BC Marathon rankings

1. Mastery 110

The horse to beat. Godolphin has been pointing him to this.

2. Septimus 106

Has been off for a while, but Ballydoyle is strong off a layoff.

3. Nite Light 105

If he gets an easy lead, he loves 14f. Looked great in last two.

4. Father Time 104

Has the closing kick and classy connection to contend.

5. Muhannak 102

Has apparently lost more than a step.

6. Alaazo 101

Love how he's coming into this race, and the distance is his strength.

7. Unusual Suspect 101

A return to his Cougar II win makes him tough. 14f a big question.

8. Eldaafer 100

Amazing bloodlines and a great horse, but has peaked this year.

9. Alcomo 99

On his best day, and if he adapts to the surface, he make the board.

10. Free Fighter 99

Could be a player, but needs to answer a lot of questions.

11. Rising Moon 96

A shipping Dick Dutrow is always tough, but he is merely ordinary.

12. Soldier's Dancer 95

Interesting play if he runs, but he is a step below the best.

13. Bold Chieftain 94

The distance is a question, despite great 9f Cal-Cup win.

14. Cloudy's Knight 102

With his breeding, the Pro-Ride should be perfect, but is running at KEE.

15. Temple City 93

In over his head. But, only slightly.

BC Mile rankings

1. Goldikova 112
Extremely tough. Enough said.
2. Zacinto 110
Moving quickly in the right direction.
3. Ferneley 109
The most overlooked horse here. The best of the Americans.
4. Delegator 108
This has been his focus, and he had a nice break in the Summer.
5. Sight Winner 107
If they bring him, his HK Mile form is good enough to make top 3.
6. Justenuffhumor 106
On a hard surface, he will return to his brilliance- which is almost good enough.
7. Varenar 108
The Foret race was impressive.
8. Whatsthescript 106
He is classy and loves the course. He will be coming late and peaking here.
9. Cowboy Cal 105
Pace scenario is against him, and his finish isn't Euro-worthy, but he's consistent.
10. Sterwins 104.5
Loved his last two closing races.
11. Diamondrella 104
Has an impressive closing punch and looks like she will improve off her win.
12. Karelian 103.5
Excellent in the soft, but doubt he can do it on the hard going with these.
13. Court Vision 103
Looked really good, but is, as always, a step below the best.
14. Jungle Wave 102
If he doesn't go into the Turf Sprint, he is a classy, dangerous horse.
15. Battle of Hastings 101.5
Ultra-consistent, hard-turf loving type who will be trying.
16. Sweet Hearth 100.5
Not as impressive to me as her stablemate.
17. Mr. Sidney 100
He is consistent at this distance, and impeccably bred (for dirt), but is still slow.
18. Free Fighter 99
Good horse. Not good enough.
19. Cosmonaut 98
Always tough in a big race, but past his prime.
20. Courageous Cat 97
The horse to watch out for next year in this division (or on dirt).
21. Take the Points 96
Should stick with his division until he's fast enough for these.
22. Straight Story 95
Ditto.

woodward '09

3. Rachel Alexandria 112

6. Asiatic Boy 108

4. Macho Again 107

5. It's a Bird 106

2. Bullsbay 105

7. Past the Point 104

1a. Cool Coal Man 103

1. Da Tara 98

I expect Rachel to bounce slightly out of that brilliant win, last out. Still, she will be nearly impossible to beat if she gets into a nice stalking rhythm. The big danger is Asiatic Boy. He has proven to be a ridiculously talented individual who can stalk and burst away from a field. His UAE Derby win was more than impressive, and he looks to win if she does not. Macho Again and It's a Bird have been aimed for this race, but I think Macho Again is the better bet, being that he is second-race-off-layoff. Bullsbay could repeat his last race and win or place second in this race, but I doubt it. I think he likes the track, but is in a much tougher race this time. Past the Point is now, apparently, a closer. This will help him today, but I have yet to see him beat anyone that wasn't easy to outrun or run down. Da Tara and Cool Coal Man are within a couple lengths of these on their best days, but I doubt they will be able to repeat their best feats here.

Wilkes' day to Shine - picks for Travers Day

Race 2:

Much Rejoicing, though not trained by someone known for his juveniles, is a brilliantly bred filly by Distorted Humor, out of Soaring Softly, a champion turf mare (who had a decent dirt pedigree).

Race 3:

#1, Great Crusade, if he drops back and makes one run, could prove a great bet at 20-1.  His mother, Victory USA, was a really talented runner.  His father, Awesome Again, is known as a late developing sire.  #2, Eagle Strike, comes from one of the best families in the country.  He is by the Capote mare, True Flare, who has produced a great deal of dirt stakes winners.  He is the horse to beat.  

Race 4 , Lure Stakes:

If it stays on the turf, and is wet, #9 is the horse to beat.  He's trained by Saratoga danger, Mott, and won last out under these same conditions when it was yielding.  Leparoux is the last piece that makes me look past everyone else.

Race 6:

If it goes off the turf, #3 The Roundhouse is the horse to beat.  He has never had a chance to go 9 furlongs (which is what it'll be on the dirt), and is bred to love it.

Race 7 , Victory Ride-G3:

1. Bold Union 94

7. Selva 92

8. Sara Louise 91

4. Sky Haven 90

6. Step Out Smartly 89

3. Reforestation 88

5. Juliet's Spirit 87

1a. All of Her Twist 86

2. Trix in the City 84

Race 8:

One to watch is #8 Moonlark, who is part of that Thoroughbred Legends Racing experiment.  By Gone West, out of a Phone Trick mare, he may be a rare first-out winner from Lukas.  His horses from the TLRStable have been firing, like Dublin.  Phone Trick being on the damside is a real kicker for me.  Plus the mare, Laptop, was a good one.  Otherwise, #1 Bulldogger is the horse to beat, and #4 Kajiwara is right behind him.

Race 9 Ballston Spa Hcp:

1. Rutherienne 100

7. Cocoa Beach 99

2. My Princess Jess 97

3. Closeout 96

6. Captain's Lover 96

8. Salve Germania 94

5. Teamgeist 91

4. Dyna's Lassie 90

I hope Rutherienne, still one of my favorites, destroys this field... and she just might if she has a good ride and clean trip.

Race 10 Ballerina:

4. Indian Blessing 105

3. Tar Heel Mom 98

1. Music Note 97

2. Informed Decision 97

5. Modification 93

6. P.S.U. Grad 90

Tar Heel Mom is the best chance at upsetting the favorite.  Music Note will be coming late, and informed decision needs it to be sloppy in order to run well.  Still, she's a couple lengths slower off the synthetic.  It's Indian Blessing's race to win or lose, but if she can't get by her, the upset chance is Tar Heel Mom.

Race 11 King's Bishop:

3. Capt. Candyman Can 108

2. Munnings 107

8. Big Drama 106

1. Vineyard Haven 101

7. Flat Bold 100

1a. Everyday Heroes 98

5. Despite the Odds 97

4. Not for Silver 96

6. Prince Joshua 94

Munnings has peaked, but is faster than most these.  I think Capt. Candyman Can will be peaking today and get the best of him.  This is THE toughest race of the day.

Race 12 Travers:

3. Warrior's Reward 108

6. Summer Bird 107

4. Quality Road 107

2. Charitable Man 105

7. Kensai 104

5. Our Edge 102

1. Hold Me Back 95

If it's a little wet and this pace sets up as it seems, the one horse who will get first jump (and be fast enough to take on) Quality Road is Warrior's Reward.  I love the way Summer Bird is coming up to the race, as well.  Personally, I doubt Kensai will get the distance, and I think the first four here are bred for the classic races, while the last three are a few lengths behind.  3-6 exacta box should pay well.

Del Mar: Bing Crosby

Bing Crosby

1. Zensational 107

6. Talkin to Mom Roo 103

4. Delta Storm 99

5. Hurry Up Austin 94

2. Bahama Breeze 93

3. Global Hunter 89

Talkin to Mom Roo looks like a very sly bet here.  I can easily see Delta Storm and Bahama Breeze taking the race to Zensational to disallow the feisty sophomore an easy lead.  If the soften the big favorite up at all, Roo is the way to go.  He has actually run equally as fast as Zensational, but the difference is we have yet to see how fast the Zen is.  Best Bets: Zensational & Talkin to Mom Roo.

Saratoga: Test & Whitney

Test

2. Cat Moves 98

6. Flashing 98

5. First Passage 93

4. Heart Ashley 90

7. Reforestation 89

8. All of Her Twist 88

1. Pretty Prolific 87

3. Olde Glamour 82

Flashing had the heat put on her in the Mother Goose, and that 9 furlong sprint should have her wound pretty tightly for this race.  I think she is the best bet to beat Cat Moves.  Otherwise, Cat Moves is a tough filly to beat.  Tony Dutrow comes from the school of Frankel, and that means that their horses run at a top-level race-after-race... not just one huge peak performance.  First Passage wins this if she repeats her last race, but I doubt a 10 length jump in her last race will not beget a bounce.  Even with the bounce, she's really well-bred and her sire-given grit and overall class will keep her near the front at the end.  Heart Ashley needs to learn to rate to win this, and the rest are very closely bunched in talent.  Best Bets: Cat Moves & First Passage. 

Whitney

4. Macho Again  108

7. Commentator 107

1. Smooth Air 106

6. Dry Martini 103

3. Bullsbay 100

5. Tizway 98

I can see Commentator going out to his customary lead, but being run down by the relentless Saratoga-loving Macho Uno.  This horse always seems to beat me when I count him out, so let's hope some faith helps me.  Smooth Air and Dry Martini will be coming, as well.  I do fear that Commentator has lost a step.  Best Bets: Macho Again & Smooth Air.  

Arlington stakes picks

Secretariat

9. Black Bear Island 96

10. Giant Oak 94

1a. Driving Snow 92

4. Laureate Conductor 92

5. Oil Man 91

7. Take the Points 91

8. Reb 89

3. Proceed Bee 86

6. Quite a Handful 85

1. Cliffy's Future 80

2. Hoosier Kingdom 76

Black Bear Island, if he runs like his Dante win (at 10.5 furlongs), wins this.  Giant Oak, if he doesn't regress again, runs well, and Driving Snow looks to be something special.  Clement is always dangerous at this meet, so watch out for Laureate Conductor.  Oil Man, Take the Points, and Reb are great bets to be in there for the exotics, but none seem to have a stronger punch than the previous four.  Best bets: Black Bear Island and Laureate Conductor.

Beverly D

5. Mad About You 101

7. Dynaforce 100

1. Alnadana 99

2. Pure Clan 99

4. Black Mamba 98

8. Denomnation 96

3. Points of Grace 95

6. Tizaqueena 90

Really tough race.  If the real Dynaforce shows up, she can dispose of Tizaqueena on the corner and open up on this field.  Mad About You, if she returns to her form of last year, has the class to draw away from this field, and Pure Clan & Black Mamba will be coming, no matter what.  The safest bets are Pure Clan and Mad About You.  

Arlington Million

8. Cima de Triomphe 109

6. Gio Ponti 108

7. Gloria de Campeao 107

1. Einstein 105

4. Stotsfold 104

3. Just As Well 102

2. Presious Passion 101

5. Mr. Sidney 99

9. Recapture the Glory 90

Cima ran fourth to the top 3 turf horses in the world in his last race.  Enough said.  Gio Ponti is going to be there no matter what, but I think he may have peaked in his last race when winning easily at a distance that should have been slightly out of his range.  Gloria de Campeao loves the left-handed course and distance, and will be sitting in the proverbial catbird seat.  I love Pascal Bary, his trainer, and respect the hell out of his ability to ship winners over here.  Einstein is always a good bet for in-the-money, but his numbers are a length or two too slow for the top three.  Best Bets:  Gio Ponti and Gloria de Campeao.  

DERBY DAY STAKES PICKS (w/ ASP)

ADOLPHSON SPEED RATINGS

PICKS - Saturday (DERBY Day)

Race 6 - The Churchill Downs Sprint
1. My Pal Charlie 103
3. Kodiak Kowboy 102
2. The Roundhouse 99
9. Sok Sok 98
5. Spotsgone 97
4. Ide Like a Double 94
6. Accredit 93
8. Silver Edition 92
7. Hewitts 88

This is the always-important 2nd-race off a layoff for My Pal Charlie. Kodiak Kowboy will be flying late along w/ The Roundhouse, and Sok Sok will be setting a rapid pace. This sets up for My Pal Charlie.

Race 7 - The Eight Belles Stakes
1. Just Jenda 94
4. Four Gifts 93
10. Auspicious 92
7. Loveyou Everybody 88
3. C.S. Silk 86
5. Warrior Maid 85
8. Lady's Laughter 84
2. She's Extreme 72
6. Dave's Revenge 72

Four Gifts and Auspicious are coming up to the race really well for Asmussen (trainer), but Just Jenda has been pointed for this race for a while. She will be tough.

Race 8 - Churchill Distaff Turf Mile
2. Visit 98
9. Elusive Lady 94
10. Rustic Flame 92
1. Lemon Chiffon 92
11. Dawn After Dawn 91
7. Ballymore Lady 91
6. Sugar Mint 90
3. Tizaqueena 90
5. Zee Zee 85
8. Stealin' Kisses 85
4. Rasierra 82

Visit and Elusive Lady are the mares to beat. Visit is the better of the two... she just needs a good trip. If she gets that, she'll run them into the ground and nip them at the wire.

Race 9 - Humana Distaff
9. Game Face 102
5. Secret Gypsy 101
4. Bear Now 99
7. Royale Michele 96
2. Dubai Majesty 95
3. Informed Decision 95
1. Tiz to Dream 90
8. Modification 89
6. Temple Street 79

Secret Gypsy is the fastest and Game Face is the most reliable. At 7 furlongs of distance, I pick the latter, especially after her last race looked so good.

Race 10 - Woodford Reserve Turf Classic
8. Cowboy Cal 105
6. Einstein 103
3. Proudinsky 102
4. Court Vision 102
9. Zambezi Sun 102
1. Artiste Royal 100
5. Yate's Black Cat 99
2. El Caballo 98
10. Thorn Song 96
7. Furthest Land 95

Einstein is the horse to beat and Proudinsky is really reliable. Court Vision and Zambezi will be flying late, but prefer longer races. The overlooked horse in the race is Cowboy Cal, who is fast enough to compete, and is always tough to run down. I think he will hold off Einstein and outsprint the rest. If not, Zambezi Sun is the wild card. He is faster than all of them-- but he needs more distance.

Race 11 - Kentucky Derby
13. I Want Revenge 111
7. Papa Clem 107
15. Dunkirk 106
6. Friesan Fire 106
16. Poineerof the Nile 105
1. West Side Bernie 104
12. General Quarters 104
19. Desert Party 103
2. Musket Man 103
17. Summer Bird 102
20. Flying Private 100
10. Regal Ransom 99
11. Chocolate Candy 98
5. Hold Me Back 97
14. Atomic Rain 97
3. Mr. Hot Stuff 96
18. Nowhere to Hide 94
8. Mine That Bird 93
4. Advice 92
9. Join in the Dance 90

In a fairly run race, I Want Revenge is the fastest. Papa Clem is going to be great odds, and is a tough tough tough competitor. Dunkirk will be flying late but needs a fast pace, which is not a given. Friesan Fire is in peak shape, and will be right there. He was my #1 for a long time, but he has to outkick I Want Revenge- which is impossible if I Want Revenge is in peak condition. The wildcard in this race is Pioneerof the Nile. He has never run in dirt, but is brilliant. If he likes the dirt, he is in the top 2, and maybe even beats them all. I Want Revenge is the safest bet.

Stakes Picks for Oaks Day

ADOLPHSON SPEED RATINGS
PICKS - Friday (Oaks Day)

Race 6 - Aegon Turf Sprint
6. Chamberlain Bridge 100
2. Smart Enough 100
5. Due Date 98
7. Cannonball 97
3. Hewitts 95
4. Captivating Cat 94
8. Accredit 94
1. Chitoz 88
9. Jazz Nation 88

Chamberlain Bridge will be hard to run down, but the only horse who looks good enough to do it is Smart Enough. They are my 1-2. Due Date will be coming late and Cannonball will be right there.

Race 7 - The Louisville Distaff
4. One Caroline 105
2. Zenyatta 104
1. Swift Temper 98
8. Unbridled Belle 98
3. Miss Isella 92
6. Modification 91
5. Unforgotten 88
7. French Kiss 86

Zenyatta (HUGE favorite) is vulnerable in a race with a front-runner, One Caroline, who has run numbers just as fast as her, and will have very little competition on the pace.

Race 8 - Edgewood Stakes
7. Magical Affair 89
10. Laragh 88
11. Diamond Tags 87
1. Excelente 86
4. Abbott Hall 86
8. More of the Best 84
3. Banker's Choice 83
2. Fleet Streak 79
6. Complicity 77
5. Walloon 75
9. Mein Fraulein 72
12. Kiss Mine 69

Magical Affair has the right running style to run down the front-running Laragh and Diamond Tags, while Excelente and Abbot Hall should be right in the mix.

Race 9 - Alysheba Stakes
8. Dr.Pleasure 104
1. Macho Again 103
5. Bullsbay 102
3. Mambo in Seattle 102
10. Informed 100
2. Ready Set 96
4. Cool Coal Man 94
6. Star Guitar 93
9. Prom Shoes 92
7. Shift in Power 86

Dr. Pleasure, like his mother, is putting it all together at late age. Macho Again is the horse to beat, while Maryland horse (woohoo!), Bullsbay is looking like he is in peak form.

Race 10 - American Turf
3. Battle of Hastings (GB) 94
5. Skipadate 93
6. Bittel Road 92
1. Stormalory 91
2. Jack Spratt 88
7. Turfiste 85
9. Orthodox 82
8. Bunker HIll 80
4. Bruce N Autumn 79

If Skipadate and Bittel Road return to their old forms, they will be 1-2. Otherwise, Battle of Hastings is the horse to beat.

Race 11 - Kentucky Oaks
6. Rachel Alexandra 107
8. Flying Spur 104
5. Justwhistledixie 100
7. Nan 96
4. Gabby's Golden Gal 94
2. Be Fair 92
1. Tweeter 85
3. Stone Legacy 70

Flying Spur is dangerous, and Justwhistledixie is tough, but Rachel Alexandra should win. She is just the best.