Kentucky Quatorze: My Top 14 Derby Prospects

Ranking / Previous Week’s Ranking / Horse
1. 2. Break Water Edison
2. 5. Old Fashioned
3. 3. Charitable Man
4. 1. Flying Pegasus
5. Silver City
6. Quality Road
7. 7. Regal Ransom
8. 7. Indygo Mountain
9. 8. Royal Vindication
10. 9. Hello Broadway
11. 4. Skipadate
12. 10. Trinity Magic
13. 11. Midshipman
14. 12. Capt Candyman Can

On the Edge:
15. 13. Vineyard Haven
16. 14. Well Positioned

The story this week was breakout performances by horses who looked primed to do so. Old Fashioned made everyone take a second glance after his tour de force in the Remsen. I see a great deal of potential in this colt, but I do see his damsire, Meadowlake, as a liability. Meadowlake is notorious for young runners, especially juveniles, who develop early and very rarely improve after the midpoint of their sophomore years. To be fair, Unbridled’s Song’s offspring do well at younger ages as well. This makes me wonder if, despite his few races, he is simply more physically developed than his counterparts. On the other hand, we have another new gray superstar budding in Silver City, who flew Alysheba’s famed colors to a sharp victory at Churchill. Watch out for this colt and his stablemate, Indygo Mountain. Another big debut was Quality Road in an Aqueduct maiden. This Jimmy Jerkins-trained colt is beautifully bred with Elusive Quality on top and a full sister to feisty champion, Ajina, on the bottom. Ajina was a talented, tough stalker who could put up some big numbers. She was also a great deal more aggressive than her stablemate, Escena. Perhaps that is why she was a bit less consistent. In this, do not be surprised if Quality Road is equally as spotty.

I am still waiting to see what will come of the Nashua’s top three (Break Water Edison, Hello Broadway, Royal Vindication), but all three bode pedigrees that force us to take a second look at their chances in the Big Dance. I do see Break Water Edison developing really well in the future. His sire, Lemon Drop Kid, improved with age. Also, he has some great classic influence with Risen Star, Secretariat, and Ack Ack on his damside. It is also a good thing that they are giving him some time off, as he ran a great deal already this year (five times), including a quick two-week wheeling after a gritty second in the Saratoga Special.

I am still waiting to hear about Regal Ransom, but I am still a big fan of this colt with a wonderful high cruising rate. Hopefully he is still here in the U.S. and not training in the U.A.E. with the rest of Darley’s first string. I get the feeling that Charitable Man will be a late-comer in the sophomore Derby trials, as he is slated to return to training in early January.

Many of you may be wondering who in the heck Flying Pegasus is. He’s the tough once-beaten colt who finished second in the Futurity to Charitable Man. He showed so much talent that day, that I have to keep him in my top tier. He has a beautiful energy-saving stride and a great cruising rate. Do not be surprised to see Skipadate move his very game efforts from grass to dirt. He is bred for the dirt and has his sire’s signature high knee action. Trinity Magic has shown some impressive numbers, but simply has to prove that he can do it around two turns this week in the Delta Jackpot. Midshipman and Vineyard Haven are low on the list because he is going to Dubai. Captain Candyman Can ran gamely, but must run like less of a miler and more of a stayer if he is to ‘stay’ on this list. The other two colts who finished with him in the KJC, Giant Oak and winner Beethoven, both failed to truly impress me. Let us see them do it again and in faster numbers. Lastly, Well Positioned is still on here because I believe he will jump up and impress more people than myself. He is bred to get better with age and love a distance of ground.

Here’s to the Derby Trail!

Charity Break

Back in the summer I was touting two juveniles that I thought could be huge threats in subsequent months and (possibly) years. Both of these sons of Lemon Drop Kid have made their marks.

I do not believe Charitable Man, the winner of the Grade 2 Futurity Stakes, and Break Water Edison, winner of the Grade 3 Nashua Stakes, will have gone by the wayside when we recollect the crop of 2006. The former will be a force if he is healthy in 2009, and the latter will most likely win the Remsen this weekend. Let the games begin...my current Kentucky Derby Fabulous 14:

1. Flying Pegasus
2. Break Water Edison
3. Charitable Man
4. Skipadate
5. Old Fashioned
6. Regal Ransom
7. Indygo Mountain
8. Royal Vindication
9. Hello Broadway
10. Trinity Magic
11. Midshipman
12. Capt Candyman Can
13. Vineyard Haven
14. Well Positioned

Flying Comments

When horses run like Commentator, we are reminded of how well an animal can perform when given the time to develop. He may not show the bald speed that he used to, but Commentator definitely runs like a horse with the balance of maturity and innate pace. For a horse who, in human years, is a 42+ year old running against 24+ year olds, he showed us brilliance can flourish with patience. As far as his last two wins, including Saturday's Mass 'Cap romp, he has proven that he may possibly be a Classic contender, able to keep his brilliant pace over a distance of ground. In this, the synthetics may help him get the extra furlong.

On the other side of the age spectrum, it was fantastic to see my highly touted Charitable Man win like a more mature horse in the Futurity last weekend at Belmont. He runs a lot like his father, Lemon Drop Kid, and looks to be in great hands. Unlike most people, I like the jump into two turns from a seven-furlong race- but only if the horse's pedigree screams distance. Being by a Belmont Stakes winning sire, out of a Halo/Seeking the Gold cross on his damside- he should have no issues negotiating 8.5 furlongs.

A horse to watch out for next time he runs is runner up, Flying Pegasus. This colt is by Fusaichi Pegasus out of multiple stakes winner (4 of her 5 wins were stakes, in 13 starts), Lilly Capote. Born in 1992, this filly had the misfortune of being among the throng of great fillies of that year (with the two best being in the same barn with her: Serena's Song and Flanders). Watch as Lilly Capote gives a great showing of herself in what would become an epic race. This filly, of great scope, finally meshed well with a stallion when she produced Flying Pegasus, who looks like he has a huge future.

The Fantastic Fourteen: Juveniles


1. Flying Pegasus Can rate and is bred to be a brilliant young horse.
2. Charitable Man Simply the fastest numbers and got the better of #1 when drafting off his pace.
3. Regal Ransom This once-raced colt ran a big number with bulldog-like tenacity. Will also LOVE synthetics.
4. Azul Leon If he is healthy, he is by far the best of the west.
5. Midshipman It's a shame for Baffert to lose one; going to be difficult to beat around two turns in the Norfolk.
6. Cribnote His debut and impressive botched race in the Hopeful make you think that he (though bred to be a miler) could be a really special type.
7. Coronet of a Baron Always there, with natural speed, and tough to beat- but he's been beaten by a superior animal in his last two.
8. Run Away and Hide A crafty type with a push-button style that could stretch out beyond a mile if trained correctly.
9. Brave Victory This huge animal lopes along but runs impressively in each race. He was second to Regal Ransom and then came back yesterday (9/20) to win impressively over 7 panels at Belmont.
10. Terrain Had his race completely taken away twice in the Arlington-Washington Futurity, and deserved the win. He has fast numbers and is from the family of Unbridled with talented juvenile Sky Mesa on top. Should improve around two turns and can run on anything.
11. Break Water Edison His last race was back too soon, and that was evident in his performance, but it will help him next out around two turns. Watch out for this son of the ever-improving Lemon Drop Kid.
12. Vineyard Haven Ran a slow number and had everything his way. He has two things going for him: Frankel as his trainer and he is an absolutely gorgeous gray/roan.
13. Keep Thinking This is the best-bred two year old I have seen, by A.P. Indy out of Denebola (French classic winner) who was shuffled back and swept past all but one when second behind Royal Vindication (who barely didn't make the list) this week at Belmont. He will be heard from soon.
14. Munnings This expensive colt ran well despite a dwelt start in the Hopeful. Pletcher will get the best out of him, but I'm not yet convinced that optimum will be able to compete with the top five here.

Happy Racing everyone.