fly early.
2. Hip 66 B.c.08 (Mr. Greeley-Angel's Nest*Storm Cat) (3/14)
Mr. Greeley always shocks me with his quality as a sire. He was a stellar sprinter/miler his entire career, but never flashed the kind of brilliance that hinted at his chances as a stallion. He tends to beget good milers with high cruising rates, on all three surfaces. Add to this the best-bred dam in the sale, Angel's Nest (Storm Cat-Miesque), and you have a colt who is bred to run on anything, and be a superior miler. Miesque has given her offspring the same brilliant turn of foot that she had, and Storm Cat adds speed, grit, and classic brilliance to his offspring. This colt should be the sale topper, but Mr. Greeley still is not as flashy as the A.P. Indys and Unbridled's Songs.
3. Hip 110 DB.f.08 (Giant's Causeway-Dancethruthestorm*Thunder Gulch) (2/15)(ONT)
This filly has Queen's Plate written all over her. By Giant's Causeway, from the great Sam-Son family of Dance Smartly, with the endurance and classic grittiness of Thunder Gulch added. This filly will run on everything short of broken glass. Enough said.
4. Hip 221 Gr.c.08 (Unbridled's Song-Pure Symmetry*Storm Cat/Serena's Song)(3/15)
What has to be the second-best bred colt in the sale is this son of Unbridled's Song, out of Pure Symmetry (Storm Cat-Serena's Song). Not only was Serena's Song an amazing racemare, but she has passed on her genes to produce multiple G1 and G2 winners. If you add in the Unbridled's Song influence, you have a colt with a similar genetic makeup as MGSW Harlington (Unbridled-Serena's Song), but with more speed with the addition of Storm Cat, and more scope (Trolley Song/Caro). This colt has classic distance and tactical speed written all over him.