Saratoga: Test & Whitney

Test

2. Cat Moves 98

6. Flashing 98

5. First Passage 93

4. Heart Ashley 90

7. Reforestation 89

8. All of Her Twist 88

1. Pretty Prolific 87

3. Olde Glamour 82

Flashing had the heat put on her in the Mother Goose, and that 9 furlong sprint should have her wound pretty tightly for this race.  I think she is the best bet to beat Cat Moves.  Otherwise, Cat Moves is a tough filly to beat.  Tony Dutrow comes from the school of Frankel, and that means that their horses run at a top-level race-after-race... not just one huge peak performance.  First Passage wins this if she repeats her last race, but I doubt a 10 length jump in her last race will not beget a bounce.  Even with the bounce, she's really well-bred and her sire-given grit and overall class will keep her near the front at the end.  Heart Ashley needs to learn to rate to win this, and the rest are very closely bunched in talent.  Best Bets: Cat Moves & First Passage. 

Whitney

4. Macho Again  108

7. Commentator 107

1. Smooth Air 106

6. Dry Martini 103

3. Bullsbay 100

5. Tizway 98

I can see Commentator going out to his customary lead, but being run down by the relentless Saratoga-loving Macho Uno.  This horse always seems to beat me when I count him out, so let's hope some faith helps me.  Smooth Air and Dry Martini will be coming, as well.  I do fear that Commentator has lost a step.  Best Bets: Macho Again & Smooth Air.  

Arlington stakes picks

Secretariat

9. Black Bear Island 96

10. Giant Oak 94

1a. Driving Snow 92

4. Laureate Conductor 92

5. Oil Man 91

7. Take the Points 91

8. Reb 89

3. Proceed Bee 86

6. Quite a Handful 85

1. Cliffy's Future 80

2. Hoosier Kingdom 76

Black Bear Island, if he runs like his Dante win (at 10.5 furlongs), wins this.  Giant Oak, if he doesn't regress again, runs well, and Driving Snow looks to be something special.  Clement is always dangerous at this meet, so watch out for Laureate Conductor.  Oil Man, Take the Points, and Reb are great bets to be in there for the exotics, but none seem to have a stronger punch than the previous four.  Best bets: Black Bear Island and Laureate Conductor.

Beverly D

5. Mad About You 101

7. Dynaforce 100

1. Alnadana 99

2. Pure Clan 99

4. Black Mamba 98

8. Denomnation 96

3. Points of Grace 95

6. Tizaqueena 90

Really tough race.  If the real Dynaforce shows up, she can dispose of Tizaqueena on the corner and open up on this field.  Mad About You, if she returns to her form of last year, has the class to draw away from this field, and Pure Clan & Black Mamba will be coming, no matter what.  The safest bets are Pure Clan and Mad About You.  

Arlington Million

8. Cima de Triomphe 109

6. Gio Ponti 108

7. Gloria de Campeao 107

1. Einstein 105

4. Stotsfold 104

3. Just As Well 102

2. Presious Passion 101

5. Mr. Sidney 99

9. Recapture the Glory 90

Cima ran fourth to the top 3 turf horses in the world in his last race.  Enough said.  Gio Ponti is going to be there no matter what, but I think he may have peaked in his last race when winning easily at a distance that should have been slightly out of his range.  Gloria de Campeao loves the left-handed course and distance, and will be sitting in the proverbial catbird seat.  I love Pascal Bary, his trainer, and respect the hell out of his ability to ship winners over here.  Einstein is always a good bet for in-the-money, but his numbers are a length or two too slow for the top three.  Best Bets:  Gio Ponti and Gloria de Campeao.  

Weekend Stakes - Fri/Sat

Lake George Stakes
This is as wide open a race as you will find.  The filly who looks the most promising is the wonderfully-bred Lady Shakespeare.  There are also a couple fillies in here who look like they will go off at a decent value (Mary's Follies and Strike the Bell), and then there is the crowd favorite, Shug McGaughey's Consequence.  I could go on and on, but I will make a quick prediction.  Kiawah Cat is trained by Mott and moves to the arms of Julien Leparoux.  Leparoux is amazing on horses with her come-from-behind style.  

1. Kiawah Cat

2. The Best Day Ever

3. Consequence

4. Lady Shakespeare

West Virginia Derby

It's hard to pick against Mine that Bird, especially in this field, but I have to say that the pace scenario is dead-against him.  I will take a shot and pick the Canadian, Monty's Best, who is a really quality colt.  He ran a great second in the Iriquois in his lone dirt start last year.  Since then he has won both his starts back at 6 and 8.5 furlongs over Woodbine's Polytrack.  He may be better on

 conventional dirt, though, and his pedigree can stretch to the distance.  He should do well sitting right off Big Drama and Soul Warrior and out sprinting Mine That Bird to the wire.

1. Monty's Best

2. Mine That Bird

3. Big Drama

4. Soul Warrior

Diana Stakes

It will take something huge to stop Forever Together from winning this race.  Rutherienne may go to Monmouth to avoid her, and Criticism would have to set a :52 half on firm turf to win this over the Champion.  Look for the other Clement filly to run well, also.  

1. Forever Together

2. Rutherienne

3. Criticism

4. Carribean Sunset

Jim Dandy Stakes

Charitable Man gets a pace set-up and distance that fit him.  He's a talented horse and if he's right, he wins this- no matter how good Kensai is getting.  The six pound distance between Warrior's Reward and Kensai will come into play, though, and Convocation is improving

 quickly enough to make some noise.  

1. Charitable Man

2. Warrior's Reward

3. Kensai

4. Convocation

Thoughts on the Man o' War-G1

MAN O' WAR STAKES
BELMONT PARK
11 Furlongs - Turf
Grade 1

The feeling here is that it is a lot tighter than it seems. I think Marsh Side and Quijano are being overlooked. To me, Dancing Forever is the horse to beat, not Gio Ponti (as the odds will tell you). Additionally, Grant Couturier is really dangerous if he is in better shape than his trainer is letting on. Midships is a wild card, but I doubt he will run to his lofty expectations here. For value's sake, I would throw Marsh Side on top and see if he floats up to 10-1.

4. Marsh Side
8. Dancing Forever
9. Gio Ponti
3. Quijano
2. Grand Couturier
7. Midships
5. Interpatation
6. Chinchon
1. Musketier

Fasig Tipton Saratoga Top Picks

From the upcoming Saratoga Select Sale:

My top 4 hips to watch for this sale are as follows:

1.)  Hip 7   Ch. f. 08 (Henny Hughes-Sass Me*Carson City) (4/30)

This daughter of the first crop of speedster Henny Hughes (by Hennessy), comes from a sire who could carry his speed around one turn up to 8.5 furlongs (second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Belmont), while coming from a dam whose half sisters are two of the fastest female sprinters we have seen in quite some time: Madcap Escapade and Dubai Escapade.  The former was able to carry her speed up to a mile around two turns, and was also a daughter of Hennessy, making this filly a very close relation.  Add to this the bold precociousness and damsire prowess of Carson City (arguably the in the best three juvenile sires of our time, along with Meadowlake and Phone Trick... and he is also the damsire of Barbaro), and you have a filly who looks like she will absolutely fly.  And, fly early.

2. Hip 66  B.c.08 (Mr. Greeley-Angel's Nest*Storm Cat) (3/14)

Mr. Greeley always shocks me with his quality as a sire.  He was a stellar sprinter/miler his entire career, but never flashed the kind of brilliance that hinted at his chances as a stallion.  He tends to beget good milers with high cruising rates, on all three surfaces.  Add to this the best-bred dam in the sale, Angel's Nest (Storm Cat-Miesque), and you have a colt who is bred to run on anything, and be a superior miler.  Miesque has given her offspring the same brilliant turn of foot that she had, and Storm Cat adds speed, grit, and classic brilliance to his offspring.  This colt should be the sale topper, but Mr. Greeley still is not as flashy as the A.P. Indys and Unbridled's Songs.  

3. Hip 110  DB.f.08 (Giant's Causeway-Dancethruthestorm*Thunder Gulch) (2/15)(ONT)

This filly has Queen's Plate written all over her.  By Giant's Causeway, from the great Sam-Son family of Dance Smartly, with the endurance and classic grittiness of Thunder Gulch added.  This filly will run on everything short of broken glass.  Enough said.  

4. Hip 221  Gr.c.08 (Unbridled's Song-Pure Symmetry*Storm Cat/Serena's Song)(3/15)

What has to be the second-best bred colt in the sale is this son of Unbridled's Song, out of Pure Symmetry (Storm Cat-Serena's Song).  Not only was Serena's Song an amazing racemare, but she has passed on her genes to produce multiple G1 and G2 winners.  If you add in the Unbridled's Song influence, you have a colt with a similar genetic makeup as MGSW Harlington (Unbridled-Serena's Song), but with more speed with the addition of Storm Cat, and more scope (Trolley Song/Caro).  This colt has classic distance and tactical speed written all over him.

DERBY DAY STAKES PICKS (w/ ASP)

ADOLPHSON SPEED RATINGS

PICKS - Saturday (DERBY Day)

Race 6 - The Churchill Downs Sprint
1. My Pal Charlie 103
3. Kodiak Kowboy 102
2. The Roundhouse 99
9. Sok Sok 98
5. Spotsgone 97
4. Ide Like a Double 94
6. Accredit 93
8. Silver Edition 92
7. Hewitts 88

This is the always-important 2nd-race off a layoff for My Pal Charlie. Kodiak Kowboy will be flying late along w/ The Roundhouse, and Sok Sok will be setting a rapid pace. This sets up for My Pal Charlie.

Race 7 - The Eight Belles Stakes
1. Just Jenda 94
4. Four Gifts 93
10. Auspicious 92
7. Loveyou Everybody 88
3. C.S. Silk 86
5. Warrior Maid 85
8. Lady's Laughter 84
2. She's Extreme 72
6. Dave's Revenge 72

Four Gifts and Auspicious are coming up to the race really well for Asmussen (trainer), but Just Jenda has been pointed for this race for a while. She will be tough.

Race 8 - Churchill Distaff Turf Mile
2. Visit 98
9. Elusive Lady 94
10. Rustic Flame 92
1. Lemon Chiffon 92
11. Dawn After Dawn 91
7. Ballymore Lady 91
6. Sugar Mint 90
3. Tizaqueena 90
5. Zee Zee 85
8. Stealin' Kisses 85
4. Rasierra 82

Visit and Elusive Lady are the mares to beat. Visit is the better of the two... she just needs a good trip. If she gets that, she'll run them into the ground and nip them at the wire.

Race 9 - Humana Distaff
9. Game Face 102
5. Secret Gypsy 101
4. Bear Now 99
7. Royale Michele 96
2. Dubai Majesty 95
3. Informed Decision 95
1. Tiz to Dream 90
8. Modification 89
6. Temple Street 79

Secret Gypsy is the fastest and Game Face is the most reliable. At 7 furlongs of distance, I pick the latter, especially after her last race looked so good.

Race 10 - Woodford Reserve Turf Classic
8. Cowboy Cal 105
6. Einstein 103
3. Proudinsky 102
4. Court Vision 102
9. Zambezi Sun 102
1. Artiste Royal 100
5. Yate's Black Cat 99
2. El Caballo 98
10. Thorn Song 96
7. Furthest Land 95

Einstein is the horse to beat and Proudinsky is really reliable. Court Vision and Zambezi will be flying late, but prefer longer races. The overlooked horse in the race is Cowboy Cal, who is fast enough to compete, and is always tough to run down. I think he will hold off Einstein and outsprint the rest. If not, Zambezi Sun is the wild card. He is faster than all of them-- but he needs more distance.

Race 11 - Kentucky Derby
13. I Want Revenge 111
7. Papa Clem 107
15. Dunkirk 106
6. Friesan Fire 106
16. Poineerof the Nile 105
1. West Side Bernie 104
12. General Quarters 104
19. Desert Party 103
2. Musket Man 103
17. Summer Bird 102
20. Flying Private 100
10. Regal Ransom 99
11. Chocolate Candy 98
5. Hold Me Back 97
14. Atomic Rain 97
3. Mr. Hot Stuff 96
18. Nowhere to Hide 94
8. Mine That Bird 93
4. Advice 92
9. Join in the Dance 90

In a fairly run race, I Want Revenge is the fastest. Papa Clem is going to be great odds, and is a tough tough tough competitor. Dunkirk will be flying late but needs a fast pace, which is not a given. Friesan Fire is in peak shape, and will be right there. He was my #1 for a long time, but he has to outkick I Want Revenge- which is impossible if I Want Revenge is in peak condition. The wildcard in this race is Pioneerof the Nile. He has never run in dirt, but is brilliant. If he likes the dirt, he is in the top 2, and maybe even beats them all. I Want Revenge is the safest bet.

Stakes Picks for Oaks Day

ADOLPHSON SPEED RATINGS
PICKS - Friday (Oaks Day)

Race 6 - Aegon Turf Sprint
6. Chamberlain Bridge 100
2. Smart Enough 100
5. Due Date 98
7. Cannonball 97
3. Hewitts 95
4. Captivating Cat 94
8. Accredit 94
1. Chitoz 88
9. Jazz Nation 88

Chamberlain Bridge will be hard to run down, but the only horse who looks good enough to do it is Smart Enough. They are my 1-2. Due Date will be coming late and Cannonball will be right there.

Race 7 - The Louisville Distaff
4. One Caroline 105
2. Zenyatta 104
1. Swift Temper 98
8. Unbridled Belle 98
3. Miss Isella 92
6. Modification 91
5. Unforgotten 88
7. French Kiss 86

Zenyatta (HUGE favorite) is vulnerable in a race with a front-runner, One Caroline, who has run numbers just as fast as her, and will have very little competition on the pace.

Race 8 - Edgewood Stakes
7. Magical Affair 89
10. Laragh 88
11. Diamond Tags 87
1. Excelente 86
4. Abbott Hall 86
8. More of the Best 84
3. Banker's Choice 83
2. Fleet Streak 79
6. Complicity 77
5. Walloon 75
9. Mein Fraulein 72
12. Kiss Mine 69

Magical Affair has the right running style to run down the front-running Laragh and Diamond Tags, while Excelente and Abbot Hall should be right in the mix.

Race 9 - Alysheba Stakes
8. Dr.Pleasure 104
1. Macho Again 103
5. Bullsbay 102
3. Mambo in Seattle 102
10. Informed 100
2. Ready Set 96
4. Cool Coal Man 94
6. Star Guitar 93
9. Prom Shoes 92
7. Shift in Power 86

Dr. Pleasure, like his mother, is putting it all together at late age. Macho Again is the horse to beat, while Maryland horse (woohoo!), Bullsbay is looking like he is in peak form.

Race 10 - American Turf
3. Battle of Hastings (GB) 94
5. Skipadate 93
6. Bittel Road 92
1. Stormalory 91
2. Jack Spratt 88
7. Turfiste 85
9. Orthodox 82
8. Bunker HIll 80
4. Bruce N Autumn 79

If Skipadate and Bittel Road return to their old forms, they will be 1-2. Otherwise, Battle of Hastings is the horse to beat.

Race 11 - Kentucky Oaks
6. Rachel Alexandra 107
8. Flying Spur 104
5. Justwhistledixie 100
7. Nan 96
4. Gabby's Golden Gal 94
2. Be Fair 92
1. Tweeter 85
3. Stone Legacy 70

Flying Spur is dangerous, and Justwhistledixie is tough, but Rachel Alexandra should win. She is just the best.