Showing posts with label Quality Road. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Quality Road. Show all posts

Sunday, January 11, 2009

There Goes Jojo / Indygo Still a Go

A quick reaction to the big races this past weekend:

Indygo Mountain had to have everything his way in order to show how good he was in the LeCompte Stakes, but instead he slammed the gait, was left behind, and was defeated by another son of A.P. Indy. That colt, Friesan Fire, ran a superb race, thanks to a handy ride by Gabriel Saez. The runner up, Patena, ran a really great race, as well. He is one to watch, as he was gaining late on the winner, and is by Seeking the Gold out of an A.P. Indy mare whose dam was a full sister to Touch Gold. This all screams late-running grinder, as well as a huge amount of stamina. I really liked Indygo Mountain's mid-race move, where he was stuck in last and decided to go between horses and move toward the leaders before the final turn. He was a short horse for the race (not quite as fit as his connections wanted), so such a move after a traumatic start was destined to fail. Yet, the move, itself, makes me really like the colt. I will keep him in my top contenders until he throws a bad race. Friesan Fire moves up, especially after showing push-button ability with the new blinkers. Obviously, in his game first-time dirt performance, so too does Canadian stakes winner Patena.

At Gulfstream, one of the highest regarded sophomores in the land, Quality Road, failed in his first attempt in open company. This was a bit of a surprise, but the horse who beat him ran a huge race, and must be talked about. His name is Theregoesjojo, and he ran a really professional seven panel race. He sat mid-pack, approached the leaders (two highly regarded horses: the aforementioned along with Obligingly, a Pletcher/WinStar colt). Af the eighth pole, these three talented colts lined up, and it was a sprint to the wire. Quality Road and Obligingly were both visually being asked by their jockeys, but Kent Desormeaux merely shook the reigns of Theregoesjojo, and he went by them with ease and trotted under the wire 2 lengths ahead. This horse catapults to the top, as he is well-bred, comes from an able barn, and ran like a talented horse. His winning Beyer speed figure, along with the way in which he earned it, make me think that he can reproduce this performance around two turns.

I get excited once in a while, but I will point out pretty quickly, that this colt is special. I have seen all three of his races, and the only time he lost is when he had a hole shut off at the 1/8 pole in the Bashford Manor. His maiden win before that, where he ran down a fast horse (Mine All Mine) in a five furlong race, as well as his push-button win in the allowance this weekend, show me that he is something worth watching. More interestingly, is the fact that he finishes his races with a very high, easy, and quick action. This to me means that he's simply running down what is in front of him, and is not even close to reaching his potential. His action reminds me of Street Sense.

His sire, Brahms, was meant to be a dirt horse, but only got the chance once and ran a huge race (and speed figure) when placing in the Stephen Foster. He, himself, is out of a champion mare (Queena), who won big races on both turf and dirt. Theregoesjojo's dam, Slewie Blues, and bred for two-turn speed. By Seattle Slew, who needs no introduction, and out of a Cure the Blues mare, one can expect her to produce very fast animals. If you look farther back in his pedigree, you'll see that his great grand-dam is be Le Fabuleux out of the Phipps Stable black-type mare, Her Prerogative (a daughter of Buckpasser and Queen of the Stage, a champion juvenile filly). One interesting thing to note is the cross of Blushing Groom (through Queena's dam Too Chic), Northern Dancer (through Danzig, Brahms' sire), and Le Fabuleux. There are not many horses with that combination, and the last one I can think of is Arazi, whom I consider to be the greatest horse never to show us his full potential. He, too, had an explosive finish. Exciting!

In other news, Bob Baffert proved he is a thumbs-up waving weapon, no matter his odds at Santa Anita with Century Park in the Santa Ysabel. Also, Todd Pletcher's Cowboy Cal ran the race we thought he could on a synthetic course, in the San Pasqual. The more intriguing story, to me, is the bang-up closing race that the runner up to Cowboy Cal, Informed (owned by the Bob & Beverly Lewis Trust), as well as classy comebacker Magnum running a huge race to be third. I expect another good race from both, but I especially warn bettors to really consider Magnum in any upcoming race, especially from 9-10 furlongs. He, when healthy, can run up to 109-112 on the Beyer scale, and that is faster than any horse currently stabled in California has shown.

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Lemons Anyone? - Kentucky Quatorze

As we get ready for the first two substantial sophomore races, let us review my current Kentucky Quatorze: Michael's Top 14 Derby Horses. I have also taken the liberty of tacking on the remainder of my Top 30, in order.

Rank-Horse-Comment
1. Charitable Man - I hope he gets on the work-tab soon; still the classiest of the '08 juveniles, despite my juggling of the top 10.
2. Break Water Edison - The 2nd half of my Lemon Drop Duo.
3. Quality Road - The most auspicious debut of 2008, while out of a full sister to Ajina.
4. Old Fashioned - Beautiful finish, but after a :50 half.
5. I Want Revenge - The best finish of any juvenile this year, in defeat.
6. Indygo Mountain - Beautiful colt should win the LeCompte, despite the class jump.
7. Flying Pegasus - I am this horse's one-man fan club, especially after this race against #1.
8. Hello Broadway - Tagg will get rid of his greenness.
9. Trinity Magic - Something was amiss with this special colt at DeD; do not forget him.
10. Shafted - Brilliant allowance winner by Mineshaft out of Twist Afleet, with a great kick.
11. Silver City - Easily won a one-turn allowance with class; if he stretches with the same ease, he will catapult to the top.
12. Chocolate Candy - I believe he will improve by leaps on regular dirt.
13. Square Eddie - Still could be better on real dirt, and has a great trainer in his corner.
14. Vineyard Haven - Dubai is his worst enemy.


Worth the Look
:

15. Midshipman - Ran well in the BC, but didn't blow me away; Dubai works against him.
16. Haynesfield - Runs like a miler.
17. Fiddler's Afleet - Tough NY-bred colt has been running really well against the best.
18. Unionize - The maiden I think will be known in the next month or two.
19. Tranquil Manner - A.P. Indy son of Composure who is figuring it out.
20. Point Encounter - Gaines-trainee ran a 1:14.87 6.5 furlong debut; unheard of by a Point Given.
21. Pioneer of the Nile - I fail to be impressed by him, despite the hub-bub.
22. Capt Candyman Can - A gritty, well-trained, feisty, fast and classy MILER.
23. Giant Oak - Loafed along to run well in the KYJC; should improve.
24. Beethoven - Perfect trip worked out in his favor; must show that special something to be taken seriously.


Respected, But I Would Be Surprised:
25. Azul Leon - Had a bad trip in the CashCall, but this miler still closed well.
26. Royal Vindication - Runs big numbers in defeat; needs to finish.
27. West Side Bernie - A genuine two-turn horse who can run on real or synthetic.
28. Notonthesamepage - HUGE #'s and a relaxed stride with a miler's pedigree still make you a miler.
29. Atomic Rain - May have the most room for improvement of any here.
30. Toulouse Lautrec - A maiden with a hot head who will be tough up to nine furlongs.

Monday, December 1, 2008

Kentucky Quatorze: My Top 14 Derby Prospects

Ranking / Previous Week’s Ranking / Horse
1. 2. Break Water Edison
2. 5. Old Fashioned
3. 3. Charitable Man
4. 1. Flying Pegasus
5. Silver City
6. Quality Road
7. 7. Regal Ransom
8. 7. Indygo Mountain
9. 8. Royal Vindication
10. 9. Hello Broadway
11. 4. Skipadate
12. 10. Trinity Magic
13. 11. Midshipman
14. 12. Capt Candyman Can

On the Edge:
15. 13. Vineyard Haven
16. 14. Well Positioned

The story this week was breakout performances by horses who looked primed to do so. Old Fashioned made everyone take a second glance after his tour de force in the Remsen. I see a great deal of potential in this colt, but I do see his damsire, Meadowlake, as a liability. Meadowlake is notorious for young runners, especially juveniles, who develop early and very rarely improve after the midpoint of their sophomore years. To be fair, Unbridled’s Song’s offspring do well at younger ages as well. This makes me wonder if, despite his few races, he is simply more physically developed than his counterparts. On the other hand, we have another new gray superstar budding in Silver City, who flew Alysheba’s famed colors to a sharp victory at Churchill. Watch out for this colt and his stablemate, Indygo Mountain. Another big debut was Quality Road in an Aqueduct maiden. This Jimmy Jerkins-trained colt is beautifully bred with Elusive Quality on top and a full sister to feisty champion, Ajina, on the bottom. Ajina was a talented, tough stalker who could put up some big numbers. She was also a great deal more aggressive than her stablemate, Escena. Perhaps that is why she was a bit less consistent. In this, do not be surprised if Quality Road is equally as spotty.

I am still waiting to see what will come of the Nashua’s top three (Break Water Edison, Hello Broadway, Royal Vindication), but all three bode pedigrees that force us to take a second look at their chances in the Big Dance. I do see Break Water Edison developing really well in the future. His sire, Lemon Drop Kid, improved with age. Also, he has some great classic influence with Risen Star, Secretariat, and Ack Ack on his damside. It is also a good thing that they are giving him some time off, as he ran a great deal already this year (five times), including a quick two-week wheeling after a gritty second in the Saratoga Special.

I am still waiting to hear about Regal Ransom, but I am still a big fan of this colt with a wonderful high cruising rate. Hopefully he is still here in the U.S. and not training in the U.A.E. with the rest of Darley’s first string. I get the feeling that Charitable Man will be a late-comer in the sophomore Derby trials, as he is slated to return to training in early January.

Many of you may be wondering who in the heck Flying Pegasus is. He’s the tough once-beaten colt who finished second in the Futurity to Charitable Man. He showed so much talent that day, that I have to keep him in my top tier. He has a beautiful energy-saving stride and a great cruising rate. Do not be surprised to see Skipadate move his very game efforts from grass to dirt. He is bred for the dirt and has his sire’s signature high knee action. Trinity Magic has shown some impressive numbers, but simply has to prove that he can do it around two turns this week in the Delta Jackpot. Midshipman and Vineyard Haven are low on the list because he is going to Dubai. Captain Candyman Can ran gamely, but must run like less of a miler and more of a stayer if he is to ‘stay’ on this list. The other two colts who finished with him in the KJC, Giant Oak and winner Beethoven, both failed to truly impress me. Let us see them do it again and in faster numbers. Lastly, Well Positioned is still on here because I believe he will jump up and impress more people than myself. He is bred to get better with age and love a distance of ground.

Here’s to the Derby Trail!

Adolphson Thoroughbred Consulting

Washington, D.C.

MHAdolphson@Gmail.com
www.AdolphsonTC.com
202.716.7046