looking back - initial Derby picks

It seems that my Original Kentucky Quatorze, from back in early winter (late November), has actually been holding form.
1. Flying Pegasus
2. Break Water Edison
3. Charitable Man
4. Skipadate
5. Old Fashioned
6. Regal Ransom
7. Indygo Mountain
8. Royal Vindication
9. Hello Broadway
10. Trinity Magic
11. Midshipman
12. Capt Candyman Can
13. Vineyard Haven
14. Well Positioned

And then, again, on January 6, as the year turned, here were my projections:

1. Charitable Man
2. Break Water Edison
3. Quality Road
4. Old Fashioned
5. I Want Revenge
6. Indygo Mountain
7. Flying Pegasus
8. Hello Broadway
9. Trinity Magic
10. Shafted
11. Silver City
12. Chocolate Candy
13. Square Eddie
14. Vineyard Haven

I stand by Break Water Edison, Vineyard Haven, and Well Positioned near the top. Something is amiss with them; hence him being out of action. I Want Revenge, Old Fashioned, Regal Ransom, Hello Broadway, Charitable Man, Quality Road and Flying Pegasus will all (or have already) proven their worth.

On a side note, I do think Charitable Man and Theregoesjojo (if they like the surface) are going to give the rest all they can handle in the Blue Grass. Charitable Man is still the most talented of this generation, until proven otherwise. Also, General Quarters is your best long-shot bet in that race. Time to enjoy racing!

My Current Ky Derby Quatorze (with Adolphson Speed Projection Rating)

1. I Want Revenge 111
2. Quality Road 110
3. Theregoesjojo 109
4. Charitable Man 107
5. Dunkirk 107
6. Freisan Fire 106
7. Flying Pegasus 105
8. Win Willy 104
9. Chocolate Candy 104
10. Old Fashioned 102
11. General Quarters 102
12. Pioneerof the Nile 101
13. Regal Ransom 101
14. Hold Me Back 99

kentucky quatorze 3/17/09

1. Quality Road
I picked him in the FOY, and now he moves right back up to the top. Bet him in the Florida Derby- I have a feeling that he will be the Derby favorite afterward.
2. Charitable Man
After six works, the usually conservative McLaughlin is thinking Blue Grass. This colt was screaming for two turns as a juvenile, so the jump will be no problem. Watch out for him, he was my original #1.
3. Theregoesjojo
Most exciting kick of any horse.
4. I Want Revenge
So impressive that he may scare everyone away from the Wood. He’s fast, explosive, and has that wonderful low-head action of his sire and grandsire.
5. The Pamplemousse
Looked impressive, and simply needs to do the same on dirt.
6. Hello Broadway
He ran up charging on the outside only to spin his wheels. I hold out hope that he’s as brilliant as he seems. He will be incredibly tough in the Wood/Ark Derby.
7. Flying Pegasus
Talented and improving. Throw out his dirt excursion- his sire hated the wet. He was bound to bounce a bit after a brilliant comeback. Watch out next time. Will probably wind up in the Wood, or wait a week for the Arkansas Derby. I doubt they’ll try him on synthetic this late in the game.
8. Friesan Fire
Keeps improving. My only worry is over-racing. He is definitely a slop-lover, but his race made me think that he is possibly peaking too early.
9. Old Fashioned
Once again looked less like the brilliant closing quarter of the Remsen (after a :50 half, mind you). Despite this, we should see him at near peak in the next- then we’ll know what we’re dealing with.
10. General Quarters
Love that he lost- now he’s a wonderfully overlooked horse. His race 2 back was impressive enough to keep this position.
11. Take the Points
Loved his race in the Sham. Earned my respect. Would like to see him taken to the Illinois Derby and win easily, or earn his keep in the Wood.
12. Dunkirk
A bit of a loper, but full of natural talent. Still, he has to show a quick turn of foot and a devastating win vs. extremely talented colts in the Florida Derby.
13. Imperial Council
Needless to say, he is the epitome of dangerous in the Wood.
14. Break Water Edison
We have yet to hear what went wrong. I still think the world of him, and I refuse to accept his last two. I think he hated the raceday track. I think he hated the blinkers, and I think he got crap rides in both races. Take him back up to the Wood Memorial and let him run on a surface he loves.

This Week's Kentucky Quatorze

My Derby 14

1. Hello Broadway
Next race will be a breakout.
2. Flying Pegasus
Talented and improving.
3. Quality Road
I picked him in the FOY, and now he moves right back up to the top.
4. Charitable Man
Guess who is back on the work tab? My original #1. He has enough bottom on him to run twice and make the Derby.
5. Theregoesjojo
Short horse last out is dangerous in the Florida Derby.
6. The Pamplemousse
Looked impressive, and simply needs to do the same on dirt.
7. Old Fashioned
His Southwest was underwhelming, but I think he's all class and deserves this exact spot.
8. Friesan Fire
Keeps improving. My only worry is over-racing.
9. I Want Revenge
Moves to AQU this week. I would like to see a break out performance versus the likes of Imperial Council.
10. General Quarters
Overlooked, improving, and beautifully bred.
11. Take the Points
Loved his race in the Sham. Earned my respect.
12. Dunkirk
A bit of a loper who doesn't have the flash of the top few here- but has a huge amount of natural ability.
13. Imperial Council
Could be anything. I loved his last two, and I think he'll make I Want Revenge and Haynesfield work for every stride in the Gotham.
14. Pioneerof the Nile
Baffert remains his best asset.

Lemons Anyone? - Kentucky Quatorze

As we get ready for the first two substantial sophomore races, let us review my current Kentucky Quatorze: Michael's Top 14 Derby Horses. I have also taken the liberty of tacking on the remainder of my Top 30, in order.

Rank-Horse-Comment
1. Charitable Man - I hope he gets on the work-tab soon; still the classiest of the '08 juveniles, despite my juggling of the top 10.
2. Break Water Edison - The 2nd half of my Lemon Drop Duo.
3. Quality Road - The most auspicious debut of 2008, while out of a full sister to Ajina.
4. Old Fashioned - Beautiful finish, but after a :50 half.
5. I Want Revenge - The best finish of any juvenile this year, in defeat.
6. Indygo Mountain - Beautiful colt should win the LeCompte, despite the class jump.
7. Flying Pegasus - I am this horse's one-man fan club, especially after this race against #1.
8. Hello Broadway - Tagg will get rid of his greenness.
9. Trinity Magic - Something was amiss with this special colt at DeD; do not forget him.
10. Shafted - Brilliant allowance winner by Mineshaft out of Twist Afleet, with a great kick.
11. Silver City - Easily won a one-turn allowance with class; if he stretches with the same ease, he will catapult to the top.
12. Chocolate Candy - I believe he will improve by leaps on regular dirt.
13. Square Eddie - Still could be better on real dirt, and has a great trainer in his corner.
14. Vineyard Haven - Dubai is his worst enemy.


Worth the Look:
15. Midshipman - Ran well in the BC, but didn't blow me away; Dubai works against him.
16. Haynesfield - Runs like a miler.
17. Fiddler's Afleet - Tough NY-bred colt has been running really well against the best.
18. Unionize - The maiden I think will be known in the next month or two.
19. Tranquil Manner - A.P. Indy son of Composure who is figuring it out.
20. Point Encounter - Gaines-trainee ran a 1:14.87 6.5 furlong debut; unheard of by a Point Given.
21. Pioneer of the Nile - I fail to be impressed by him, despite the hub-bub.
22. Capt Candyman Can - A gritty, well-trained, feisty, fast and classy MILER.
23. Giant Oak - Loafed along to run well in the KYJC; should improve.
24. Beethoven - Perfect trip worked out in his favor; must show that special something to be taken seriously.


Respected, But I Would Be Surprised:
25. Azul Leon - Had a bad trip in the CashCall, but this miler still closed well.
26. Royal Vindication - Runs big numbers in defeat; needs to finish.
27. West Side Bernie - A genuine two-turn horse who can run on real or synthetic.
28. Notonthesamepage - HUGE #'s and a relaxed stride with a miler's pedigree still make you a miler.
29. Atomic Rain - May have the most room for improvement of any here.
30. Toulouse Lautrec - A maiden with a hot head who will be tough up to nine furlongs.

Charity Break

Back in the summer I was touting two juveniles that I thought could be huge threats in subsequent months and (possibly) years. Both of these sons of Lemon Drop Kid have made their marks.

I do not believe Charitable Man, the winner of the Grade 2 Futurity Stakes, and Break Water Edison, winner of the Grade 3 Nashua Stakes, will have gone by the wayside when we recollect the crop of 2006. The former will be a force if he is healthy in 2009, and the latter will most likely win the Remsen this weekend. Let the games begin...my current Kentucky Derby Fabulous 14:

1. Flying Pegasus
2. Break Water Edison
3. Charitable Man
4. Skipadate
5. Old Fashioned
6. Regal Ransom
7. Indygo Mountain
8. Royal Vindication
9. Hello Broadway
10. Trinity Magic
11. Midshipman
12. Capt Candyman Can
13. Vineyard Haven
14. Well Positioned