Kentucky Quatorze : Kentucky Derby Top 14, as of 1/26/09

1. Break Water Edison
2. Theregoesjojo
3. Old Fashioned
4. I Want Revenge
5. Musket Man
6. Quality Road
7. Poltergeist
8. Flying Pegasus
9. Indygo Mountain
10. Silver City
11. Hello Broadway
12. Dunkirk
13. Shafted
14. Friesan Fire

Knocking on the Door
Chocolate Candy
Trinity Magic
Square Eddie
Patena
Tranquil Manner
Pioneerof the Nile
Notonthesamepage
Cliffy's Future
The Pamplemousse
Keep Thinking

Break Water Edison inherits the top spot this week, as his half brother Charitable Man has disappeared from the work-tab since October due to injury. The Pamplemousse normally would not get a nod from me (given how everything went his way at Santa Anita), but I respect anything that hits the track from the Julio Canani barn. He is one of the top five trainers in the United States and must be respected.

Chocolate Candy ran exactly like everyone expected in northern California. He is a talented colt who needs to run faster than he has. His pedigree screams natural dirt, so it is nice to see that he can perform well on the rubber carpet. Patena being purchased by IEAH is a smart move on their behalf. This colt is extremely well-bred, and has a great deal of room for improvement.

The horse who needs to be respected right now is Silver City. This colt ran away with the Dixieland Stakes, making it look like a $30,000 public workout. This colt is no doubt a serious racehorse with a fantastic cruising rate, as well as closing kick. His connections and his critics doubt his stamina, but my gut says he not only will get two turns, but could possibly get 10 furlongs. He is raw talent, and we have only seen a few as impressive as he has been. On the note of his pedigree, he is by Unbridled's Song, the sire of Old Fashioned, out of a Mt. Livermore mare. Mt. Livermore was a sprinter whose progeny were best as milers (Eliza) and sprinters (Housebuster), but Silver City's granddam is bred very similarly to Storm Cat. In this, we see a Storm Bird mare out of a Secretariat-sired full-sister to brilliant turf router Academy Award. Throw in classy Mr. Prospector Blood farther back, and this pedigree is stacked in every direction. This horse is Derby material until I am proven wrong. I would love to see him thrown into the Fountain of Youth at a mile (a nice step up from 5.5 furlongs) and then a two-turn race.

A maiden to be watched intently is Keep Thinking. This colt has raced (very greenly) twice, and has always come running at the end. He has finished second and fourth in his two races (at Belmont and Hollywood). If he puts two and two together, he will be one of the best of his generation. He is by A.P. Indy out of the beautiful Denebola (Storm Cat-Coup de Genie), and was purchased for a session-topping $2.4 Million. Speaking of big sale toppers...

The big movers are $3.7 Million purchase Dunkirk, Theregoesjojo, Musket Man, Poltergeist, and Cliffy's Future. Dunkirk proved to be a colt worth every penny when easily winning his 7 furlong debut at Gulfstream, this week. He is a strapping son of Unbridled's Song out of the galloping Kentucky Oaks winner, Secret Status.

Theregoesjojo, despite his questionable name, looks like a very talented horse with a very strong finish. He also seems to have much more available than his races have shown us, and I look forward to his tangle with my #5, Musket Man. The latter is undefeated and runs in a very push-button fashion. His sire, Yonaguska, was very much the same way, but this colt looks to be able to outrun his pedigree. The 7 furlongs of the Pasco Stakes win (1/17/09) looked well within his range, as he galloped past the leaders and easily turned back a challenge from the outside.

Poltergeist looked like he finally had a chance to stretch his legs in his first attempt at two turns. He pulled out a huge win and a 95 Beyer, tied for the best two-turn speed figure this year by a sophomore. He is a gorgeous gray colt who looks like a cross between his red-hot sire, Tapit, and his damsire, Relaunch. His running style is much more like the former, but the way he lowers his head and stretches his stride is much more like the Relaunch side of his family. Watch out for this colt trained by Donnie Von Hemel. He has never been off the board in 5 starts and is on the improve. Also, I love his name. (There, I said it.)

Cliffy's Future ran a very unlucky second in an allowance at Aqueduct to a very classy and speedy colt, Pitched Perfectly, who had previously finished fourth to Haynesfield in an uncharacteristically dull performance. Pitched Perfectly is talented, but must show he is more than a speed horse to be genuinely considered. Cliffy's Future, on the other hand, darted from the tail end of the field, went through an opening at the rail and nearly ran down a tough counterpart. He seems to be putting it all together and, as expected with offspring of The Cliff's Edge, is excelling around two turns. Watch out for him in the Gotham.

Flying Comments

When horses run like Commentator, we are reminded of how well an animal can perform when given the time to develop. He may not show the bald speed that he used to, but Commentator definitely runs like a horse with the balance of maturity and innate pace. For a horse who, in human years, is a 42+ year old running against 24+ year olds, he showed us brilliance can flourish with patience. As far as his last two wins, including Saturday's Mass 'Cap romp, he has proven that he may possibly be a Classic contender, able to keep his brilliant pace over a distance of ground. In this, the synthetics may help him get the extra furlong.

On the other side of the age spectrum, it was fantastic to see my highly touted Charitable Man win like a more mature horse in the Futurity last weekend at Belmont. He runs a lot like his father, Lemon Drop Kid, and looks to be in great hands. Unlike most people, I like the jump into two turns from a seven-furlong race- but only if the horse's pedigree screams distance. Being by a Belmont Stakes winning sire, out of a Halo/Seeking the Gold cross on his damside- he should have no issues negotiating 8.5 furlongs.

A horse to watch out for next time he runs is runner up, Flying Pegasus. This colt is by Fusaichi Pegasus out of multiple stakes winner (4 of her 5 wins were stakes, in 13 starts), Lilly Capote. Born in 1992, this filly had the misfortune of being among the throng of great fillies of that year (with the two best being in the same barn with her: Serena's Song and Flanders). Watch as Lilly Capote gives a great showing of herself in what would become an epic race. This filly, of great scope, finally meshed well with a stallion when she produced Flying Pegasus, who looks like he has a huge future.

The Fantastic Fourteen: Juveniles


1. Flying Pegasus Can rate and is bred to be a brilliant young horse.
2. Charitable Man Simply the fastest numbers and got the better of #1 when drafting off his pace.
3. Regal Ransom This once-raced colt ran a big number with bulldog-like tenacity. Will also LOVE synthetics.
4. Azul Leon If he is healthy, he is by far the best of the west.
5. Midshipman It's a shame for Baffert to lose one; going to be difficult to beat around two turns in the Norfolk.
6. Cribnote His debut and impressive botched race in the Hopeful make you think that he (though bred to be a miler) could be a really special type.
7. Coronet of a Baron Always there, with natural speed, and tough to beat- but he's been beaten by a superior animal in his last two.
8. Run Away and Hide A crafty type with a push-button style that could stretch out beyond a mile if trained correctly.
9. Brave Victory This huge animal lopes along but runs impressively in each race. He was second to Regal Ransom and then came back yesterday (9/20) to win impressively over 7 panels at Belmont.
10. Terrain Had his race completely taken away twice in the Arlington-Washington Futurity, and deserved the win. He has fast numbers and is from the family of Unbridled with talented juvenile Sky Mesa on top. Should improve around two turns and can run on anything.
11. Break Water Edison His last race was back too soon, and that was evident in his performance, but it will help him next out around two turns. Watch out for this son of the ever-improving Lemon Drop Kid.
12. Vineyard Haven Ran a slow number and had everything his way. He has two things going for him: Frankel as his trainer and he is an absolutely gorgeous gray/roan.
13. Keep Thinking This is the best-bred two year old I have seen, by A.P. Indy out of Denebola (French classic winner) who was shuffled back and swept past all but one when second behind Royal Vindication (who barely didn't make the list) this week at Belmont. He will be heard from soon.
14. Munnings This expensive colt ran well despite a dwelt start in the Hopeful. Pletcher will get the best out of him, but I'm not yet convinced that optimum will be able to compete with the top five here.

Happy Racing everyone.