An Updated Kentucky Quatorze

1. Theregoesjojo
2. Old Fashioned
3. I Want Revenge
4. Break Water Edison
5. Quality Road
6. Poltergeist
7. Flying Pegasus
8. Indygo Mountain
9. Silver City
10. Hello Broadway
11. Musket Man
12. Shafted
13. Friesan Fire
14. Pioneerof the Nile

Thoughts from last weekend:

Nicanor looked good and strong until something obviously went awry with him. I was worried that he would have the action of an ordinary horse, but the way he ran was exceptional until the incident. Watch out next time.

Gulfstream was a sandbox of a deep surface, with nothing moving from the back of the pack. This should especially make (my pick in the Donn) Great Hunter's run look that much better. He and Capt Candyman Can were two of the few horses I saw making up any ground on that course.

In the Hutcheson (which I am so glad that it is back in its traditional late January position), Capt Candyman Can proved once again that he's a very, very classy miler. I will be very surprised if he stretcheds beyond 8.5 furlongs, but I am often wrong. Candy Ride, his sire (of whom you know that I am a big fan), looked the same way and could run up to 10 furlongs. He has his sire's fast, efficient action, but his female family is laden with sprinters and milers.

The real story of this race was Hello Broadway. He becomes a huge shot after running on the lead, and obviously being a closer. What I liked was his grit in defeat. He was out of place and still ran credibly. I doubt Broken Vow's sire stamina influence, but I'll give this colt a lot of credit. Something was obviously amiss with my (previously #1 Derby pick) Break Water Edison. Nothing has surfaced in the press, but I am sure something was wrong. Even before, when running poorly, there was a huge excuse for him. I'll keep him in my top tier.

C.S. Silk, who ran one of the most impressive juvenile filly races last year, looked once again like a horse who disliked the track in the Forward Gal. Perhaps it was that she was stuck back in an unfavorable position, but I am prone to think that she likes it on the lead on a synthetic course. Frolic's Dream proved once again that under 7 furlongs is her turf in the division. That is, until she rematches with my projected best filly sprinter of 2009, Elusive Heat, who ran off the screen on January 29th.

In the Holy Bull, Beethoven ran credibly, but I worry still about his endurance capacity. The race was one of the more boring Derby preps I have ever seen, but there were a few horses who are definitely dangerous next out. Most notably, West Side Bernie, who kept coming, despite the distance being too far too soon.

The Donn Handicap was nearly as boring as the Holy Bull, with a miler wearing down a sub-par pacemaker. As mentioned, Great Hunter ran a credible race, and Einstein proved again that he is not a fan of Gulfstream. He needs more to grab ahold of, and that course was obviously very loose and slow.

Kip Deville proved once again that American turf horses are sub-par, when winning at what is not his optimal distance. He looks about 2 lengths slower at 9 furlongs, and his number reflected it. Court Vision, who has always been a bit overrated, ran well, but was poorly ridden. He should have been dropped to the tail of the field and given a wide run. The big disappointment was that Red Rocks, who has the best kick in the field, did not show up. He ran like a bothered horse, but will be tough next out if all is well.

On the west coast, the beautiful Jibboom ran a better race than she got credit for when being passed by her outstanding stablemate, Ventura, but digging in to chase her hole and lose by a length. They drew off from the field and really put on a nice show of talent.

Kentucky Quatorze : Kentucky Derby Top 14, as of 1/26/09

1. Break Water Edison
2. Theregoesjojo
3. Old Fashioned
4. I Want Revenge
5. Musket Man
6. Quality Road
7. Poltergeist
8. Flying Pegasus
9. Indygo Mountain
10. Silver City
11. Hello Broadway
12. Dunkirk
13. Shafted
14. Friesan Fire

Knocking on the Door
Chocolate Candy
Trinity Magic
Square Eddie
Patena
Tranquil Manner
Pioneerof the Nile
Notonthesamepage
Cliffy's Future
The Pamplemousse
Keep Thinking

Break Water Edison inherits the top spot this week, as his half brother Charitable Man has disappeared from the work-tab since October due to injury. The Pamplemousse normally would not get a nod from me (given how everything went his way at Santa Anita), but I respect anything that hits the track from the Julio Canani barn. He is one of the top five trainers in the United States and must be respected.

Chocolate Candy ran exactly like everyone expected in northern California. He is a talented colt who needs to run faster than he has. His pedigree screams natural dirt, so it is nice to see that he can perform well on the rubber carpet. Patena being purchased by IEAH is a smart move on their behalf. This colt is extremely well-bred, and has a great deal of room for improvement.

The horse who needs to be respected right now is Silver City. This colt ran away with the Dixieland Stakes, making it look like a $30,000 public workout. This colt is no doubt a serious racehorse with a fantastic cruising rate, as well as closing kick. His connections and his critics doubt his stamina, but my gut says he not only will get two turns, but could possibly get 10 furlongs. He is raw talent, and we have only seen a few as impressive as he has been. On the note of his pedigree, he is by Unbridled's Song, the sire of Old Fashioned, out of a Mt. Livermore mare. Mt. Livermore was a sprinter whose progeny were best as milers (Eliza) and sprinters (Housebuster), but Silver City's granddam is bred very similarly to Storm Cat. In this, we see a Storm Bird mare out of a Secretariat-sired full-sister to brilliant turf router Academy Award. Throw in classy Mr. Prospector Blood farther back, and this pedigree is stacked in every direction. This horse is Derby material until I am proven wrong. I would love to see him thrown into the Fountain of Youth at a mile (a nice step up from 5.5 furlongs) and then a two-turn race.

A maiden to be watched intently is Keep Thinking. This colt has raced (very greenly) twice, and has always come running at the end. He has finished second and fourth in his two races (at Belmont and Hollywood). If he puts two and two together, he will be one of the best of his generation. He is by A.P. Indy out of the beautiful Denebola (Storm Cat-Coup de Genie), and was purchased for a session-topping $2.4 Million. Speaking of big sale toppers...

The big movers are $3.7 Million purchase Dunkirk, Theregoesjojo, Musket Man, Poltergeist, and Cliffy's Future. Dunkirk proved to be a colt worth every penny when easily winning his 7 furlong debut at Gulfstream, this week. He is a strapping son of Unbridled's Song out of the galloping Kentucky Oaks winner, Secret Status.

Theregoesjojo, despite his questionable name, looks like a very talented horse with a very strong finish. He also seems to have much more available than his races have shown us, and I look forward to his tangle with my #5, Musket Man. The latter is undefeated and runs in a very push-button fashion. His sire, Yonaguska, was very much the same way, but this colt looks to be able to outrun his pedigree. The 7 furlongs of the Pasco Stakes win (1/17/09) looked well within his range, as he galloped past the leaders and easily turned back a challenge from the outside.

Poltergeist looked like he finally had a chance to stretch his legs in his first attempt at two turns. He pulled out a huge win and a 95 Beyer, tied for the best two-turn speed figure this year by a sophomore. He is a gorgeous gray colt who looks like a cross between his red-hot sire, Tapit, and his damsire, Relaunch. His running style is much more like the former, but the way he lowers his head and stretches his stride is much more like the Relaunch side of his family. Watch out for this colt trained by Donnie Von Hemel. He has never been off the board in 5 starts and is on the improve. Also, I love his name. (There, I said it.)

Cliffy's Future ran a very unlucky second in an allowance at Aqueduct to a very classy and speedy colt, Pitched Perfectly, who had previously finished fourth to Haynesfield in an uncharacteristically dull performance. Pitched Perfectly is talented, but must show he is more than a speed horse to be genuinely considered. Cliffy's Future, on the other hand, darted from the tail end of the field, went through an opening at the rail and nearly ran down a tough counterpart. He seems to be putting it all together and, as expected with offspring of The Cliff's Edge, is excelling around two turns. Watch out for him in the Gotham.

Lemons Anyone? - Kentucky Quatorze

As we get ready for the first two substantial sophomore races, let us review my current Kentucky Quatorze: Michael's Top 14 Derby Horses. I have also taken the liberty of tacking on the remainder of my Top 30, in order.

Rank-Horse-Comment
1. Charitable Man - I hope he gets on the work-tab soon; still the classiest of the '08 juveniles, despite my juggling of the top 10.
2. Break Water Edison - The 2nd half of my Lemon Drop Duo.
3. Quality Road - The most auspicious debut of 2008, while out of a full sister to Ajina.
4. Old Fashioned - Beautiful finish, but after a :50 half.
5. I Want Revenge - The best finish of any juvenile this year, in defeat.
6. Indygo Mountain - Beautiful colt should win the LeCompte, despite the class jump.
7. Flying Pegasus - I am this horse's one-man fan club, especially after this race against #1.
8. Hello Broadway - Tagg will get rid of his greenness.
9. Trinity Magic - Something was amiss with this special colt at DeD; do not forget him.
10. Shafted - Brilliant allowance winner by Mineshaft out of Twist Afleet, with a great kick.
11. Silver City - Easily won a one-turn allowance with class; if he stretches with the same ease, he will catapult to the top.
12. Chocolate Candy - I believe he will improve by leaps on regular dirt.
13. Square Eddie - Still could be better on real dirt, and has a great trainer in his corner.
14. Vineyard Haven - Dubai is his worst enemy.


Worth the Look:
15. Midshipman - Ran well in the BC, but didn't blow me away; Dubai works against him.
16. Haynesfield - Runs like a miler.
17. Fiddler's Afleet - Tough NY-bred colt has been running really well against the best.
18. Unionize - The maiden I think will be known in the next month or two.
19. Tranquil Manner - A.P. Indy son of Composure who is figuring it out.
20. Point Encounter - Gaines-trainee ran a 1:14.87 6.5 furlong debut; unheard of by a Point Given.
21. Pioneer of the Nile - I fail to be impressed by him, despite the hub-bub.
22. Capt Candyman Can - A gritty, well-trained, feisty, fast and classy MILER.
23. Giant Oak - Loafed along to run well in the KYJC; should improve.
24. Beethoven - Perfect trip worked out in his favor; must show that special something to be taken seriously.


Respected, But I Would Be Surprised:
25. Azul Leon - Had a bad trip in the CashCall, but this miler still closed well.
26. Royal Vindication - Runs big numbers in defeat; needs to finish.
27. West Side Bernie - A genuine two-turn horse who can run on real or synthetic.
28. Notonthesamepage - HUGE #'s and a relaxed stride with a miler's pedigree still make you a miler.
29. Atomic Rain - May have the most room for improvement of any here.
30. Toulouse Lautrec - A maiden with a hot head who will be tough up to nine furlongs.

Your $600 Worth

There was one eye-catching performance this weekend, and it was not from any winners. In Louisiana, Calder-based Big Drama won a battle with West Side Bernie for the lucrative win at Delta Downs. Though both were impressive, and both ran great numbers, the most impressive race was from third-place finisher Stimulus Plan. Launching his bid from about 15 lengths off the pace after a quarter, the Jump Start colt ran to within two lengths at the wire. More impressive was that Delta Downs has a very short stretch that all but disallows any closer from running a winning race.

If you examine Stimulus Plan's pedigree, it is no wonder that he has improved with both age and distance. His sire, Jump Start, was a star on the rise as a two-year-old until he was prematurely injured and sent to stud. Called one of D. Wayne Lukas' best juveniles ever, this son of A.P. Indy was an impressive winner of the Saratoga Special, as well as runner up behind one of the two-year-olds I have ever seen, Officer, in the Champagne. Out of a Storm Cat half sister to Miswaki, this stallion is bred to produce anything on any surface that can go a distance of ground. There is not a great deal of electrifying speed on this side, but there is on his dam's side.

Stimulus Plan's dam, Dutchess Alexandra, is by Judge Smells out of Courting Days by Bold Lad. First, it must be said that Courting Days is impeccably bred, herself. By Bold Lad, the champion juvenile and second best horse (behind Secretariat) ever produced by Bold Ruler, out of the Hail to Reason mare, Admiring, she was bred to run long and run often. Add to that the speed of Judge Smells, an undefeated pace-setting winner of the Hollywood Prevue Stakes from the blatantly speed-laden In Reality line, and you have a nice balance of a colt who will run better with age, distance, and experience. Oddly enough, there are also a great deal of horses with many starts in Stimulus Plans' pedigree, which is refreshing to see with the current fragile state of racing.

1. 1. 2. Break Water Edison
2. 2. 5. Old Fashioned
3. 3. 3. Charitable Man
4. 4. 1. Flying Pegasus
5. 5. Silver City
6. 6. Quality Road
7. 7. 7. Regal Ransom
8. 8. 7. Indygo Mountain
9. Stimulus Plan
10. 9. 8. Royal Vindication
11. 10. 9. Hello Broadway
12. West Side Bernie
13. 13. 11. Midshipman
14. 14. 12. Capt Candyman Can

This colt has raced four times and never finished worse than third. I expect big things and catapult him to #9 on my Kentucky Quatorze: Top 14 Derby Prospects. Runner-up in the Delta Jackpot, West Side Bernie, ran well enough to merit moving into the #12 spot, while Big Drama has to prove that he can win a similar race over a longer stretch and distance. Any colt by Montbrook out of a Notebook mare is new Florida speed on top of old florida sprinter speed. Any ability to go two turns is an influence from Damascus, Tom Fool, and Prince John far back in his pedigree enough to only take him 'but so far.' Also, his stride is very much a miler's stride, while those of the previously mentioned colts make us want to see them go longer.

Coming up we have the CashCall/Hollywood Futurity, as our last big juvenile race of the year. This race is being hyped as a clash between Zayat Stables' highly touted Pioneerof the Nile, whose name makes me cringe, and Sid and Jenny Craig Estate's Chocolate Candy, a son of my favorite freshman stallion, Candy Ride. The latter won the Real Quiet Stakes at the course and distance, but as a student of the game, I must say that this race is most likely going to be won by a newcomer, as neither of the top two have run numbers that make them anywhere in the vacinity of the term, 'standout.' Watch out for anyone that renowned late-developing juvenile trainers such as Neil Drysdale, Richard Mandella, Eoin Harty, Bob Baffert, or Doug O'Neill throw in this race.

Kentucky Quatorze: My Top 14 Derby Prospects

Ranking / Previous Week’s Ranking / Horse
1. 2. Break Water Edison
2. 5. Old Fashioned
3. 3. Charitable Man
4. 1. Flying Pegasus
5. Silver City
6. Quality Road
7. 7. Regal Ransom
8. 7. Indygo Mountain
9. 8. Royal Vindication
10. 9. Hello Broadway
11. 4. Skipadate
12. 10. Trinity Magic
13. 11. Midshipman
14. 12. Capt Candyman Can

On the Edge:
15. 13. Vineyard Haven
16. 14. Well Positioned

The story this week was breakout performances by horses who looked primed to do so. Old Fashioned made everyone take a second glance after his tour de force in the Remsen. I see a great deal of potential in this colt, but I do see his damsire, Meadowlake, as a liability. Meadowlake is notorious for young runners, especially juveniles, who develop early and very rarely improve after the midpoint of their sophomore years. To be fair, Unbridled’s Song’s offspring do well at younger ages as well. This makes me wonder if, despite his few races, he is simply more physically developed than his counterparts. On the other hand, we have another new gray superstar budding in Silver City, who flew Alysheba’s famed colors to a sharp victory at Churchill. Watch out for this colt and his stablemate, Indygo Mountain. Another big debut was Quality Road in an Aqueduct maiden. This Jimmy Jerkins-trained colt is beautifully bred with Elusive Quality on top and a full sister to feisty champion, Ajina, on the bottom. Ajina was a talented, tough stalker who could put up some big numbers. She was also a great deal more aggressive than her stablemate, Escena. Perhaps that is why she was a bit less consistent. In this, do not be surprised if Quality Road is equally as spotty.

I am still waiting to see what will come of the Nashua’s top three (Break Water Edison, Hello Broadway, Royal Vindication), but all three bode pedigrees that force us to take a second look at their chances in the Big Dance. I do see Break Water Edison developing really well in the future. His sire, Lemon Drop Kid, improved with age. Also, he has some great classic influence with Risen Star, Secretariat, and Ack Ack on his damside. It is also a good thing that they are giving him some time off, as he ran a great deal already this year (five times), including a quick two-week wheeling after a gritty second in the Saratoga Special.

I am still waiting to hear about Regal Ransom, but I am still a big fan of this colt with a wonderful high cruising rate. Hopefully he is still here in the U.S. and not training in the U.A.E. with the rest of Darley’s first string. I get the feeling that Charitable Man will be a late-comer in the sophomore Derby trials, as he is slated to return to training in early January.

Many of you may be wondering who in the heck Flying Pegasus is. He’s the tough once-beaten colt who finished second in the Futurity to Charitable Man. He showed so much talent that day, that I have to keep him in my top tier. He has a beautiful energy-saving stride and a great cruising rate. Do not be surprised to see Skipadate move his very game efforts from grass to dirt. He is bred for the dirt and has his sire’s signature high knee action. Trinity Magic has shown some impressive numbers, but simply has to prove that he can do it around two turns this week in the Delta Jackpot. Midshipman and Vineyard Haven are low on the list because he is going to Dubai. Captain Candyman Can ran gamely, but must run like less of a miler and more of a stayer if he is to ‘stay’ on this list. The other two colts who finished with him in the KJC, Giant Oak and winner Beethoven, both failed to truly impress me. Let us see them do it again and in faster numbers. Lastly, Well Positioned is still on here because I believe he will jump up and impress more people than myself. He is bred to get better with age and love a distance of ground.

Here’s to the Derby Trail!

Charity Break

Back in the summer I was touting two juveniles that I thought could be huge threats in subsequent months and (possibly) years. Both of these sons of Lemon Drop Kid have made their marks.

I do not believe Charitable Man, the winner of the Grade 2 Futurity Stakes, and Break Water Edison, winner of the Grade 3 Nashua Stakes, will have gone by the wayside when we recollect the crop of 2006. The former will be a force if he is healthy in 2009, and the latter will most likely win the Remsen this weekend. Let the games begin...my current Kentucky Derby Fabulous 14:

1. Flying Pegasus
2. Break Water Edison
3. Charitable Man
4. Skipadate
5. Old Fashioned
6. Regal Ransom
7. Indygo Mountain
8. Royal Vindication
9. Hello Broadway
10. Trinity Magic
11. Midshipman
12. Capt Candyman Can
13. Vineyard Haven
14. Well Positioned

Flying Comments

When horses run like Commentator, we are reminded of how well an animal can perform when given the time to develop. He may not show the bald speed that he used to, but Commentator definitely runs like a horse with the balance of maturity and innate pace. For a horse who, in human years, is a 42+ year old running against 24+ year olds, he showed us brilliance can flourish with patience. As far as his last two wins, including Saturday's Mass 'Cap romp, he has proven that he may possibly be a Classic contender, able to keep his brilliant pace over a distance of ground. In this, the synthetics may help him get the extra furlong.

On the other side of the age spectrum, it was fantastic to see my highly touted Charitable Man win like a more mature horse in the Futurity last weekend at Belmont. He runs a lot like his father, Lemon Drop Kid, and looks to be in great hands. Unlike most people, I like the jump into two turns from a seven-furlong race- but only if the horse's pedigree screams distance. Being by a Belmont Stakes winning sire, out of a Halo/Seeking the Gold cross on his damside- he should have no issues negotiating 8.5 furlongs.

A horse to watch out for next time he runs is runner up, Flying Pegasus. This colt is by Fusaichi Pegasus out of multiple stakes winner (4 of her 5 wins were stakes, in 13 starts), Lilly Capote. Born in 1992, this filly had the misfortune of being among the throng of great fillies of that year (with the two best being in the same barn with her: Serena's Song and Flanders). Watch as Lilly Capote gives a great showing of herself in what would become an epic race. This filly, of great scope, finally meshed well with a stallion when she produced Flying Pegasus, who looks like he has a huge future.

The Fantastic Fourteen: Juveniles


1. Flying Pegasus Can rate and is bred to be a brilliant young horse.
2. Charitable Man Simply the fastest numbers and got the better of #1 when drafting off his pace.
3. Regal Ransom This once-raced colt ran a big number with bulldog-like tenacity. Will also LOVE synthetics.
4. Azul Leon If he is healthy, he is by far the best of the west.
5. Midshipman It's a shame for Baffert to lose one; going to be difficult to beat around two turns in the Norfolk.
6. Cribnote His debut and impressive botched race in the Hopeful make you think that he (though bred to be a miler) could be a really special type.
7. Coronet of a Baron Always there, with natural speed, and tough to beat- but he's been beaten by a superior animal in his last two.
8. Run Away and Hide A crafty type with a push-button style that could stretch out beyond a mile if trained correctly.
9. Brave Victory This huge animal lopes along but runs impressively in each race. He was second to Regal Ransom and then came back yesterday (9/20) to win impressively over 7 panels at Belmont.
10. Terrain Had his race completely taken away twice in the Arlington-Washington Futurity, and deserved the win. He has fast numbers and is from the family of Unbridled with talented juvenile Sky Mesa on top. Should improve around two turns and can run on anything.
11. Break Water Edison His last race was back too soon, and that was evident in his performance, but it will help him next out around two turns. Watch out for this son of the ever-improving Lemon Drop Kid.
12. Vineyard Haven Ran a slow number and had everything his way. He has two things going for him: Frankel as his trainer and he is an absolutely gorgeous gray/roan.
13. Keep Thinking This is the best-bred two year old I have seen, by A.P. Indy out of Denebola (French classic winner) who was shuffled back and swept past all but one when second behind Royal Vindication (who barely didn't make the list) this week at Belmont. He will be heard from soon.
14. Munnings This expensive colt ran well despite a dwelt start in the Hopeful. Pletcher will get the best out of him, but I'm not yet convinced that optimum will be able to compete with the top five here.

Happy Racing everyone.