An Updated Kentucky Quatorze

1. Theregoesjojo
2. Old Fashioned
3. I Want Revenge
4. Break Water Edison
5. Quality Road
6. Poltergeist
7. Flying Pegasus
8. Indygo Mountain
9. Silver City
10. Hello Broadway
11. Musket Man
12. Shafted
13. Friesan Fire
14. Pioneerof the Nile

Thoughts from last weekend:

Nicanor looked good and strong until something obviously went awry with him. I was worried that he would have the action of an ordinary horse, but the way he ran was exceptional until the incident. Watch out next time.

Gulfstream was a sandbox of a deep surface, with nothing moving from the back of the pack. This should especially make (my pick in the Donn) Great Hunter's run look that much better. He and Capt Candyman Can were two of the few horses I saw making up any ground on that course.

In the Hutcheson (which I am so glad that it is back in its traditional late January position), Capt Candyman Can proved once again that he's a very, very classy miler. I will be very surprised if he stretcheds beyond 8.5 furlongs, but I am often wrong. Candy Ride, his sire (of whom you know that I am a big fan), looked the same way and could run up to 10 furlongs. He has his sire's fast, efficient action, but his female family is laden with sprinters and milers.

The real story of this race was Hello Broadway. He becomes a huge shot after running on the lead, and obviously being a closer. What I liked was his grit in defeat. He was out of place and still ran credibly. I doubt Broken Vow's sire stamina influence, but I'll give this colt a lot of credit. Something was obviously amiss with my (previously #1 Derby pick) Break Water Edison. Nothing has surfaced in the press, but I am sure something was wrong. Even before, when running poorly, there was a huge excuse for him. I'll keep him in my top tier.

C.S. Silk, who ran one of the most impressive juvenile filly races last year, looked once again like a horse who disliked the track in the Forward Gal. Perhaps it was that she was stuck back in an unfavorable position, but I am prone to think that she likes it on the lead on a synthetic course. Frolic's Dream proved once again that under 7 furlongs is her turf in the division. That is, until she rematches with my projected best filly sprinter of 2009, Elusive Heat, who ran off the screen on January 29th.

In the Holy Bull, Beethoven ran credibly, but I worry still about his endurance capacity. The race was one of the more boring Derby preps I have ever seen, but there were a few horses who are definitely dangerous next out. Most notably, West Side Bernie, who kept coming, despite the distance being too far too soon.

The Donn Handicap was nearly as boring as the Holy Bull, with a miler wearing down a sub-par pacemaker. As mentioned, Great Hunter ran a credible race, and Einstein proved again that he is not a fan of Gulfstream. He needs more to grab ahold of, and that course was obviously very loose and slow.

Kip Deville proved once again that American turf horses are sub-par, when winning at what is not his optimal distance. He looks about 2 lengths slower at 9 furlongs, and his number reflected it. Court Vision, who has always been a bit overrated, ran well, but was poorly ridden. He should have been dropped to the tail of the field and given a wide run. The big disappointment was that Red Rocks, who has the best kick in the field, did not show up. He ran like a bothered horse, but will be tough next out if all is well.

On the west coast, the beautiful Jibboom ran a better race than she got credit for when being passed by her outstanding stablemate, Ventura, but digging in to chase her hole and lose by a length. They drew off from the field and really put on a nice show of talent.

Top 25 Stallion Values

Top Stallion Values
Stallion
Location / Fee / Farm / Sire and Damsire

1. Candy Ride
KY $12,500 Hill 'n' Dale Ride the Rails/Candy Stripes
2. Benchmark
CA $4,000 River's Edge Farm Alydar/Danzig
3. Hat Trick
KY $12,500 Walmac Sunday Silence/Lost Code
4. Hurrican Run
IRE $25,963 Coolmore Montjeu/Serumu
5. Dehere
KY $20,000 Coolmore Deputy Minister/Secretariat
6. Louis Quatorze
MD $6,000 Murmur Farm Sovereign Dancer/On To Glory
7. Doneraile Court
KY $7,500 Stonewall Seattle Slew/Stop the Music
8. Skimming
CAN $3,253 Pacific Stud Nureyev/Lyphard
9. Discreet Cat
KY $25,000 Darley Forestry/Private Account
10. Cougar Cat
KY $5,000 Richland Hills Storm Cat/General Meeting
11. Easing Along
KY $10,000 Claiborne Storm Cat/Alydar
12. War Front
KY $12,500 Claiborne Danzig/Rubiano
13. Repent
KY $7,500 Vinery Louis Quatorze/Cipayo
14. Ivan Denisovich
IRE $5,193 Coolmore Danehill/Kris S.
15. Eavesdropper
PA $5,000 Walmac PA Kingmambo/Secretariat
16. Mingun
KY $5,000 Lane's End A.P. Indy/Nureyev
17. Lion Hearted
MD $5,000 Northview S.S. Storm Cat/Alydar
18. Stephen Got Even
KY $7,500 Lane's End A.P. Indy/Cox's Ridge
19. Seeking the Dia
KY $10,000 Hill 'n' Dale Storm Cat/Seeking the Gold
20. Political Force
KY $12,500 Claiborne Unbridled's Song/Glitterman
21. Astronomer Royal
FR $10,385 Reboursiere/Montaigu Danzig/Easy Goer
22. Jeremy
IRE $10,385 Irish National Stud Danehill Dancer/Arazi
23. Good Reward
KY $10,000 Three Chimneys Storm Cat/Seeking the Gold
24. Invasor
KY $28,000 Shadwell Candy Stripes/Interprete*ARG
25. Macho Uno
KY $25,000 Adena Springs Holy Bull/Blushing Groom

Your $600 Worth

There was one eye-catching performance this weekend, and it was not from any winners. In Louisiana, Calder-based Big Drama won a battle with West Side Bernie for the lucrative win at Delta Downs. Though both were impressive, and both ran great numbers, the most impressive race was from third-place finisher Stimulus Plan. Launching his bid from about 15 lengths off the pace after a quarter, the Jump Start colt ran to within two lengths at the wire. More impressive was that Delta Downs has a very short stretch that all but disallows any closer from running a winning race.

If you examine Stimulus Plan's pedigree, it is no wonder that he has improved with both age and distance. His sire, Jump Start, was a star on the rise as a two-year-old until he was prematurely injured and sent to stud. Called one of D. Wayne Lukas' best juveniles ever, this son of A.P. Indy was an impressive winner of the Saratoga Special, as well as runner up behind one of the two-year-olds I have ever seen, Officer, in the Champagne. Out of a Storm Cat half sister to Miswaki, this stallion is bred to produce anything on any surface that can go a distance of ground. There is not a great deal of electrifying speed on this side, but there is on his dam's side.

Stimulus Plan's dam, Dutchess Alexandra, is by Judge Smells out of Courting Days by Bold Lad. First, it must be said that Courting Days is impeccably bred, herself. By Bold Lad, the champion juvenile and second best horse (behind Secretariat) ever produced by Bold Ruler, out of the Hail to Reason mare, Admiring, she was bred to run long and run often. Add to that the speed of Judge Smells, an undefeated pace-setting winner of the Hollywood Prevue Stakes from the blatantly speed-laden In Reality line, and you have a nice balance of a colt who will run better with age, distance, and experience. Oddly enough, there are also a great deal of horses with many starts in Stimulus Plans' pedigree, which is refreshing to see with the current fragile state of racing.

1. 1. 2. Break Water Edison
2. 2. 5. Old Fashioned
3. 3. 3. Charitable Man
4. 4. 1. Flying Pegasus
5. 5. Silver City
6. 6. Quality Road
7. 7. 7. Regal Ransom
8. 8. 7. Indygo Mountain
9. Stimulus Plan
10. 9. 8. Royal Vindication
11. 10. 9. Hello Broadway
12. West Side Bernie
13. 13. 11. Midshipman
14. 14. 12. Capt Candyman Can

This colt has raced four times and never finished worse than third. I expect big things and catapult him to #9 on my Kentucky Quatorze: Top 14 Derby Prospects. Runner-up in the Delta Jackpot, West Side Bernie, ran well enough to merit moving into the #12 spot, while Big Drama has to prove that he can win a similar race over a longer stretch and distance. Any colt by Montbrook out of a Notebook mare is new Florida speed on top of old florida sprinter speed. Any ability to go two turns is an influence from Damascus, Tom Fool, and Prince John far back in his pedigree enough to only take him 'but so far.' Also, his stride is very much a miler's stride, while those of the previously mentioned colts make us want to see them go longer.

Coming up we have the CashCall/Hollywood Futurity, as our last big juvenile race of the year. This race is being hyped as a clash between Zayat Stables' highly touted Pioneerof the Nile, whose name makes me cringe, and Sid and Jenny Craig Estate's Chocolate Candy, a son of my favorite freshman stallion, Candy Ride. The latter won the Real Quiet Stakes at the course and distance, but as a student of the game, I must say that this race is most likely going to be won by a newcomer, as neither of the top two have run numbers that make them anywhere in the vacinity of the term, 'standout.' Watch out for anyone that renowned late-developing juvenile trainers such as Neil Drysdale, Richard Mandella, Eoin Harty, Bob Baffert, or Doug O'Neill throw in this race.

A Sweet Departure

Despite the floundering economy’s affect on the racing industry, I remain with a smile on my face. Still, there are many horses running who are exciting and interesting. I would like to focus today on a stallion that a lot of people did not expect to do well, except me. His name is Candy Ride, and he is showing signs of very big things.

In 2002, Candy ride began his career in South America where he won three races in amazing style, including a one-mile world record in an unworldly 1:31. That is not a typo. This horse was serious business. He was snatched up by Sid and Jenny Craig and brought to America to be under the watchful eye of Ron McAnally in 2003. In the U.S. he would go on to win his first start impressively, an allowance, and then ran away much the best in the grassy All-American(G2) at Hollywood Park. This was no small feat, considering he beat one of the best milers of the last ten years, Special Ring, at his own game in the process. His winning Beyer Speed Figure was approximately a 107.

Next came an ambitious challenge for the bay son of Ride the Rails- a handicapping behemoth named Medaglia d’Oro. At the time, Medaglia d’Oro was the top-ranked older runner in America. With Jerry Bailey in the irons, Medaglia d’Oro dictated the Pacific Classic for seven furlongs until a patient Julie Krone let out what must have scared Bailey out of his stirrups. Candy Ride not only took the race to Medaglia d’Oro with over three furlongs remaining, but he waltzed past him with 3/16 to go and won easily. In a four horse race, left in the dust was Fleetstreet Dancer, who would go on to win the $2.4million Japan Cup Dirt, and Milwaukee Brew, who won consecutive Santa Anita Handicaps. Candy Ride won with a massive Beyer of 124, and did it in an effortlessly perfect style that I have only seen one horse come close to since. That horse was Ghostzapper, a mere one year later. What a match up that would have been! Alas, that’s a story for another day.

Candy Ride is the offspring of Ride the Rails, who had the misfortune of bumping heads with a very difficult crop of 1991. He beat the champion, Dehere, in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park, then went on to clash with Halo’s Image, Holy Bull, Go for Gin and Patton. In an extremely talented group of Florida-based sophomores, he held his own. He was bred for the dangerous combination of endurance and closing speed. Cryptoclearance, his sire, is famous for providing horses with a vicious turn of foot (e.g. Victory Gallop, Traitor, Crypto Star, Volponi, Strategic Maneuver, Cryptocloser and Millennium Wind) and was famous, himself, for looping entire fields with an effortless stride. He definitely passed that fluidity on to Candy Ride. Candy Ride’s female side is Candy Stripes/Blushing Groom brilliance on top of Argentinian grit. What that leaves you with, if the chemicals react perfectly, is a fluid, fast-closing, brilliant, high-cruising, gritty colt. It worked perfectly.

Candy Ride was unlucky enough to injure himself before he would have to tangle with his last expected hurdles: Congaree and Pleasantly Perfect. Those two would go on to win the last two big races for older horses, the Breeders’ Cup Classic and Cigar Mile. Though brilliant, I am fairly certain Candy Ride would have beaten both. He retired with a perfect 6-for-6 and an empty feeling of what might have been left in his awed fans, including myself.

Now a stallion, his first offspring are hitting the ground running, despite him not getting a great deal of commercial attention. What I find interesting about him is that his breeding works perfectly with the two most prolific American Stallions: Storm Cat and A.P. Indy. Actually, his current big runner (Capt Candyman Can) is out of a Storm Cat mare. With the abundance of those two lines out there, paired with Candy Ride’s fantastic outcross, I expect HUGE things in the future for this stallion.