Speed Ratings for FOY & Sham

Fountain of Youth
11. Quality Road 105
9. Capt. Candyman Can 103
8. Break Water Edison 101
2. Theregoesjojo 100
12. This Ones for Phil 99
4. Take the Points SCR (99)
3. Notonthesamepage 98
10. Taqarub 96
6. Rocketing Returns 95
7. Beethoven 95
1. Bee Cee Cee 93
5. Jack Spratt 84

Sham
7. Mr. Hot Stuff 100
5. The Pamplemousse 99
12. Take the Points 96
10. Mark S the Cooler 89
9. Ventana 88
2. Smart Bid 87
1. Hi Flyin Indy 84
8. Bourbon Bay 85
4. Lifeline 83
11. Unbridled Roman 82
3. Tiz True 80
6. Balfour Park 70

southwestern oracle

In the Southwest, it should be a gray trifecta. I think the race may wind up being the race of the season, so far. I suspect that if a pace battle develops between Old Fashioned and Silver City, I actually think Silver City will come out on top. But, I do not think he will win if he is "in battle." I think the best money is placed on Poltergeist, who will probably go off around 5 or 8-1.

Flat Out completes the exotics. If Poltergeist does not run his race, I am all over Silver City. Not only because I am anti-bandwagon (Old Fashioned), but I am convinced this horse will wind up being a miler or 9-10 furlong horse, he just has more speed than he knows what to do with. The biggest thing going against him is that Dominguez is perhaps the savviest pace rider in America, behind Prado and Pino. Those three are amazing at getting horses to either set or sit right off the pace if they're on a speedy animal. If Old Fashioned wins with all this happening, then he gets my respect.

1. Silver City
2. Old Fashioned
3. Poltergiest
4. Flat Out

Other big predictions coming up? Well, even though I am often wrong, here is me being an oracle:

-Quality Road will win the Fountain of Youth, granted he is in it.
-Sumo will win the Tampa Bay Derby.
-Hello Broadway will win the Wood Memorial.
-Flying Pegasus will turn the tables on Freisan Fire in the Louisiana Derby.
-I Want Revenge will turn the tables on rival Pioneerof the Nile in their next meeting.

An Updated Kentucky Quatorze

1. Theregoesjojo
Still the most promising I have seen.
2. Old Fashioned
May be head and shoulders better than these, but I have to see it.
3. Flying Pegasus
Justified my faith at FG. He is dangerous and talented.
5. Hello Broadway
Along with Flying Pegasus, he's looking like the next race will be a breakout.
6. Silver City
I do not buy that he is a sprinter. Runs with a lot of class.
4. Friesan Fire
Looked good Saturday. Let's see him run away from an improving Flying Pegasus.
7. I Want Revenge
Was too close to the lead at SA. I think the blinkers worked against him.
8. Break Water Edison
Do not count him out. He is built to be a Triple Crown horse, and is very fast.
9. Pioneerof the Nile
Finally gained some of my respect this weekend, and half of that is Baffert.
10. Quality Road
Looked good in a work this week, and I think he is already being overlooked.
11. Poltergeist
I expect him to
12. Musket Man
Talented, tough runner who is undefeated and has run a 90+ beyer while looking to stretch out.
13. Capt Candyman Can
If the Derby was a mile, he would be in the top two. His last was stellar.
14. Indygo Mountain
I will not quite give up on him yet. He is still talented and deserves respect.

The first Super Weekend of '09

My favorite picks this weekend are definitely Magnum in the San Antonio on Sunday, and Flying Spur in the Silverbulletday on Saturday. Both look to be much better than they are getting credit, and Magnum especially will be a huge price. I loved his San Pasqual run, and he used to be able to run 112 Beyers, which would be better than anyone else in the race. Flying Spur ran a huge number last out, and has the pedigree (Giant's Causeway - Lakeway) to be a huge filly. I project she will be one of the top three fillies by the end of the year.

This Weekend's Graded Stakes Picks

Aqueduct - 8th - Whirlaway Stakes
1. Peace Town
2. Haynesfield
3. Zooger
4. Hehasnosay

Fair Grounds - 6th - Mineshaft Hcp
1. My Pal Charlie
2. Grasshopper
3. Good and Lucky
4. Honest Man

FG - 7th - Fair Grounds Hcp
1. Jimmy Simms
2. French Beret
3. Corrupt
4. Windward Islands

FG - 8th - Silverbulletday Stakes
1. Flying Spur
2. Just Jenda
3. War Echo
4. Four Gifts

FG - 9th - Risen Star Stakes
1. Indygo Mountain
2. Flying Pegasus
3. Friesan Fire
4. Dumar

Santa Anita - 6th - Las Virgenes Stakes
1. Haka
2. Toro Bonito
3. Century Park
4. Stardom Bound

SA - 7th - Thunder Road Hcp
1. Matto Mondo
2. Monterey Jazz
3. Yankee Bravo
4. Monba

SA - 8th - Robert B. Lewis Stakes
1. I Want Revenge
2. Brother Keith
3. Pioneerof the Nile
4. Bittel Road

SA - 9th - Strub Stakes
1. Wishful Tomcat
2. Gio Ponti
3. Medjool
4. Cowboy Cal

Sunday

Santa Anita - 8th - San Antonio Hcp
1. Magnum
2. Informed
3. Marchfield
4. Tiago

An Updated Kentucky Quatorze

1. Theregoesjojo
2. Old Fashioned
3. I Want Revenge
4. Break Water Edison
5. Quality Road
6. Poltergeist
7. Flying Pegasus
8. Indygo Mountain
9. Silver City
10. Hello Broadway
11. Musket Man
12. Shafted
13. Friesan Fire
14. Pioneerof the Nile

Thoughts from last weekend:

Nicanor looked good and strong until something obviously went awry with him. I was worried that he would have the action of an ordinary horse, but the way he ran was exceptional until the incident. Watch out next time.

Gulfstream was a sandbox of a deep surface, with nothing moving from the back of the pack. This should especially make (my pick in the Donn) Great Hunter's run look that much better. He and Capt Candyman Can were two of the few horses I saw making up any ground on that course.

In the Hutcheson (which I am so glad that it is back in its traditional late January position), Capt Candyman Can proved once again that he's a very, very classy miler. I will be very surprised if he stretcheds beyond 8.5 furlongs, but I am often wrong. Candy Ride, his sire (of whom you know that I am a big fan), looked the same way and could run up to 10 furlongs. He has his sire's fast, efficient action, but his female family is laden with sprinters and milers.

The real story of this race was Hello Broadway. He becomes a huge shot after running on the lead, and obviously being a closer. What I liked was his grit in defeat. He was out of place and still ran credibly. I doubt Broken Vow's sire stamina influence, but I'll give this colt a lot of credit. Something was obviously amiss with my (previously #1 Derby pick) Break Water Edison. Nothing has surfaced in the press, but I am sure something was wrong. Even before, when running poorly, there was a huge excuse for him. I'll keep him in my top tier.

C.S. Silk, who ran one of the most impressive juvenile filly races last year, looked once again like a horse who disliked the track in the Forward Gal. Perhaps it was that she was stuck back in an unfavorable position, but I am prone to think that she likes it on the lead on a synthetic course. Frolic's Dream proved once again that under 7 furlongs is her turf in the division. That is, until she rematches with my projected best filly sprinter of 2009, Elusive Heat, who ran off the screen on January 29th.

In the Holy Bull, Beethoven ran credibly, but I worry still about his endurance capacity. The race was one of the more boring Derby preps I have ever seen, but there were a few horses who are definitely dangerous next out. Most notably, West Side Bernie, who kept coming, despite the distance being too far too soon.

The Donn Handicap was nearly as boring as the Holy Bull, with a miler wearing down a sub-par pacemaker. As mentioned, Great Hunter ran a credible race, and Einstein proved again that he is not a fan of Gulfstream. He needs more to grab ahold of, and that course was obviously very loose and slow.

Kip Deville proved once again that American turf horses are sub-par, when winning at what is not his optimal distance. He looks about 2 lengths slower at 9 furlongs, and his number reflected it. Court Vision, who has always been a bit overrated, ran well, but was poorly ridden. He should have been dropped to the tail of the field and given a wide run. The big disappointment was that Red Rocks, who has the best kick in the field, did not show up. He ran like a bothered horse, but will be tough next out if all is well.

On the west coast, the beautiful Jibboom ran a better race than she got credit for when being passed by her outstanding stablemate, Ventura, but digging in to chase her hole and lose by a length. They drew off from the field and really put on a nice show of talent.

Top 25 Stallion Values

Top Stallion Values
Stallion
Location / Fee / Farm / Sire and Damsire

1. Candy Ride
KY $12,500 Hill 'n' Dale Ride the Rails/Candy Stripes
2. Benchmark
CA $4,000 River's Edge Farm Alydar/Danzig
3. Hat Trick
KY $12,500 Walmac Sunday Silence/Lost Code
4. Hurrican Run
IRE $25,963 Coolmore Montjeu/Serumu
5. Dehere
KY $20,000 Coolmore Deputy Minister/Secretariat
6. Louis Quatorze
MD $6,000 Murmur Farm Sovereign Dancer/On To Glory
7. Doneraile Court
KY $7,500 Stonewall Seattle Slew/Stop the Music
8. Skimming
CAN $3,253 Pacific Stud Nureyev/Lyphard
9. Discreet Cat
KY $25,000 Darley Forestry/Private Account
10. Cougar Cat
KY $5,000 Richland Hills Storm Cat/General Meeting
11. Easing Along
KY $10,000 Claiborne Storm Cat/Alydar
12. War Front
KY $12,500 Claiborne Danzig/Rubiano
13. Repent
KY $7,500 Vinery Louis Quatorze/Cipayo
14. Ivan Denisovich
IRE $5,193 Coolmore Danehill/Kris S.
15. Eavesdropper
PA $5,000 Walmac PA Kingmambo/Secretariat
16. Mingun
KY $5,000 Lane's End A.P. Indy/Nureyev
17. Lion Hearted
MD $5,000 Northview S.S. Storm Cat/Alydar
18. Stephen Got Even
KY $7,500 Lane's End A.P. Indy/Cox's Ridge
19. Seeking the Dia
KY $10,000 Hill 'n' Dale Storm Cat/Seeking the Gold
20. Political Force
KY $12,500 Claiborne Unbridled's Song/Glitterman
21. Astronomer Royal
FR $10,385 Reboursiere/Montaigu Danzig/Easy Goer
22. Jeremy
IRE $10,385 Irish National Stud Danehill Dancer/Arazi
23. Good Reward
KY $10,000 Three Chimneys Storm Cat/Seeking the Gold
24. Invasor
KY $28,000 Shadwell Candy Stripes/Interprete*ARG
25. Macho Uno
KY $25,000 Adena Springs Holy Bull/Blushing Groom

Kentucky Quatorze : Kentucky Derby Top 14, as of 1/26/09

1. Break Water Edison
2. Theregoesjojo
3. Old Fashioned
4. I Want Revenge
5. Musket Man
6. Quality Road
7. Poltergeist
8. Flying Pegasus
9. Indygo Mountain
10. Silver City
11. Hello Broadway
12. Dunkirk
13. Shafted
14. Friesan Fire

Knocking on the Door
Chocolate Candy
Trinity Magic
Square Eddie
Patena
Tranquil Manner
Pioneerof the Nile
Notonthesamepage
Cliffy's Future
The Pamplemousse
Keep Thinking

Break Water Edison inherits the top spot this week, as his half brother Charitable Man has disappeared from the work-tab since October due to injury. The Pamplemousse normally would not get a nod from me (given how everything went his way at Santa Anita), but I respect anything that hits the track from the Julio Canani barn. He is one of the top five trainers in the United States and must be respected.

Chocolate Candy ran exactly like everyone expected in northern California. He is a talented colt who needs to run faster than he has. His pedigree screams natural dirt, so it is nice to see that he can perform well on the rubber carpet. Patena being purchased by IEAH is a smart move on their behalf. This colt is extremely well-bred, and has a great deal of room for improvement.

The horse who needs to be respected right now is Silver City. This colt ran away with the Dixieland Stakes, making it look like a $30,000 public workout. This colt is no doubt a serious racehorse with a fantastic cruising rate, as well as closing kick. His connections and his critics doubt his stamina, but my gut says he not only will get two turns, but could possibly get 10 furlongs. He is raw talent, and we have only seen a few as impressive as he has been. On the note of his pedigree, he is by Unbridled's Song, the sire of Old Fashioned, out of a Mt. Livermore mare. Mt. Livermore was a sprinter whose progeny were best as milers (Eliza) and sprinters (Housebuster), but Silver City's granddam is bred very similarly to Storm Cat. In this, we see a Storm Bird mare out of a Secretariat-sired full-sister to brilliant turf router Academy Award. Throw in classy Mr. Prospector Blood farther back, and this pedigree is stacked in every direction. This horse is Derby material until I am proven wrong. I would love to see him thrown into the Fountain of Youth at a mile (a nice step up from 5.5 furlongs) and then a two-turn race.

A maiden to be watched intently is Keep Thinking. This colt has raced (very greenly) twice, and has always come running at the end. He has finished second and fourth in his two races (at Belmont and Hollywood). If he puts two and two together, he will be one of the best of his generation. He is by A.P. Indy out of the beautiful Denebola (Storm Cat-Coup de Genie), and was purchased for a session-topping $2.4 Million. Speaking of big sale toppers...

The big movers are $3.7 Million purchase Dunkirk, Theregoesjojo, Musket Man, Poltergeist, and Cliffy's Future. Dunkirk proved to be a colt worth every penny when easily winning his 7 furlong debut at Gulfstream, this week. He is a strapping son of Unbridled's Song out of the galloping Kentucky Oaks winner, Secret Status.

Theregoesjojo, despite his questionable name, looks like a very talented horse with a very strong finish. He also seems to have much more available than his races have shown us, and I look forward to his tangle with my #5, Musket Man. The latter is undefeated and runs in a very push-button fashion. His sire, Yonaguska, was very much the same way, but this colt looks to be able to outrun his pedigree. The 7 furlongs of the Pasco Stakes win (1/17/09) looked well within his range, as he galloped past the leaders and easily turned back a challenge from the outside.

Poltergeist looked like he finally had a chance to stretch his legs in his first attempt at two turns. He pulled out a huge win and a 95 Beyer, tied for the best two-turn speed figure this year by a sophomore. He is a gorgeous gray colt who looks like a cross between his red-hot sire, Tapit, and his damsire, Relaunch. His running style is much more like the former, but the way he lowers his head and stretches his stride is much more like the Relaunch side of his family. Watch out for this colt trained by Donnie Von Hemel. He has never been off the board in 5 starts and is on the improve. Also, I love his name. (There, I said it.)

Cliffy's Future ran a very unlucky second in an allowance at Aqueduct to a very classy and speedy colt, Pitched Perfectly, who had previously finished fourth to Haynesfield in an uncharacteristically dull performance. Pitched Perfectly is talented, but must show he is more than a speed horse to be genuinely considered. Cliffy's Future, on the other hand, darted from the tail end of the field, went through an opening at the rail and nearly ran down a tough counterpart. He seems to be putting it all together and, as expected with offspring of The Cliff's Edge, is excelling around two turns. Watch out for him in the Gotham.