Kentucky Quatorze : Kentucky Derby Top 14, as of 1/26/09

1. Break Water Edison
2. Theregoesjojo
3. Old Fashioned
4. I Want Revenge
5. Musket Man
6. Quality Road
7. Poltergeist
8. Flying Pegasus
9. Indygo Mountain
10. Silver City
11. Hello Broadway
12. Dunkirk
13. Shafted
14. Friesan Fire

Knocking on the Door
Chocolate Candy
Trinity Magic
Square Eddie
Patena
Tranquil Manner
Pioneerof the Nile
Notonthesamepage
Cliffy's Future
The Pamplemousse
Keep Thinking

Break Water Edison inherits the top spot this week, as his half brother Charitable Man has disappeared from the work-tab since October due to injury. The Pamplemousse normally would not get a nod from me (given how everything went his way at Santa Anita), but I respect anything that hits the track from the Julio Canani barn. He is one of the top five trainers in the United States and must be respected.

Chocolate Candy ran exactly like everyone expected in northern California. He is a talented colt who needs to run faster than he has. His pedigree screams natural dirt, so it is nice to see that he can perform well on the rubber carpet. Patena being purchased by IEAH is a smart move on their behalf. This colt is extremely well-bred, and has a great deal of room for improvement.

The horse who needs to be respected right now is Silver City. This colt ran away with the Dixieland Stakes, making it look like a $30,000 public workout. This colt is no doubt a serious racehorse with a fantastic cruising rate, as well as closing kick. His connections and his critics doubt his stamina, but my gut says he not only will get two turns, but could possibly get 10 furlongs. He is raw talent, and we have only seen a few as impressive as he has been. On the note of his pedigree, he is by Unbridled's Song, the sire of Old Fashioned, out of a Mt. Livermore mare. Mt. Livermore was a sprinter whose progeny were best as milers (Eliza) and sprinters (Housebuster), but Silver City's granddam is bred very similarly to Storm Cat. In this, we see a Storm Bird mare out of a Secretariat-sired full-sister to brilliant turf router Academy Award. Throw in classy Mr. Prospector Blood farther back, and this pedigree is stacked in every direction. This horse is Derby material until I am proven wrong. I would love to see him thrown into the Fountain of Youth at a mile (a nice step up from 5.5 furlongs) and then a two-turn race.

A maiden to be watched intently is Keep Thinking. This colt has raced (very greenly) twice, and has always come running at the end. He has finished second and fourth in his two races (at Belmont and Hollywood). If he puts two and two together, he will be one of the best of his generation. He is by A.P. Indy out of the beautiful Denebola (Storm Cat-Coup de Genie), and was purchased for a session-topping $2.4 Million. Speaking of big sale toppers...

The big movers are $3.7 Million purchase Dunkirk, Theregoesjojo, Musket Man, Poltergeist, and Cliffy's Future. Dunkirk proved to be a colt worth every penny when easily winning his 7 furlong debut at Gulfstream, this week. He is a strapping son of Unbridled's Song out of the galloping Kentucky Oaks winner, Secret Status.

Theregoesjojo, despite his questionable name, looks like a very talented horse with a very strong finish. He also seems to have much more available than his races have shown us, and I look forward to his tangle with my #5, Musket Man. The latter is undefeated and runs in a very push-button fashion. His sire, Yonaguska, was very much the same way, but this colt looks to be able to outrun his pedigree. The 7 furlongs of the Pasco Stakes win (1/17/09) looked well within his range, as he galloped past the leaders and easily turned back a challenge from the outside.

Poltergeist looked like he finally had a chance to stretch his legs in his first attempt at two turns. He pulled out a huge win and a 95 Beyer, tied for the best two-turn speed figure this year by a sophomore. He is a gorgeous gray colt who looks like a cross between his red-hot sire, Tapit, and his damsire, Relaunch. His running style is much more like the former, but the way he lowers his head and stretches his stride is much more like the Relaunch side of his family. Watch out for this colt trained by Donnie Von Hemel. He has never been off the board in 5 starts and is on the improve. Also, I love his name. (There, I said it.)

Cliffy's Future ran a very unlucky second in an allowance at Aqueduct to a very classy and speedy colt, Pitched Perfectly, who had previously finished fourth to Haynesfield in an uncharacteristically dull performance. Pitched Perfectly is talented, but must show he is more than a speed horse to be genuinely considered. Cliffy's Future, on the other hand, darted from the tail end of the field, went through an opening at the rail and nearly ran down a tough counterpart. He seems to be putting it all together and, as expected with offspring of The Cliff's Edge, is excelling around two turns. Watch out for him in the Gotham.

Your $600 Worth

There was one eye-catching performance this weekend, and it was not from any winners. In Louisiana, Calder-based Big Drama won a battle with West Side Bernie for the lucrative win at Delta Downs. Though both were impressive, and both ran great numbers, the most impressive race was from third-place finisher Stimulus Plan. Launching his bid from about 15 lengths off the pace after a quarter, the Jump Start colt ran to within two lengths at the wire. More impressive was that Delta Downs has a very short stretch that all but disallows any closer from running a winning race.

If you examine Stimulus Plan's pedigree, it is no wonder that he has improved with both age and distance. His sire, Jump Start, was a star on the rise as a two-year-old until he was prematurely injured and sent to stud. Called one of D. Wayne Lukas' best juveniles ever, this son of A.P. Indy was an impressive winner of the Saratoga Special, as well as runner up behind one of the two-year-olds I have ever seen, Officer, in the Champagne. Out of a Storm Cat half sister to Miswaki, this stallion is bred to produce anything on any surface that can go a distance of ground. There is not a great deal of electrifying speed on this side, but there is on his dam's side.

Stimulus Plan's dam, Dutchess Alexandra, is by Judge Smells out of Courting Days by Bold Lad. First, it must be said that Courting Days is impeccably bred, herself. By Bold Lad, the champion juvenile and second best horse (behind Secretariat) ever produced by Bold Ruler, out of the Hail to Reason mare, Admiring, she was bred to run long and run often. Add to that the speed of Judge Smells, an undefeated pace-setting winner of the Hollywood Prevue Stakes from the blatantly speed-laden In Reality line, and you have a nice balance of a colt who will run better with age, distance, and experience. Oddly enough, there are also a great deal of horses with many starts in Stimulus Plans' pedigree, which is refreshing to see with the current fragile state of racing.

1. 1. 2. Break Water Edison
2. 2. 5. Old Fashioned
3. 3. 3. Charitable Man
4. 4. 1. Flying Pegasus
5. 5. Silver City
6. 6. Quality Road
7. 7. 7. Regal Ransom
8. 8. 7. Indygo Mountain
9. Stimulus Plan
10. 9. 8. Royal Vindication
11. 10. 9. Hello Broadway
12. West Side Bernie
13. 13. 11. Midshipman
14. 14. 12. Capt Candyman Can

This colt has raced four times and never finished worse than third. I expect big things and catapult him to #9 on my Kentucky Quatorze: Top 14 Derby Prospects. Runner-up in the Delta Jackpot, West Side Bernie, ran well enough to merit moving into the #12 spot, while Big Drama has to prove that he can win a similar race over a longer stretch and distance. Any colt by Montbrook out of a Notebook mare is new Florida speed on top of old florida sprinter speed. Any ability to go two turns is an influence from Damascus, Tom Fool, and Prince John far back in his pedigree enough to only take him 'but so far.' Also, his stride is very much a miler's stride, while those of the previously mentioned colts make us want to see them go longer.

Coming up we have the CashCall/Hollywood Futurity, as our last big juvenile race of the year. This race is being hyped as a clash between Zayat Stables' highly touted Pioneerof the Nile, whose name makes me cringe, and Sid and Jenny Craig Estate's Chocolate Candy, a son of my favorite freshman stallion, Candy Ride. The latter won the Real Quiet Stakes at the course and distance, but as a student of the game, I must say that this race is most likely going to be won by a newcomer, as neither of the top two have run numbers that make them anywhere in the vacinity of the term, 'standout.' Watch out for anyone that renowned late-developing juvenile trainers such as Neil Drysdale, Richard Mandella, Eoin Harty, Bob Baffert, or Doug O'Neill throw in this race.